[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 271805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM AT 27/1800 UTC IS NEAR 18.8N
74.4W...OR ABOUT 140 MILES/225 KM WEST OF PORT-AU-PRINCE HAITI
AND ABOUT 90 MILES/145 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.
GUSTAV IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 4 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC
AND/OR THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 72W AND 76W. THIS COVERS
THE CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS AND PRETTY MUCH ALL OF HAITI. A SECOND
AREA OF STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS OVER THE WATER FROM
16N TO 18N BETWEEN 75W AND 77W TO THE SOUTHEAST OF JAMAICA.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W/33W SOUTH OF 21N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. THIS WAVE AND THE 46W/47W WAVE HAVE BEEN
MOVING THROUGH A BROAD AREA OF A MONSOONAL TROUGH EXTENDING TO
THE SOUTHWEST FROM THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA FROM 10N TO 20N.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
14N TO 20N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE MONSOONAL TROUGH ARE WITHIN 15 NM TO 30 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 12N BETWEEN 29W AND 31W...FROM 13N TO 14N BETWEEN
26W AND 27W...AND FROM 15N TO 16N BETWEEN 26W AND 27W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W/47W SOUTH OF 17N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYER CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W/80W SOUTH OF 13N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS FAR AWAY FROM GUSTAV.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 95W SOUTH OF 20N...FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS THE WESTERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC INTO
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. IT IS MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT.
A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS MEXICO BETWEEN THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND 90W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
IS ON TOP OF THIS AREA AT THE SAME TIME. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N TO THE COAST INCLUDING IN THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC BETWEEN 94W AND 97W.

...THE ITCZ...
18N16W 17N22W 9N40W 8N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N TO 20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 23W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 55W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL GEORGIA
TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF
WATERS ABOUT 150 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. THE
TROUGH CONTINUES TO A COMPARATIVELY MUCH WEAKER EXTENT TO THE
MEXICO GULF COAST ALONG 20N. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 85W TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS
NEAR 28N90W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN
THE FLORIDA WEST COAST ALONG 83W AND 94W. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE MEXICO GULF COAST FROM 21N TO 23N
BETWEEN 97W AND THE COASTLINE. OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN FLORIDA AND 97W.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND AT THE UPPER LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE COVER THE REST OF THE AREA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV HAS ENTERED WATER AGAIN ON THE NORTHERN
SIDE OF THE PENINSULA OF SOUTHERN HAITI. AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 23N83W JUST OFF THE
NORTHWESTERN TIP OF CUBA...ACCOUNTING FOR ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
IN THE EAST AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND FOR THE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TO THE WEST OF T.S. GUSTAV. THE BASE OF AN
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DEEP LAYER TROUGH
REACHES PUERTO RICO. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 27N62W 23N65W
19N66W. THE CYCLONIC CENTER WITH THIS TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY IS NEAR 22N65W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE
WITHIN 60 NM TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND POSSIBLY REACHING
THE NORTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND FROM 26/2315 UTC
UNTIL 27/0315 UTC. THAT PRECIPITATION DISSIPATED. STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS IN
THE INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO FROM 67W EASTWARD. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 19N TO 25N BETWEEN 62W AND 70W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 22N65W TO PUERTO RICO. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS ALONG 27N62W 23N65W 19N66W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM
19N TO 25N BETWEEN 62W AND 70W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS ABOUT 630 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE 22N65W WATER VAPOR
CYCLONIC CENTER. A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 20N57W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 15N60W 20N55W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE LINGERING PRECIPITATION FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN 50W
AND 58W. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ALONG 33N77W 30N75W. SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 31N TO
33N BETWEEN 76W AND 77W. A LONGWAVE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 34N68W TO 29N68W. A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
NORTH OF THE AREA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 30N TO 33N
BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW
COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. ONE CYCLONIC
CENTER IS NEAR 30N44W AND A SECOND CENTER IS NEAR 28N53W.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 18N40W 14N41W 12N43W
6N52W.

$$
MT




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