[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KMLB 211532
HLSMLB

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SUBTROPICAL STORM FAY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1132 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2008

...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY IS DRIFTING NORTH JUST OFFSHORE THE
VOLUSIA COUNTY COAST...

...AREAS AFFECTED...THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN
BY PERSONS WITHIN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
BREVARD COUNTY UNTIL NOON.

A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA UNTIL
LATE FRIDAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL INLAND
COUNTIES WITHIN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA EXCEPT OKEECHOBEE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR VOLUSIA...BREVARD...
INDIAN RIVER AND SAINT LUCIE COUNTIES AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC
WATERS.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 1100 AM EDT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 29.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.8 WEST OR ABOUT 15 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA.

FAY HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT HAS RECENTLY
SHOWN A SLOW DRIFT TO THE NORTH. A MOTION TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON
THIS TRACK...FAY IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY...AND BE VERY NEAR THE GULF COAST OF THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY EARLY SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY...BUT
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER FAY MOVES BACK OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA.

THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH FAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING A RESULT OF RAIN BANDS REPEATEDLY MOVING
ACROSS THE SAME AREAS.

FLZ041-044>046-053-144-221545-
/O.EXT.KMLB.TI.W.0001.000000T0000Z-080823T0000Z/
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-OSCEOLA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-
1132 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT
FRIDAY...

...NEW INFORMATION...

RAINBANDS FROM FAY WITH INTENSE TORRENTIAL RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS
SEMINOLE...ORANGE...NORTHERN LAKE AND INTERIOR VOLUSIA COUNTIES. AS
FAY TRACKS SLOWLY NORTH AND THEN INLAND TODAY...THE THREAT FOR
ADDITIONAL FLOODING WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL FLORIDA
AS ADDITIONAL RAINBANDS DEVELOP NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE STORM CENTER
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH WILL BE COMMON
TODAY...MAINLY IN SQUALLS.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING INLAND COUNTIES...LAKE...ORANGE...SEMINOLE...OSCEOLA...AND
INTERIOR VOLUSIA.

...WINDS...

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...MAINLY IN GUSTS...WILL CONTINUE
TODAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER OF
FAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHERN BREVARD AND VOLUSIA
COUNTIES. HOWEVER...EVEN ACROSS THE INTERIOR INCLUDING METRO ORLANDO
WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH WILL BE COMMON...ESPECIALLY IN
SQUALLS.

...INLAND FLOODING...

HEAVY TROPICAL RAINBANDS WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE CENTER
OF TROPICAL STORM FAY...IMPACTING MOST OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE
HEAVIEST RAIN RATES THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOULD REMAIN AROUND ONE
INCH PER HOUR...BUT TORRENTIAL RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR WILL
BE POSSIBLE. IF TORRENTIAL CELLS PERSIST...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY.

AN ADDITIONAL 4 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL FLORIDA BY LATE FRIDAY. EVEN FAR FROM THE CENTER AND
AFTER PASSAGE OF THE TROPICAL STORM...A VERY MOIST TROPICAL AIRMASS
WILL MAKE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO
DEVELOP WITH TORRENTIAL TROPICAL RAIN RATES. RESIDENTS THROUGHOUT
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD NOT LET THEIR GUARD DOWN CONCERNING THE
FLOOD THREAT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MELBOURNE AROUND 3 PM...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...SEE
THE MELBOURNE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV
AND THEN CLICK ON EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

$$

FLZ047-054-059-141-147-221545-
/O.CON.KMLB.TR.W.1006.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
SOUTHERN BREVARD-INDIAN RIVER-ST. LUCIE-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
NORTHERN BREVARD-
1132 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

RAIN BANDS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER OF FAY WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
TORRENTIAL RAIN AND HIGH FLOODING CONCERNS ACROSS MAINLY VOLUSIA AND
BREVARD COUNTY. RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE 1 TO 2 INCHES HAD FALLEN
FROM EASTERN ORANGE COUNTY TO CAPE CANAVERAL THIS MORNING. OUTER
RAIN BANDS FURTHER SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT SOUTHERN BREVARD
THROUGH SAINT LUCIE COUNTIES IN AREAS THAT IN SOME CASES HAVE
ALREADY EXPERIENCED EXTENSIVE FLOODING. LITTLE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
IN THESE AREAS WILL BRING WATER LEVELS UP AGAIN.

WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH WILL BE COMMON TODAY...MAINLY IN SQUALLS. PEAK
GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH WILL OCCUR...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST OF VOLUSIA
AND NORTH BREVARD COUNTIES. RECENT GUST OBSERVATIONS INCLUDE 42 MPH
IN ORMOND BEACH...44 MPH IN TITUSVILLE AND 40 MPH IN SANFORD.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COASTAL COUNTIES...SAINT LUCIE...INDIAN RIVER...
BREVARD...AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

HIGH SURF WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL.
STORM TIDE WATERS MAY RUN 2 TO 3 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL NEAR THE TIME
OF HIGH TIDE BETWEEN 11 AM AND NOON. STORM SURGE CONCERNS WILL BE
HIGHEST ALONG THE NORTHERN VOLUSIA COAST...WHERE CONTINUED
ONSHORE WINDS ARE CREATING LONG DURATION POUNDING SURF.
SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION REMAINS A CONCERN.

THE EFFECTS OF STORM TIDE WATERS WILL BE MINIMAL SOUTH OF CAPE
CANAVERAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENT ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL
STORM FAY.

...WINDS...

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...MAINLY IN GUSTS...WILL CONTINUE
TODAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR NEAR THE CIRCULATION
CENTER OF FAY...ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHERN BREVARD AND VOLUSIA
COUNTIES. WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH WILL BE COMMON...
ESPECIALLY FROM ORANGE AND BREVARD COUNTIES NORTHWARD. A FEW WIND
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 65 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WITHIN SQUALLS ALONG THE VOLUSIA AND
NORTH BREVARD BEACHES. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH ACROSS INDIAN RIVER AND
SAINT LUCIE COUNTIES...WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LOWER BUT STILL WITH
GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH OF 40 MPH IN SQUALLS. WINDS SHOULD
BEGIN TO LESSEN BY LATE TODAY AS FAY BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY AND WEAKENS
AS IT MOVES BACK ON LAND.

...INLAND FLOODING...

HEAVY TROPICAL RAINBANDS WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE CENTER
OF TROPICAL STORM FAY...IMPACTING MOST OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE
HEAVIEST RAIN RATES THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOULD REMAIN AROUND ONE
INCH PER HOUR...BUT TORRENTIAL RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR WILL
BE POSSIBLE. IF TORRENTIAL CELLS PERSIST...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY. RAINFALL SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER SOUTHERN
BREVARD THROUGH SAINT LUCIE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON.

AN ADDITIONAL 4 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL FLORIDA BY LATE FRIDAY. EVEN FAR FROM THE CENTER
AND AFTER PASSAGE OF THE TROPICAL STORM...A VERY MOIST TROPICAL
AIRMASS WILL MAKE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
TO DEVELOP WITH TORRENTIAL TROPICAL RAIN RATES. RESIDENTS THROUGHOUT
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD NOT LET THEIR GUARD DOWN CONCERNING THE
FLOOD THREAT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

...TORNADOES...

THERE WILL BE A VERY LOW THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO ACROSS
VOLUSIA AND LAKE COUNTIES TODAY. IF A TORNADO DOES DEVELOP...IT
SHOULD BE BRIEF AND SHORT LIVED.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MELBOURNE AROUND 3 PM...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...SEE
THE MELBOURNE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV
AND THEN CLICK ON EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

$$

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-221545-
/O.CON.KMLB.TR.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
1132 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

FAY HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT HAS RECENTLY
SHOWN A SLOW DRIFT TO THE NORTH. THIS MOTION TO THE NORTH IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A TURN TO WEST-NORTHWEST FORECAST TO
BEGIN LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS
TRACK...FAY IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA TODAY...AND BE VERY NEAR THE GULF COAST OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE BY EARLY SATURDAY.

...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS...
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS PERSIST IN THE OPEN ATLANTIC AS FAY
REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE. BUOY 41009 HAS BEEN REPORTING GUSTS AROUND 40
KNOTS THIS MORNING. SEAS ARE OVER 10 FEET EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST FROM CAPE
CANAVERAL SOUTHWARD WHERE HEIGHTS WERE 4 TO 6 FEET. NUMEROUS SQUALLS
PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS ARE ALSO OCCURRING ACROSS MOST OF THE
COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL WIND AND
SEAS SUBSIDE.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MELBOURNE AROUND NOON...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

$$






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