[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 231805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT AUG 23 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY AT 23/1800 UTC IS NEAR 30.5N
85.9W IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ABOUT 75 MILES/125 KM EAST OF
PENSACOLA FLORIDA. T.S. FAY IS MOVING WEST 6 KT. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC
AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. PLEASE ALSO PAY ATTENTION TO LOCAL NWS
OFFICE WARNINGS/WATCHES/BULLETINS ABOUT RAINFALL AND FLOODING
FOR YOUR SPECIFIC AREA. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 29N INLAND TO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND
SOUTHERN ALABAMA NEAR 32N BETWEEN 83W AND 87W. A SMALLER AREA
OF PRECIPITATION IS ABOUT 300 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
CENTER...WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES WARMING DURING THE LAST
4 HOURS OR SO. SHOWERS ARE IN WESTERN FLORIDA FROM 26N TO 28N
BETWEEN 81W AND 82W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ALSO ARE OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTH OF 23N EAST OF 90W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W/24W MOVING WESTWARD
THROUGH THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS 10 TO 15 KT. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS
FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 23W AND 30W. ONE AREA OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS WITHIN A 15 TO 30 NM RADIUS OF 10.5N 28.5W. BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AROUND THIS WAVE COVER THE AREA
FROM 14N TO 21N BETWEEN 22W AND 31W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21N49W 16N47W 10N46W
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
19.5N ALONG THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN 48W AND 50W.

THE 1010 MB AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS 11N55W MOVING WEST 10 TO
15 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 10.5N
BETWEEN 54W AND 56W. OTHER NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ITCZ COVER THE AREA FROM 9.5N TO 13N
BETWEEN 54W AND 60W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
SPREADING ACROSS TRINIDAD AT THIS TIME. EXPECT HEAVY RAINFALL
TO SOME DEGREE IF THIS ENTIRE AREA OF ITCZ CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION MAINTAINS ITSELF AND MOVES WESTWARD TOWARD
VENEZUELA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W/64W SOUTH OF 17N
MOVING WEST 10 KT. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 66W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N TO 15N
BETWEEN 66W AND 69W.

...THE ITCZ...
11N16W 10N30W 13N46W 12N54W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS WITHIN
15 TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 6N24W 6N30W 5N40W...AND FROM
3N TO 8N BETWEEN 40W AND47W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 9N TO 13N BETWEEN 54W AND 60W...AND
SPREADING ACROSS TRINIDAD.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ON TOP OF T.S. FAY MOVES
SOUTHEASTWARD ON TOP OF THE BAHAMAS. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM ARKANSAS INTO LOUISIANA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
A SECOND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS IN
NORTHERN MEXICO NEAR 29N105W. A TROUGH FROM THIS CENTER EXTENDS
TO 28N101W...ABOUT 90 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NUEVO LAREDO MEXICO.
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS MEXICO SOUTH OF 26N.
SOME UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALSO SPILLS INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE ARKANSAS-LOUISIANA TROUGH.
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA SOUTH OF T.S. FAY.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 20N67W...ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE
MONA PASSAGE TO 16N70W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N TO 17 BETWEEN 66W AND
71W...AND ONE PRECIPITATION CELL IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ALONG 70W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER HAS MOVED FROM THE WEST CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE LAST 16 HOURS OR SO INTO NORTHEASTERN
NICARAGUA AT THE PRESENT TIME. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS CENTER
COVERS THE AREA TO 20N WEST OF 80W...AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA ALSO. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS IN
GENERAL ARE SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 75W AND CENTRAL AMERICA. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 81W AND THE COASTS OF
PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. THE ITCZ ALSO IS IN THE VICINITY.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 34N69W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER TO 29N69W 25N71W TO 20N72W. SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 23N71W 25N66W 28N62W BEYOND
31N62W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA FROM 22N TO 24N ON THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE 34N69W 20N72W TROUGH...PROBABLY WITH SOME AFTERNOON
HEATING UNDER SOME UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. A MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N52W TO A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 27N54W TO 24N54W 21N58W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 52W AND 54W. AN EASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR 29N28W. ONE BRANCH OF A TROUGH EXTENDS TO 33N26W.
ANOTHER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER TO 25N30W AND
20N34W.

$$
MT

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