[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
HURRICANE GUSTAV IS CENTERED NEAR 18.5N 73.3W BASED ON RADAR
FROM GRAN PIEDRA CUBA AT 27/0000 UTC OR ABOUT 52 NM WEST OF PORT
AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT 135 NM SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MOVING NORTHWEST AT 6 KT. LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AS
REPORTED FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
992 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED HAVE DECREASED TO 65 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT MAKING GUSTAV A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.  PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC
AND/OR THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM
OF THE CENTER WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 67W-72W. AS GUSTAV BEGINS
TRACKING OVER LAND THIS EVENING THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR A GRADUAL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT
APPROACHES THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND EASTERN CUBA BY WEDNESDAY.
GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4
TO 8 INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...EASTERN CUBA...AND JAMAICA...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE
RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W/27W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT.
THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE WITH A BROAD MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING EVIDENT ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-19N
BETWEEN 22W-26W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 15-20 KT. NO
ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS NOTED. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 39W-43W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 74W S OF 13N
MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE AND THE ITCZ. IT IS MOSTLY INLAND OVER COLOMBIA...WITH
ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS
ALONG THE NRN COLOMBIA COAST BETWEEN 72W-77W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 90W/91W FROM THE WRN
YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE ERN PACIFIC REGION S OF 20N MOVING
W NEAR 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
LOCATED ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND GUATEMALA.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 17N16W 16N24W 12N28W 8N39W 8N42W
10N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE W
AFRICAN COAST FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 8W-15W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 13N27W TO 11N35W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 39W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE REMNANT LOW OF FAY REMAINS INLAND OVER NRN ALABAMA/ERN
TENNESSEE MOVING NE WITH A SURFACE TROUGH TRAILING INTO THE GULF
WATERS NEAR PANAMA CITY FLORIDA SW TO 28N90W GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
MULTILAYERED CLOUDINESS REMAINS ACROSS THE NRN GULF N OF 26N E
OF 93W WITH THIS SURFACE TROUGH. WEAK UPPER TROUGHING DIPS INTO
THE NW GULF EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE COVERING
THE GULF W OF 92W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE S OF THIS TROUGH IN THE WRN
GULF IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
20N-25N BETWEEN 95W-98W. AN UPPER HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED IN THE
FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 23N80W COVERING THE ERN GULF AND FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS AIDING IN SUPPORTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER THE SRN
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ACROSS WRN CUBA AND ADJACENT COASTAL SE
GULF WATERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS HURRICANE GUSTAV IN
THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND ACROSS HISPANIOLA...SEE SPECIAL
FEATURES ABOVE. AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA NEAR 23N80W AND IS PROVIDING UPPER OUTFLOW ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 14N-23N BETWEEN 65W-80W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BETWEEN ERN CUBA AND JAMAICA FROM
19N-21N BETWEEN 75W-79W DUE TO THE UPPER DIFFLUENT PATTERN. AN
UPPER LOW LOCATED IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS TROUGHING TO NEAR 20N70W
AND IS PROVIDING AN AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE ERN
GREATER ANTILLES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS
HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO PARTLY DUE TO DIFFLUENCE FROM THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH AND UPPER OUTFLOW FROM GUSTAV. THE ITCZ AXIS
CROSSES THE EXTREME SW CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS S
OF 13N AND W OF 72W TO INLAND OVER NW VENEZUELA...NRN
COLOMBIA...THROUGH COSTA RICA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE FAR W ATLC W OF 70W ANCHORED IN THE
FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 23N80W. BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC COVERING THE AREA N OF 20N FROM 55W-70W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG
31N61W TO 23N67W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 21N-26N BETWEEN 60W-64W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 64W-72W
INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. AN UPPER RIDGE IS
ANCHORED ACROSS THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N64W. A WEAK 1010
MB SURFACE LOW IS BENEATH THIS UPPER RIDGE NEAR 21N57W WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 52W-55W. A SECOND BUT BENIGN UPPER TROUGH
COVERS THE E/CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 29N44W EXTENDING INTO THE
TROPICS TO A SECOND UPPER ELONGATED LOW NEAR 11N45W. AN UPPER
RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC ANCHORED S OF THE
CANARY ISLANDS. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE ATLC N OF
25N AND E OF 50W ANCHORED BY A SERIES OF HIGHS N OF THE REGION
WITH A NARROW RIDGE EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA TO NEAR 29N74W NORTH
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE W ATLC.

$$
HUFFMAN




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net