[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KTAE 311030
HLSTAE

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE GUSTAV LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
630 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008

...HURRICANE GUSTAV MOVING NORTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST GULF
OF MEXICO...

.AT 400 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.0 WEST...OR ABOUT 425 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED ON MONDAY. ON THIS
TRACK...GUSTAV WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
TODAY...AND MAKE LANDFALL ON THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...AND GUSTAV COULD REGAIN CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH
LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY...BUT
GUSTAV IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE UNTIL LANDFALL.

GUSTAV IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 958 MB...28.29 INCHES.


FLZ008-012-014-015-311700-
/O.UPG.KTAE.TR.A.1007.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KTAE.TR.W.1007.080831T1030Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WALTON-BAY-GULF-FRANKLIN-
630 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008 /530 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2008/

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

AT 4 AM CDT (5 AM EDT) THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS UPGRADED TO A
WARNING FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...INCLUDING COASTAL WALTON...BAY...
GULF...AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS:

COASTAL WALTON...BAY...GULF...FRANKLIN.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

NO ADDITIONAL HAZARDS ARE IN EFFECT AT THIS TIME.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

AT THIS TIME IS APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FOR SUSTAINED
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
HOWEVER...GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PANHANDLE
COAST...MAINLY IN SCATTERED FAST-MOVING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AS A PRECAUTION...SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS LIKE PATIO
FURNITURE AND GARBAGE CANS AS THEY ARE MORE PRONE TO BLOWING OVER.
TREE LIMBS...SMALL SHRUBS...AND EVEN A FEW POWER LINES CAN BE
BLOWN DOWN AS WELL. BE PREPARED FOR SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES TONIGHT AND
MONDAY.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

AS OF 6 AM CDT (5 AM CDT)...TIDES WERE NEAR NORMAL ALONG THE COAST
OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. SINCE GUSTAV IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL
WELL WEST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ON MONDAY...THE EXPECTED STORM
SURGE IS ONLY 2 TO 3 FEET ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM DESTIN
TO APALACHICOLA...MAINLY LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. FORTUNATELY
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WILL BE VERY LOW...REDUCING THE RISK OF
COASTAL FLOODING DUE TO STORM SURGE. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD TODAY AND TONIGHT...PEAKING EARLY MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF
THE EASTERLY WIND WAVES AND LARGE SOUTHERLY SWELLS FROM GUSTAV
WILL LEAD TO EXTREMELY ROUGH CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF
OF MEXICO. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO REACH UP TO 15
TO 20 FEET LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY...ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTH OF
DESTIN AND PANAMA CITY.

THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO HAZARDOUS ALONGSHORE AND RIP CURRENTS AS
WELL AS DANGEROUSLY HIGH SURF ALONG THE PANHANDLE BEACHES
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SURF HEIGHTS WILL PEAK AT 10 TO 13 FEET WITH
OCCASIONAL HIGHER SETS ON MONDAY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE LIFE
THREATENING TO ANYONE ENTERING THE WATER...INCLUDING EXPERIENCED
SURFERS.

...WINDS...

AS OF 5 AM CDT (6 AM CDT)...WINDS ALONG THE PANHANDLE COAST WERE
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH...BUT THESE WILL STEADILY
INCREASE DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SO FAR GUSTAV HAS BEEN
A WELL BEHAVED STORM IN TERMS OF IT FOLLOWING THE FORECAST TRACK.
IF THIS CONTINUES...IT IS UNLIKELY THAT SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS WILL AFFECT THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. HOWEVER...IT IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE WIND TO GUST TO 40 MPH IN FAST-MOVING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE OUTER FRINGES OF GUSTAV. IF GUSTAV WERE TO
TRACK FARTHER EAST OR EXPAND ITS WIND FIELD MORE THAN
EXPECTED...SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WOULD BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. THE PROBABILITY OF SUSTAINED
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS RANGE FROM 20 PERCENT AT CARABELLE TO
40 PERCENT AT DESTIN.

...INLAND FLOODING...

SINCE THE MAIN CORE OF GUSTAV WILL LIKELY REMAIN OFFSHORE THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. STORM
TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED...MAINLY IN HEAVY BUT FAST MOVING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST. HOWEVER...IF GUSTAV MOVES FARTHER EAST
THAN EXPECTED AND SPIRAL BANDS DEVELOP WELL TO THE EAST OF THE
STORM CENTER...THESE RAINFALL TOTALS WOULD HAVE TO BE REVISED
HIGHER.

...TORNADOES...

ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TODAY AND MONDAY AS THE
WINDS INCREASE. THERE IS A 5 PERCENT CHANCE OF A TORNADO OCCURRING
WITHIN 50 MILES OF ANY POINT IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. TORNADOES
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE FAST-MOVING AND OFTEN
DIFFICULT TO SEE DUE TO HEAVY RAIN.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 12 PM CDT (1 PM EDT).

$$

GMZ750-755-770-775-311700-
/O.UPG.KTAE.TR.A.0002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KTAE.TR.W.1007.080831T1030Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
630 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

AT 4 AM CDT (5 AM EDT) THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS UPGRADED TO A
WARNING FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...FROM DESTIN TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER AND OUT TO 60
MILES OFFSHORE.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS:

COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM...
COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM...WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO
60 NM.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

NO ADDITIONAL HAZARDS ARE IN EFFECT.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT DUE TO HAZARDOUS
BOATING CONDITIONS.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

AT 5 AM CDT (6 AM EDT)...THE SEAS AT THE OFFSHORE GULF BUOYS SOUTH
OF PANAMA CITY AND APALACHICOLA WERE AT 7 FEET. SEAS WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD TODAY AND TONIGHT...PEAKING EARLY MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF
THE EASTERLY WIND WAVES AND LARGE SOUTHERLY SWELLS FROM GUSTAV
WILL LEAD TO EXTREMELY ROUGH CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF
OF MEXICO. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO REACH UP TO 15
TO 20 FEET LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY...ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTH OF
DESTIN AND PANAMA CITY.

...WINDS...

AT 5 AM CDT (6 AM EDT)...THE WINDS AT THE OFFSHORE GULF BUOYS SOUTH OF
PANAMA CITY AND APALACHICOLA WERE OUT OF THE EAST AROUND 20 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SO FAR GUSTAV HAS BEEN A WELL BEHAVED STORM IN TERMS OF
IT FOLLOWING THE FORECAST TRACK. IF THIS CONTINUES THEN SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS WILL MOST LIKELY AFFECT THE PANHANDLE
COASTAL WATERS BEYOND 20 MILES OFFSHORE...WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT GUSTAV COULD
TRACK A LITTLE FARTHER EAST THAN EXPECTED OR INCREASE THE SIZE OF
ITS WIND FIELD. IF THIS HAPPENS...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS COULD
REACH THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF THE PANHANDLE AS WELL...MAINLY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. THE PROBABILITY OF SUSTAINED
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS RANGES FROM 30 PERCENT SOUTH OF
APALACHICOLA TO 50 PERCENT SOUTH OF DESTIN.

...TORNADOES...

ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TODAY AND MONDAY AS THE
WINDS INCREASE. THERE IS A 5 PERCENT CHANCE OF A TORNADO OCCURRING
WITHIN 50 MILES OF ANY POINT IN THE NORTHEAST GULF. TORNADOES
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE FAST-MOVING AND OFTEN
DIFFICULT TO SEE DUE TO HEAVY RAIN.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 12 PM CDT (1 PM EDT).

$$

FOURNIER



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