[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 232355
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT AUG 23 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY AT 23/2100 UTC IS NEAR 30.6N
86.3W IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ABOUT 105 MILES...
175 KM...EAST OF MOBILE ALABAMA AND ABOUT 55 MILES... 85
KM...EAST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA. T.S. FAY IS MOVING WEST 6 KT.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. PLEASE READ
THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. FAY IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER
THE NEXT TWO DAYS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE NORTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHWESTERN
GEORGIA...THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF BOTH MISSISSIPPI
AND ALABAMA...AND EASTERN LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE.  ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA. PRESENTLY
MOST HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS E OF THE STORM CENTER IN RAIN BANDS.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-34N
BETWEEN 80W-85W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24W MOVING WESTWARD
THROUGH THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AT 10 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM
13N-20N BETWEEN 23W-30W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22N50W 16N47W 10N48W
MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. A 1012 MB LOW IS ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR
20N49W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE LOW CENTER
FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 47W-49W.

THE 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
NEAR 11N56W MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 53W-58W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING
WEST 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 6N-15N BETWEEN 60W-64W...AND FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 64W-68W.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 18N16W 9N33W 13N48W 11N60W.
BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED ON THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 12W-16W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 27W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
T.S.FAY IS JUST INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND IS SHOWING
THE FIRST SIGNS OF WEAKENING. SEE ABOVE. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER S TEXAS...NE MEXICO...AND THE W GULF OF
MEXICO FROM 23N-30N BETWEEN 97W-101W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
INLAND OVER W CUBA FROM 22N-23N BETWEEN 80W-84W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER N MEXICO NEAR 25N100W.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDS E TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
90W. OUTFLOW FROM T.S. FAY EXTENDS N TO TENNESSEE AND S TO
CENTRAL FLORIDA. ANOTHER SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER
W CUBA NEAR 22N82W. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION WITH FAY AND
MORE CONVECTION OVER S TEXAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE.
OTHERWISE FRESH TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER N
COLOMBIA...AND NW VENEZUELA FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 70W-76W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS OVER E CUBA FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 75W-80W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO
HONDURAS...AND OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 7N-16N BETWEEN
77W-90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF PUERTO RICO
NEAR 20N66W. EASTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
AND CENTRAL AMERICA S OF 20N AND W OF 75W. EXPECT CONTINUED
CONVECTION OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MOSTLY EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS NOTED OVER THE ATLANTIC FROM
23N-32N FROM W AFRICA TO 80W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 26N BETWEEN 65W-80W. AN
UPPER HIGH IS FURTHER E OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 24N58W. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 29N53W.
DIFFLUENCE NE OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN 51W-53W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 28N45W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 28N30W. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVES AND
TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA


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