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WTNT32 KNHC 300549
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUSTAV INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  21A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008
200 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008

...GUSTAV STRENGTHENS...BEARING DOWN ON THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND
FOR THE WESTERN CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...
CIUDAD DE LA HABANA AND THE ISLA DE JUVENTUD. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL CUBAN PROVINCES
OF MATANZAS...CIENFUEGOS...AND VILLA CLARA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA
KEYS WEST OF KEY WEST TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CENTRAL CUBAN PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS...CIENFUEGOS...VILLA CLARA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE
AVILA...AND CAMAGUEY.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS
WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO KEY WEST.

INTERESTS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GUSTAV.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.7 WEST OR ABOUT 50
MILES...85 KM...NORTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 315 MILES...500
KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS THIS MORNING...THEN MOVE OVER WESTERN CUBA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
EARLY SUNDAY.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE PLANE INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE.  STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS...AND
GUSTAVE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES WESTERN
CUBA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160
MILES...260 KM.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE RECENTLY REPORTED A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 971 MB...28.67 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
IS POSSIBLE IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH 14 TO 19 FEET POSSIBLE NEAR
WHERE THE CENTER OF GUSTAV CROSSES WESTERN CUBA...INCLUDING ISLA DE
JUVENTUD.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN
CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 25 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES.  THE RAINFALL THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHING ACROSS JAMAICA
AND EASTERN CUBA TODAY.  PRECIPITATION FROM GUSTAV MAY BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA LATER TODAY.

REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...19.7 N...80.7 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA



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