[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT41 KNHC 240258
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
1100 PM EDT SAT AUG 23 2008

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND WSR-88D RADAR DATA SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION HAS CONTINUED MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 285/7.  RAIN
BANDS HAVE BECOME RELATIVELY FEW AND FAR BETWEEN OVER WATER...AND
ALL AVAILABLE DATA SUGGEST THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM
FORCE ARE NO LONGER OCCURRING.  FAY IS DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION
WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 30 KT...ALTHOUGH RATHER GUSTY CONDITIONS
PERSIST EVEN OVER LAND AREAS.  SINCE FAY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER
LAND...THE INTENSITY FORECAST INDICATES SLOW WEAKENING...ALTHOUGH
DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO THE GULF OF MEXICO...FAY COULD REMAIN A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR A FEW MORE DAYS.

THE DOWNGRADE BASED ON WINDS DOES NOT CHANGE THE FACT THAT THIS
SLOW-MOVING SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND
FLOODING HAZARD FOR SEVERAL DAYS TO COME...ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST AND ADJACENT AREAS WELL INLAND.  THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST
BY ALL MODELS TO CONTINUE MOVING IN A GENERAL WESTWARD DIRECTION
FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO
ITS NORTH.  AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...MOST MODELS FORECAST THE
STEERING CURRENTS TO COLLAPSE...LEAVING FAY TO PERHAPS MEANDER OR
EVEN REMAIN STATIONARY IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...FURTHER EXACERBATING
THE RAINFALL AND FLOODING POTENTIAL.  MODELS GREATLY DISAGREE ON
WHAT BECOMES OF FAY IN THE 3 TO 5 DAY TIME FRAME...WITH SOME...SUCH
AS THE GFS...FORECASTING A BRISK MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AHEAD
OF THE NEXT MID-LATITUDE TROUGH...BUT WITH OTHERS CALLING FOR FAY
TO HANG AROUND THE GULF COAST STATES THROUGH 120 HOURS.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS A COMPROMISE...SHOWING A VERY SLOW
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION LATE IN THE FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      24/0300Z 30.9N  87.1W    30 KT...INLAND
 12HR VT     24/1200Z 31.3N  88.6W    30 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     25/0000Z 31.2N  90.3W    25 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     25/1200Z 31.0N  91.0W    25 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     26/0000Z 31.0N  91.0W    25 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     27/0000Z 31.5N  90.5W    25 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     28/0000Z 33.0N  89.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     29/0000Z 35.0N  88.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER KNABB



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