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WTNT32 KNHC 281446
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008
1100 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2008

...GUSTAV CLOSING IN ON JAMAICA...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF
GRANMA.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF GUSTAV.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.1 WEST OR ABOUT 45
MILES... 75 KM...EAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 350 MILES...560
KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR...AND A
CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED TODAY.  A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST
IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  ON THIS TRACK...THE
CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER JAMAICA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AND NEAR OR OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS FRIDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.  GUSTAV COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE MOVING OVER JAMAICA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON EARLIER AIRCRAFT
DATA IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 25 INCHES POSSIBLE.  THESE RAINS WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN
CUBA.  RAINFALL WILL BE DIMINISHING OVER HAITI TODAY...WITH AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...17.9 N...76.1 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 5 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB



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