[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV AT 25/2100 UTC IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
NEAR 16.3N 71.0W OR ABOUT 180 MILES...290 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI. GUSTAV IS MOVING NORTHWEST 12 KT. THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB. PLEASE READ THE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND/OR THE PUBLIC ADVISORY
MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES OVER
HISPANIOLA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 25 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE INTENSE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. PRESENTLY MOST CONVECTION IS N OF THE
CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER
PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA FROM 15N-21N BETWEEN 65W-74W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A 1008 MB LOW IS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA NEAR 15N23W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS MOSTLY S OF THE LOW
CENTER FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 21W-28W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W S OF 19N MOVING W AT 15 KT. A 1009
MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N33W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE LOW CENTER.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM
6N-10N BETWEEN 35W-40W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 67W SOUTH OF 14N
MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS VERY CLOSE TO T.S. GUSTAV AND
IS NOW HARD TO TRACK. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING
WEST 10-15 KT. SOME LOW CLOUD TURNING IS NOTED OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN S OF W CUBA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 16N-20N
BETWEEN 81W-85W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA
AND COSTA RICA FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 77W-84W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA FROM 10N-17N
BETWEEN 84W-90W.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 18N16W 9N40W 9N50W 12N62W.
BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED ON THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 28W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IS STARTING TO BUILD IN OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. T.D.FAY IS NOW INLAND OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI MOVING
ENE AT 5 KT WITH 22 KT WINDS AND HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. CONVECTION IS MOSTLY E OF THE CENTER AND
INLAND FROM FLORIDA TO TENNESSEE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OVER NE MEXICO AND THE NW GULF OF MEXICO FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN
96W-101W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM
19N-22N BETWEEN 87W-89W...AND OVER W CUBA FROM 22N-24N BETWEEN
82W-84W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER
TEXAS NEAR 29N96W. CYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDS E TO THE W GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 90W. A STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER W CUBA NEAR 22N84W THAT WILL AFFECT THE TRACK OF T.S.
GUSTAV. EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER SE TEXAS...THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
T.S. GUSTAV IS THE MAIN FEATURE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA PRODUCING
A GOOD AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION. SEE ABOVE. GUSTAV IS ALSO
FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN 24 HOURS. TWO TROPICAL WAVES
ARE ALSO OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE. OTHER THAN THE
PRECIPITATION ALREADY MENTIONED...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 72W-77W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER W CUBA...AND UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER GUSTAV ARE THE MAIN FEATURES. EXPECT LITTLE
UPPER LEVEL CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL
AMERICA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NRN BAHAMAS FROM
23N-25N BETWEEN 77W-79W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS FROM 29N59W TO 20N66W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 56W-63W. A NEW SURFACE LOW IS DEVELOPING E
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 19N53W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 50W-55W.
FURTHER SOUTH...THE ITCZ AND TROPICAL WAVES ARE THE MAIN WEATHER
PRODUCERS IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
RIDGING IS N OF 20N AND W OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE
W ATLANTIC NEAR 27N65W. DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS AIDING IN
THE CONVECTION FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 56W-63W. AN UPPER HIGH IS
FURTHER E OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 19N52W. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 16N36W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 31N32W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS ALSO
NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 26N14W. EXPECT CONTINUED
PRECIPITATION ON ALL MENTIONED FEATURES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA


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