[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250525
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SE CARIBBEAN WITH A 1009 MB
LOW ANALYZED NEAR 13N67W MOVING WNW AT 10-15 KT. ALTHOUGH THE
SYSTEM IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS...CONVENTIONAL
AND REMOTELY-SENSED SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT THE SYSTEM
DOES NOT HAVE A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
MON OR TUE. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON MON...IF NECESSARY.
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM FROM THE
CENTER IN THE NW QUADRANT. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 71W
INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES AND PUERTO RICO.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A 1009 MB LOW WAS ADDED AT 25/0000 UTC NE OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS NEAR 17N22W. THIS LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF
DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE WITH BROAD MID LEVEL TURNING. NO
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W/33W S OF 19N WITH A 1009 MB LOW ALONG
THE WAVE NEAR 12N MOVING W 15-20 KT. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN
31W-35W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL/W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM
27N56W THROUGH A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 23N58W CONTINUING S ACROSS
BARBADOS TO 7N59W MOVING NW 15-20 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NEAR THE LOW FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 55W-59W AND
FROM 11N-15N W OF 58W TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 19N16W 13N29W 7N45W 12N62W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN
34W-37W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
9N-13N BETWEEN THE COAST OF W AFRICA TO 23W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR
CONVECTION ARE FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 17W-21W...FROM 7N-10N
BETWEEN 27W-34W...AND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ FROM 41W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
T.D.FAY REMAINS INLAND OVER S MISSISSIPPI BUT IS GENERATING
HEAVY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GULF
WATERS N OF 28N FROM THE FLORIDA/ALABAMA BORDER TO VERMILION BAY
LOUISIANA. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
COVERING THE N/CENTRAL GULF WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING W/E
ACROSS MEXICO OVER THE W GULF. AN UPPER HIGH IS ANCHORED IN THE
FLORIDA STRAITS COVERING THE SE GULF. THIS SCENARIO IS KEEPING
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF MOSTLY QUIET TONIGHT WITH SOME HIGH
THIN CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTTING THE AREA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MID/UPPER LOW IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N67W AND IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE.
OTHERWISE...THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY EASTERLY UPPER FLOW.
DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE COVERS ALL BUT THE NW CARIBBEAN AS
INDICATED BY MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION. THUS...THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES AS WELL AS CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DOTTING THE AREA W OF 82W.
SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS MOVING OFF W CUBA INTO THE CARIBBEAN WATERS
N OF 21N BETWEEN 81W-85W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLC ANCHORED N OF THE REGION
COVERING THE AREA FROM 60W-80W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 26N-31N BETWEEN 66W-72W WITH
ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR ACTIVITY FROM OVER THE BAHAMA
ISLANDS TO THE COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN 74W-79W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS
ANCHORED IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 22N52W WITH A SECOND UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE E ATLC ANCHORED NEAR 29N33W. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM 16N-25N BETWEEN 49W-55W.
A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC N OF 25N E OF 70W ANCHORED BY A
SERIES OF HIGHS N OF THE REGION.

$$
WALLACE




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