[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT41 KNHC 212032
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
500 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2008

NWS DOPPLER RADAR...AIRCRAFT DATA...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF FAY'S LARGE CIRCULATION
HAS BEEN SLOWLY CROSSING THE FLORIDA EAST COAST WITH THE MINIMUM
PRESSURE NEAR FLAGLER BEACH.  THE CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES
REMARKABLY WELL-DEFINED WITH NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE BANDS AND
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. DOPPLER WINDS AND
RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF
50 KNOTS. SOME HIGHER WINDS COULD HAVE OCCURRED OVER WATER IN THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT A FEW HOURS AGO BEFORE THE CENTER CROSSED THE
COAST. NOW THAT THE CIRCULATION IS MOVING INLAND...A GRADUAL
WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN.

FAY IS ALREADY SOUTH OF A RIDGE AND IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 4 KNOTS.
THIS HIGH SHOULD PROVIDE A SLOW WEST-TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK DURING
THE NEXT 4 DAYS. THEREAFTER...STEERING CURRENTS SHOULD COLLAPSE
AGAIN AND WHATEVER IS LEFT OF FAY SHOULD MOVE VERY LITTLE.

SINCE FAY IS FORECAST TO BE VERY CLOSE TO THE FLORIDA GULF
COAST...ANY DEVIATION TO THE SOUTH COULD BRING THE CENTER BACK OVER
THE WATER AND FAY COULD PERHAPS RETAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.
THIS UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS HAS PROMPTED
THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE FLORIDA
GULF COAST.

REGARDLESS OF ITS EXACT TRACK...FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLOOD HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      21/2100Z 29.4N  81.4W    50 KT
 12HR VT     22/0600Z 29.5N  82.2W    40 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     22/1800Z 29.7N  83.3W    30 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     23/0600Z 29.9N  84.8W    30 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     23/1800Z 30.4N  86.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     24/1800Z 31.0N  88.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     25/1800Z 31.5N  90.0W    25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     26/1800Z 32.0N  90.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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