[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT32 KNHC 291457
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008
1100 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008

...GUSTAV POISED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR WESTERN CUBA...FOR THE PROVINCES OF ISLA DE
JUVENTUD...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...AND CIUDAD DE LA
HABANA...AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL CUBA...FOR THE
PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...CIENFUEGOS...VILLA CLARA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...AND CAMAGUEY.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF GRANMA.  A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.  A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 1100 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE
WARNING FOR JAMAICA TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.8 WEST OR ABOUT 165
MILES...265 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 450 MILES
...725 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR.  A
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...WITH A CONTINUED
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  ON THIS TRACK...THE
CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS LATER
TODAY...OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF CUBA ON SATURDAY...AND INTO
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND
GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.  GUSTAV COULD
BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING WESTERN CUBA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREAS.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND WESTERN
CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 25 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER SOUTHERN CUBA.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...18.6 N...78.8 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB



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