[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT32 KNHC 310548
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUSTAV INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  26A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008
200 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008

...GUSTAV MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...ISLA DE
JUVENTUD...MATANZAS...AND CIENFUEGOS.  THIS WARNING WILL LIKELY BE
DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM
EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER...
INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.  A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.  HURRICANE WARNINGS
WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PARTS OF THIS AREA THIS MORNING.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CENTRAL CUBAN PROVINCE OF VILLA CLARA.  THIS WATCH AND WARNING
WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA
KEYS WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE PANHANDLE
COAST OF FLORIDA FROM EAST OF THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER EASTWARD
TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.4 WEST OR ABOUT 485
MILES...780 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  ON
THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF GUSTAV IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO LATER TODAY...AND THEN MAKE LANDFALL ON THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE.  WHILE GUSTAV HAS WEAKENED DURING ITS PASSAGE OVER CUBA...IT
IS FORECAST TO RE-INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY AFTER
THAT TIME...BUT GUSTAV IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE
THROUGH LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200
MILES...325 KM.  A NOAA C-MAN OBSERVATION SITE AT PULASKI SHOAL IN
THE FLORIDA KEYS RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 56 MPH...91
KM/HR...WITH GUSTS TO 62 MPH...100 KM/HR.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AS ESTIMATED FROM AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER OBSERVATIONS IS 958 MB...28.29 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING AND WAVES ALONG THE COAST OF WESTERN
CUBA SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE.  A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE IN THE DRY TORTUGAS AS GUSTAV
PASSES TO ITS WEST.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE.  THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.  RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER FLORIDA KEYS AND EXTREME
SOUTHERN FLORIDA.  RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH GUSTAV MAY BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...23.5 N...84.4 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH



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