[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT31 KNHC 230256
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER  30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2008

...FAY CENTERED OVER WATER AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER...
...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN
GEORGIA...

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE GULF
COAST OF FLORIDA FROM ARIPEKA NORTHWARD TO SUWANEE RIVER HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED...AND THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM WEST OF
DESTIN TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT
FOR THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST FROM SUWANEE RIVER FLORIDA WESTWARD
TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 1100 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ISSUED FROM WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
THIS WATCH DOES NOT INCLUDE LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN OR THE CITY OF NEW
ORLEANS.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.2 WEST OR ABOUT 50
MILES... 80 KM...SOUTH OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA AND ABOUT 50 MILES...
 75 KM...EAST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA.

FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...TAKING FAY NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
COAST ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND WSR-88D
VELOCITIES INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE SLIGHTLY
INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND FAY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM INTO SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150
KM...MAINLY TO THE SOUTH FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
STILL POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND GEORGIA TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF FAY.  STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4
FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA
ALONG THE FLORIDA GULF COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS.

FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.
ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA IN OUTER RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH
FAY.  ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER COASTAL SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA.  ISOLATED STORM TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 20 TO 30 INCHES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITH FAY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY IN PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN FLORIDA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...29.7 N...84.2 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 8 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB



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