[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT41 KNHC 231439
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2008

FAY HAS CONTINUED TO MOVED WESTWARD WITH HALF OF ITS CIRCULATION
OVER WATER AND HALF OVER LAND. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT
THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS BECOMING LESS DEFINED AND MORE
DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE
BANDS WITH THE STRONGEST ONE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 40 KNOTS AND BECAUSE A PORTION OF THE
CIRCULATION IS OVER WATER...FAY IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH FOR THE THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...AS
THE CIRCULATION MOVES FARTHER INLAND A MORE DEFINITE WEAKENING
SHOULD BEGIN.

THERE HAS NOT BEEN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN TRACK AND FAY IS MOVING
WESTWARD OT 275 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS. FAY CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY
MIDDLE-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
THIS HIGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN IN 3 DAYS OR SO. THEREAFTER...FAY
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AND SHOULD BEGIN TO DRIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY AS A REMNANT LOW. THIS IS BASICALLY THE SOLUTION
PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND TRACK GUIDANCE. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

REGARDLESS OF ITS EXACT TRACK...FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLOOD HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      23/1500Z 30.1N  85.6W    40 KT
 12HR VT     24/0000Z 30.1N  86.8W    40 KT
 24HR VT     24/1200Z 30.5N  88.4W    40 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     25/0000Z 30.6N  89.5W    40 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     25/1200Z 30.7N  90.5W    35 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     26/1200Z 31.0N  91.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     27/1200Z 32.5N  90.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     28/1200Z 33.5N  89.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

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