[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

Wed Aug 20 14:24:18 CDT 2008

WTUS82 KMLB 201922 PAA
HLSMLB

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM FAY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
322 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2008

...SQUALLS CONTAINING FLOODING RAIN OVER BREVARD COUNTY AND NORTH
INDIAN RIVER COUNTY CONTINUE...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS WITHIN
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR BREVARD COUNTY !!!

TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL INLAND
COUNTIES WITHIN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA EXCEPT OKEECHOBEE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR VOLUSIA...BREVARD...
INDIAN RIVER AND SAINT LUCIE COUNTIES AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC
WATERS.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 2 PM...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
28.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.6 WEST ABOUT 15 MILES...20 KM...NORTH OF
CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA.

FAY HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY...BUT IS EXPECTED TO RESUME A SLOW
NORTHWARD MOTION TODAY...WITH A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST ON
THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
THESE WINDS ARE OCCURRING MOSTLY OVER WATER WELL TO THE EAST OF
THE CENTER. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FLZ047-054-059-141-147-211930-
/O.CON.KMLB.TR.W.1006.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
SOUTHERN BREVARD-INDIAN RIVER-ST. LUCIE-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
NORTHERN BREVARD-
322 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...EXTREME FLOODING EXPECTED FOR BREVARD COUNTY...

...NEW INFORMATION...
THE FLOOD THREAT FOR BREVARD COUNTY REMAINS EXTREME! HEAVY RAIN
MOVING INTO NORTH INDIAN RIVER COUNTY!

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COASTAL COUNTIES...SAINT LUCIE...INDIAN RIVER...
BREVARD...AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES.

...INLAND FLOODING...
THIS IS A HISTORIC AND HAZARDOUS RAINFALL EVENT ACROSS THE AREA!
LIFE AND PROPERTY ARE IN JEOPARDY!

THERE IS AN EXTREME THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY FOR THE LOCAL
AREA FROM HEAVY RAIN...WITH THE LIKELIHOOD FOR LOCALLY HIGHER
RAINFALL TOTALS TO WELL EXCEED FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE. THIS IS
ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR BREVARD AND EAST OSCEOLA COUNTIES.

AT 200 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS SHOWING
NO SIGNS THAT THE STRONG SQUALL OVER SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY AND
NORTH INDIAN RIVER COUNTY IS WEAKENING...ALTHOUGH THE HEAVY RAIN
CORES ARE SHIFTING ABIT AS FAY WOBBLES AND CREEPS FORWARD. THIS
SQUALL...SOUTH OF THE CENTER...WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST AND
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND MAJOR FLOODING IN PARTS
OF MELBOURNE AND PALM BAY AND NEARBY TOWNS AND NEIGHBORHOODS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY REACH AS MUCH AS 30 INCHES FOR EVENT
TOTALS...WITH ANOTHER 5 TO 10 INCHES EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON!

AT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE...RAIN TOTALS HAVE REACHED
16.46 INCHES SO FAR...AND IT CONTINUES TO RAIN. IN PARTS OF NORTH
MELBOURNE...NEARLY 25 INCHES HAVE BEEN REPORTED.

ACTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN...NOW...FOR AN EXTREME IMPACT FROM INLAND
FLOODING! SCATTERED LOCATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE MAJOR FLOODING...AMONG
MANY LOCATIONS OF MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING IN BREVARD AND EAST
OSCEOLA COUNTIES! FLOODING WILL BE FURTHER ACCENTUATED IN LOW
LYING SPOTS AND NEAR PONDS AND LAKES!

TAKE ACTION NOW TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY! DO NOT GO OUT ONTO
THE ROADWAYS...AS DRAINAGE DITCHES AND RETENTION PONDS ARE
OVERFLOWING IN BREVARD COUNTY! THE ROADS ARE DIFFICULT TO SEE AND
IT IS VERY DANGEROUS TO DRIVE! DO NOT DRIVE ACROSS PLACES WHERE
WATER OF UNKNOWN DEPTH COVERS THE ROAD AS THEY MAY BE WASHED OUT!

IF YOU HAVE A LIFE THREATENING EMERGENCY...CALL 9 1 1.

IF YOU NEED GUIDANCE ON WHAT TO DO IF WATER THREATENS YOUR
HOME...CONTACT CITY OR COUNTY OFFICIALS WITH EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

HEED THE WORD OF LOCAL AUTHORITIES IF YOU ARE TOLD TO EVACUATE.

FAY CONTINUES TO BE A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING THREAT FOR ESPECIALLY
BREVARD COUNTY UNTIL FAY RESUMES APPRECIABLE FORWARD MOTION.
HEAVY RAIN BANDS CONTINUE TO PIVOT AROUND THE CENTER OF FAY. THE
HEAVIEST RAIN BANDS CONTINUE ACROSS BREVARD COUNTY IN THE SAME
AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS OF RAIN OVER
THE LAST 24 HOURS.

DURING MAJOR INLAND FLOODING...AREA RIVERS AND TRIBUTARIES CAN
OVERFLOW THEIR BANKS IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS. SMALL STREAMS...
CREEKS...CANALS...AND DRAINAGE DITCHES CAN BECOME DANGEROUS RIVERS.
IN FLATTER TERRAIN...EXTENSIVE INUNDATION OFTEN OCCURS COVERING
BOTH PRIMARY AND SECONDARY ROADS. IN URBAN PLACES...WIDESPREAD
INUNDATION IS POSSIBLE WITH STREETS AND PARKING LOTS BECOMING
RIVERS OF MOVING WATER. OVERALL...MAJOR DAMAGE RESULTS FROM FLASH
FLOODING AND RAPID INUNDATION...WHICH CAN GREATLY IMPACT MANY
BUILDINGS AND ROADS...AND PROMPT EVACUATIONS.

RADAR ESTIMATES AND RAIN GAGE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT 10 TO 14
INCHES HAS FALLEN OVER A LARGE AREA...WITH ISOLATED SPOTS OF 20 TO
24 INCHES DURING THE PAST 48 HOURS ALONG THE COAST FROM CENTRAL
BREVARD COUNTY SOUTH...AND INLAND TO OSCEOLA COUNTY. MINOR TO
MODERATE FLOODING HAS ALREADY OCCURRED ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION.
IMPORTANTLY...MODERATE TO EXTREME FLOODING HAS ALREADY OCCURRED IN
POCKETS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY....ESPECIALLY IN
THE MELBOURNE AND PALM BAY AREAS...AND VICINITY. HEAVY RAIN
CONTINUES TO FALL! ANOTHER 5 TO 10 INCHES IS POSSIBLE!

THE SLOW MOTION OF FAY WILL CAUSE VERY HEAVY RAIN TO CONTINUE TO
FALL ACROSS BREVARD COUNTY THROUGH AT LEAST THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN AFFECT THROUGH 430 PM
FOR BREVARD COUNTY. THIS WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED. NUMEROUS
ROADWAYS HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH STANDING WATER WHICH ARE
IMPASSABLE IN SPOTS.

ROAD CLOSURES ARE VERY LIKELY! PROBLEMS WITH SEWER BACKUPS MAY
OCCUR...CONTAMINATING STANDING WATER. ALSO...CHECK WITH LOCAL
OFFICIALS FOR POSSIBLE WATER BOIL ALERTS IN YOUR AREA.

ON THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER BETWEEN LAKE HARNEY AND ASTOR...THERE IS
CURRENTLY NO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING. THE LATEST STAGE HEIGHTS AT LAKE
HARNEY...SANFORD...DELAND...AND ASTOR ARE ALL BELOW RIVER FLOOD
STAGE. RAIN TOTALS ALONG THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER WILL INCREASE NORTH
OF LAKE HARNEY TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS OF THIS MORNING...THE STAGE AT
ASTOR IS EXPECTED TO REACH 2.5 FEET BY LATE FRIDAY ABOVE THE ACTION
STAGE OF 2.3 FEET...BUT BELOW FLOOD STAGE OF 2.8 FEET.

...WINDS...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAINLY IN GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR NEAR THE CENTER OF FAY ALONG
THE COAST OF NORTHERN BREVARD AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 45 AND 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH ACROSS INDIAN RIVER AND SAINT
LUCIE COUNTIES WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LOWER BUT STILL GUSTING TO
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH OF 40 MPH THROUGH THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE SOUTH OF BREVARD COUNTY TONIGHT BUT NOT UNTIL
FRIDAY FROM BREVARD AND NORTH.

THERE IS STILL A DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT TRACK OF FAY.
HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION OF FAY APPEARS MUCH
LESS LIKELY AS IT TRACKS VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST. RESIDENTS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FAY CLOSELY.

...TORNADOES...
AS THE CENTER OF FAY MOVES NORTH NEAR THE COAST...THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR TORNADOES WILL ALSO MOVE SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE
CENTRAL PENINSULA. A LOW THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL
LINGER TODAY AND TONIGHT...PRIMARILY ACROSS VOLUSIA AND NORTHERN
LAKE COUNTIES COUNTY IN ASSOCIATION WITH FAY.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
AS WINDS CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFFSHORE SOUTH OF THE CAPE...STORM SURGE
CONCERNS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL. HIGH SURF AND A HIGH THREAT FOR RIP
CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. TO THE NORTH OF THE CAPE...TIDES MAY
RUN 2 TO 3 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL MID DAY TODAY AND AGAIN NEAR MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. STORM SURGE CONCERNS WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG THE NORTHERN
VOLUSIA COAST TONIGHT.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MELBOURNE AROUND 6 PM EDT...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...SEE
THE MELBOURNE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV
AND THEN CLICK ON EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

$$

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-211930-
/O.CON.KMLB.TR.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
322 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
FAY CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS.

...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS...
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXIST IN THE OPEN ATLANTIC AS FAY
MEANDERED NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WERE BEING REPORTED AT BUOY 41009 WITH GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS.  SEAS ARE
OVER 10 FEET EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST FROM CAPE CANAVERAL SOUTHWARD
WHERE HEIGHTS WERE 4 TO 6 FEET.  NUMEROUS SQUALLS PRODUCING
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS ARE ALSO OCCURRING ACROSS MOST OF THE COASTAL
WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT AS CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH TONIGHT.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MELBOURNE AROUND 6 PM EDT...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...SEE
THE MELBOURNE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV
AND THEN CLICK ON EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

$$

FLZ041-044>046-144-211930-
/O.CON.KMLB.TI.W.0001.000000T0000Z-080821T2200Z/
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN LAKE-
322 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
TROPICAL STORM FAY REMAINS IN VICINITY OF THE NORTH BREVARD COUNTY
COAST...WITH A CREEPING MOTION TO THE NORTH ALONG THE COASTLINE.
FAY IS FORECAST TO TRACK ALONG THE BREVARD AND VOLUSIA COUNTY
COAST THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE HEADING BACK WEST NEAR DAYTONA
BEACH THURSDAY MORNING. SINCE FAY WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO LAND IT NO
LONGER IS EXPECTED TO REINTENSIFY AND SHOULD STAY AT TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH. FAY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST ACROSS NORTHERN
SECTION OF FLORIDA THROUGH FRIDAY.

...WINDS...
AS FAY MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD NEAR THE EAST COAST...WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE INTERIOR INCLUDING AROUND METRO
ORLANDO. WINDS WILL STILL FREQUENTLY REACH 25 MPH...AND UP TO 40
MPH IN SHOWERS.

THE THREAT FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS GUSTS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY ACROSS NORTHERN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA INCLUDING INLAND VOLUSIA AND NORTHERN LAKE
COUNTIES. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL MOVE
WEST NORTHWEST JUST NORTH OF VOLUSIA COUNTY ON THURSDAY. SOUTH OF
THE CIRCULATION CENTER...GUSTY WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE CAN
BE EXPECTED...WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY ACROSS INLAND VOLUSIA
AND NORTHERN LAKE COUNTIES.

...INLAND FLOODING...
FAY CONTINUES TO BE A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING THREAT FOR ESPECIALLY
BREVARD COUNTY AND EXTENDING INTO PORTIONS OF OSCEOLA
COUNTY....AND NORTH INDIAN RIVER COUNTY. HEAVY RAIN BANDS CONTINUE
TO PIVOT AROUND THE CENTER OF FAY. THE HEAVIEST RAIN BANDS ARE NOW
ACROSS BREVARD COUNTY AND NORTH INDIAN RIVER COUNTY...IN THE SAME
AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS OF RAIN OVER
THE LAST 24 HOURS.

ON THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER BETWEEN LAKE HARNEY AND ASTOR...THERE IS
CURRENTLY NO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING. THE LATEST STAGE HEIGHTS AT
LAKE HARNEY...SANFORD...DELAND...AND ASTOR ARE ALL BELOW RIVER
FLOOD STAGE. RAIN TOTALS ALONG THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER WILL INCREASE
NORTH OF LAKE HARNEY TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS OF THIS MORNING...THE
STAGE AT ASTOR IS EXPECTED TO REACH 2.5 FEET BY LATE FRIDAY ABOVE
ACTION STAGE OF 2.3 FEET...BUT BELOW FLOOD STAGE OF 2.8 FEET.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MELBOURNE AROUND 6 PM EDT...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...SEE
THE MELBOURNE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV
AND THEN CLICK ON EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

$$

FLZ053-202200-
/O.CON.KMLB.TI.W.0001.000000T0000Z-080820T2200Z/
OSCEOLA-
322 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...EXTREME FLOODING FOR EAST OSCEOLA COUNTY EXPECTED...

...NEW INFORMATION...
THE FLOOD THREAT FOR EAST OSCEOLA COUNTY CONTINUES TO BE EXTREME!

...INLAND FLOODING...
THIS IS A HISTORIC AND HAZARDOUS RAINFALL EVENT ACROSS THE AREA!
LIFE AND PROPERTY ARE IN JEOPARDY!

THERE IS AN EXTREME THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY FOR THE LOCAL
AREA FROM HEAVY RAIN...WITH THE LIKELIHOOD FOR LOCALLY HIGHER
RAINFALL TOTALS TO WELL EXCEED FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE. THIS IS
ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR BREVARD AND EAST OSCEOLA COUNTIES.

AT 200 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS SHOWING
NO SIGNS THAT THE STRONG SQUALLS OVER EAST OSCEOLA COUNTY IS
WEAKENING...ALTHOUGH THE HEAVY RAIN CORES ARE SHIFTING ABIT AS FAY
WOBBLES AND CREEPS FORWARD. THIS SQUALL...SOUTH OF THE
CENTER...WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST AND PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND MAJOR FLOODING IN PARTS OF MELBOURNE AND
PALM BAY AND NEARBY TOWNS AND NEIGHBORHOODS.