[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051707
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED MAR 05 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1645 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 2N30W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 36W TO 3S42W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM EQ-6N BETWEEN 8W-20W...AND FROM 4S-EQ BETWEEN 40W-45W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-5N BETWEEN 20W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO
AS OF 1500 UTC...A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S LOUISIANA
NEAR 29N90W.  10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE N GULF
OF MEXICO.  FURTHER S ...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA TO
N OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ALONG 26N80W 23N87W.  A WARM FRONT
CONTINUES SW TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 21N89W 18N89W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF
THE FRONTS.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILT
OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 80W.  A BAND OF SIGNIFICANT UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE CENTRAL FROM 22N-28N.  SUBSIDENCE IS
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.  A 110 KT JETSTREAM IS OVER THE
NW GULF OF MEXICO FROM S TEXAS TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.  EXPECT
THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH E OVER S FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS
THEN GO STATIONARY.  EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO CONTINUE TO DRIFT
N TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA HAVE FRESH TRADES.  PATCHES OF
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTS THE CARIBBEAN
ESPECIALLY OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF 15N AND E OF 72W.  IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH RIDGE AXIS
ALONG 80W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND
CENTRAL AMERICA.  A BAND OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER NRN
SOUTH AMERICA.  EXPECT...CONTINUED BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS OVER INLAND YUCATAN PENINSULA FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN....
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO S
FLORIDA ALONG 32N75W 26N80W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT.  A 1032 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED NE OF BERMUDA NEAR 36N55W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER.  A
1007 MB LOW IS N OF THE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
35N36W.  A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 32N32W TO
26N36W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT.  IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 65W.  A
BASE OF A BROAD TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 25N
BETWEEN 35W-65W SUPPORTING THE SURFACE LOW AND FRONT FRONT OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLANTIC FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES TO W AFRICA.  EXPECT THE COLD
FRONT TO BE OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO MOVE E FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS
THEN BECOME STATIONARY WITH CONVECTION.  ALSO EXPECT THE LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO MOVE S TO NEAR 29N37W IN 24 HOURS
AND HAVE GALE FORCE WINDS N OF THE CENTER.

$$
FORMOSA


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