[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT41 KNHC 201444
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
1100 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2008

FAY HAS BEEN OVER LAND LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED AND IT HAS CONTINUED
TO WEAKEN. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS DETERIORATED SIGNIFICANTLY
SINCE YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...THERE ARE NUMEROUS RAINBANDS PRIMARILY
OVER WATER AND THE OUTFLOW IS WELL DEFINED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
HAS BEEN SET TO 45 KNOTS BASED ON RECONNAISSANCE DATA AND THE SFMR.
SOME HIGHER WIND GUSTS ARE PROBABLY OCCURRING OVER WATER ASSOCIATED
WITH SOME RAINBANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
SOME STRENGTHENING IF THE CENTER MOVES OVER WATER AS EXPECTED. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST NO LONGER FORECASTS FAY TO BECOME A HURRICANE DUE
TO THE CYCLONE'S INTERACTION WITH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BUT ALLOWS
SOME STRENGTHENING. ONLY THE HWRF INSISTS ON INTENSIFICATION BEFORE
LANDFALL. A LITTLE DEVIATION OF THE TRACK TO THE LEFT WOULD KEEP
THE CENTER OVER LAND AND INTENSIFICATION WILL NOT OCCUR.

FAY HAS BEEN MOVING VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH...ABOUT 3 KNOTS...
WHILE EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS.  A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NORTH OF FAY AND THIS PATTERN SHOULD
STEER THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST. THIS OFFICIAL
FORECAST KEEPS THE CENTER VERY NEAR THE EAST COAST OF NORTH FLORIDA
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN MOVES THE CYCLONE INLAND UNTIL IT
BECOMES A REMNANT LOW. IN THE LONG RANGE...SOME GLOBAL MODELS TURN
FAY WESTWARD ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS SCENARIO IS NOT LIKELY TO OCCUR BUT I WOULD NOT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY YET GIVEN THE GOOD PERFORMANCE OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      20/1500Z 28.6N  80.6W    45 KT
 12HR VT     21/0000Z 29.0N  80.6W    45 KT
 24HR VT     21/1200Z 29.4N  81.2W    50 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     22/0000Z 29.8N  82.2W    35 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     22/1200Z 30.0N  83.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     23/1200Z 30.5N  84.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     24/1200Z 31.0N  86.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     25/1200Z 32.0N  88.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



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