[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT32 KNHC 290548
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  17A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008
200 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008

...CENTER OF GUSTAV EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK OVER WATER SOON...

HURRICANE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS.  A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN CUBA...FOR THE
PROVINCES OF ISLA DE JUVENTUD...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...AND
CIUDAD DE LA HABANA.  A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN
36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF
GRANMA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF
MATANZAS.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV WAS
LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF JAMAICA NEAR LATITUDE 17.9
NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.7 WEST OR ABOUT 60 MILES...95 KM...WEST OF
KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 255 MILES...415 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
GRAND CAYMAN.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR.  A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.  ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL LEAVE
JAMAICA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS LATER TODAY...AND APPROACH WESTERN CUBA ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...AND GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER
TODAY OR TOMORROW.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
DATA IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 25 INCHES POSSIBLE.  THESE RAINS WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN
CUBA.  RAINFALL WILL BE DIMINISHING OVER HAITI TONIGHT...WITH AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...17.9 N...77.7 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 8 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA



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