[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT42 KNHC 272039
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008
500 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2008

THE LATEST AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION INTO GUSTAV INDICATES
THAT THE CYCLONE HAS WEAKENED A BIT WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 999
MB AND A PEAK SFMR WIND OF ABOUT 45 KT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
LOWERED TO 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  DESPITE THE SHORT-TERM
WEAKENING...ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
RE-INTENSIFICATION ONCE GUSTAV MOVES AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA...LIKELY
TONIGHT.  STILL...THERE REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE
INTENSITY MODELS WITH THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS SHOWING ROBUST
STRENGTHENING...AND THE STATISTICALLY-BASED SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS
THAT FORECAST ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING.  GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ESSENTIALLY SPLITS THE
DIFFERENCE AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

GUSTAV CONTINUES TO CRAWL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION
OF 300/03.  THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED.
DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW A MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO EASTWARD OVER FLORIDA AND INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC.  THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN A WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  IN 2-3 DAYS...THE RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST...TAKING GUSTAV OVER OR VERY NEAR WESTERN CUBA AND
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.  BY DAY 5...SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE
NOW SUGGESTING THAT THE STEERING CURRENTS COULD WEAKEN RESULTING IN
A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED.  IN GENERAL...THE TRACK MODELS HAVE
NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY AND THE NEW
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THERE STILL REMAINS SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING GUSTAV'S ULTIMATE TRACK AT DAYS 3-5...AND IT
IS MUCH TOO SOON TO KNOW WHAT IMPACT THIS SYSTEM MAY HAVE ON THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      27/2100Z 19.1N  74.4W    45 KT
 12HR VT     28/0600Z 19.1N  75.2W    50 KT
 24HR VT     28/1800Z 19.2N  76.6W    60 KT
 36HR VT     29/0600Z 19.5N  78.1W    70 KT
 48HR VT     29/1800Z 20.2N  79.8W    80 KT
 72HR VT     30/1800Z 22.0N  83.5W   100 KT
 96HR VT     31/1800Z 25.5N  86.5W   100 KT
120HR VT     01/1800Z 28.5N  88.5W   100 KT

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH

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