[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT41 KNHC 232034
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
500 PM EDT SAT AUG 23 2008

SURFACE...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT THE
CENTER OF FAY IS INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. ALTHOUGH THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 40 KNOTS...THE CIRCULATION IS
GRADUALLY SPINNING DOWN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS CONFINED MOSTLY TO
CONVECTIVE BANDS TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. NOW THAT THE CENTER IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE FARTHER INLAND WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED.

FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THEREAFTER...STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO COLLAPSE AND FAY
COULD REMAIN MEANDERING FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 5 DAYS. ALTHOUGH BY
THEN...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE A DEPRESSION OR A REMNANT
LOW...IT WILL STILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS ALONG ITS
PATH AND THE EMPHASIS SHOULD CONTINUE ON THESE RAINS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      23/2100Z 30.6N  86.3W    40 KT
 12HR VT     24/0600Z 30.9N  87.5W    35 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     24/1800Z 31.2N  89.7W    30 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     25/0600Z 31.0N  91.0W    30 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     25/1800Z 31.0N  91.0W    25 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     26/1800Z 31.0N  91.0W    25 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     27/1800Z 32.5N  90.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     28/1800Z 34.5N  89.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

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