[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 261759
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE GUSTAV MADE LANDFALL ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF
HAITI. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING
POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. THE EYE OF HURRICANE GUSTAV
MADE LANDFALL ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI ABOUT
10 MILES/16 KM WEST OF JACMEL...SHORTLY AFTER 100 PM EDT...
1700 UTC. THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV AT 26/1800 UTC WAS
LOCATED JUST INLAND NEAR 18.2N 72.8W OR ABOUT 40 MILES/60 KM
SOUTHWEST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI...AND ABOUT 190 MILES/310 KM
SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA. HURRICANE GUSTAV IS MOVING
NORTHWEST 8 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 80 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 981 MB. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND/OR THE PUBLIC
ADVISORY MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 16.5N TO
THE HAITI NEAR 18.5N BETWEEN 71W AND 73W. HEAVY RAIN IS REACHING
SOUTHERN COASTAL HAITI...AND THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. OTHER SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ALONG 70W FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH...AND OFF THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC NEAR 20N71W. SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
BETWEEN 67W AND 72W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE WAS PLACED ALONG 25W SOUTH OF
20N NOW MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH A BROAD AREA OF A MONSOONAL
TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHWEST FROM AFRICA. NUMEROUS STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 25W AND 30W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 18W AND
30W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W SOUTH OF 16N
MOVING WEST ABOUT 15 KT. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYER CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION. ITCZ PRECIPITATION COVERS THE AREA FROM 6N TO
10N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W/72W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WELL AWAY FROM THE WAVE. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WELL INLAND SOUTH OF 9N IN WESTERN
VENEZUELA AND EASTERN COLOMBIA.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W/89W FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT.
THE REMNANTS OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER AND A TROUGH ARE MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA TOWARD 90W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FROM 25/2115 UTC
TO NOW THAT STRETCHED FROM NICARAGUA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
HAS DISSIPATED. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN BELIZE.

...THE ITCZ...
17N16W 16N24W 8N38W 7N50W 8N63W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN 35W AND 47W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS MEXICO WEST OF 98W.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 28N92W CYCLONIC
CENTER TO 26N95W TO 22N96W ALONG THE MEXICO COAST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 21N TO 23N BETWEEN 96W AND 98W...AND
NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND NEAR 85W AND 95W...
WITH A 30N88W 28N91W 28N95W SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS TO THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST OF THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF FAY. UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
HURRICANE GUSTAV MADE LANDFALL ABOUT ONE HOUR AGO ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 10.5N TO 12N BETWEEN 75W AND 77W
WITH A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE
PRECIPITATION. SHOWERS AND CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE WATERS
NORTH OF PUERTO RICO...AND EVEN ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO
THE EAST AND SAINT CROIX TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION ARE ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A DEEP LAYER
TROUGH ORIGINATING NEAR 25N67W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EXTENDS
FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 25N67W TO 19N67W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N59W 26N63W 21N66W. SCATTERED STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 61W AND 63W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 22N TO 23N BETWEEN 63W AND
69W. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS NEAR 20N56W AT
26/1200 UTC. THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES DO NOT SHOW
A CLEAR CYCLONIC CENTER. BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING IS A BETTER
DESCRIPTION FOR THE AREA FROM 18N TO 24N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 17N TO 23N BETWEEN 51W AND 56W. A SEPARATE UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CENTER IS NEAR 28N45W. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA
FROM 24N TO 33N BETWEEN 39W AND 50W.

$$
MT


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