[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT41 KNHC 202032
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
500 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2008

FAY HAS MAINTAINED A WELL-DEFINED STRUCTURE ON SATELLITE AND RADAR
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS RAINBANDS
SPIRALING AROUND THE CENTER BUT THE CYCLONE LACKS AN INNER CORE.
SURFACE AND RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS AT 45 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE VERY FAVORABLE
FOR STRENGTHENING...THE INTERACTION WITH LAND SHOULD ONLY ALLOW SOME
SLIGHT STRENGTHENING...IF AT ALL.

FAY HAS BEEN MEANDERING FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS BUT IT BEGAN TO
DRIFT NORTHWARD IN THE PAST HOUR OR SO. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
DEVELOPING NORTH OF FAY IS ALREADY BLOCKING ITS NORTHWARD
PROGRESSION AND FAY SHOULD SOON BEGIN TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST AND THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT ISSUE
REGARDING THE SLOW MOTION IS THAT FAY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DUMP
TORRENTIAL RAINS ALONG ITS PATH...AND WILL PROBABLY BE REMEMBERED
AS A VERY WET STORM.  THE TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST
KEEPING FAY OVER LAND IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
AND TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACK GUIDANCE. ONLY THE ECMWF MODEL BRINGS
FAY OVER THE WATERS OF THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      20/2100Z 28.8N  80.5W    45 KT
 12HR VT     21/0600Z 29.2N  80.9W    50 KT
 24HR VT     21/1800Z 29.5N  81.8W    45 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     22/0600Z 29.8N  83.0W    30 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     22/1800Z 30.2N  84.0W    25 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     23/1800Z 31.3N  86.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     24/1800Z 32.5N  88.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     25/1800Z 33.5N  89.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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