[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KMLB 201249
HLSMLB

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM FAY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
849 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2008

...TROPICAL STORM FAY EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST
TODAY...

...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE
TAKEN BY PERSONS WITHIN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL INLAND COUNTIES WITHIN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA EXCEPT
OKEECHOBEE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL COUNTIES
AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM
FLAGLER BEACH TO SEBASTIAN INLET...FROM 20 TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES
OFFSHORE.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 800 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 28.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.6 WEST OR VERY NEAR CAPE
CANAVERAL FLORIDA.

AMZ570-572-211300-
/O.CON.KMLB.TR.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KMLB.HU.A.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
849 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH ALONG
THE BREVARD AND VOLUSIA COUNTY COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. SUSTAINED
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FROM 30 TO 40 KNOTS AND SEAS OVER THE
15 FEET WILL MAKE BOATING EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD STAY IN PORT.


$$

FLZ047-054-059-064-141-147-211300-
/O.CON.KMLB.TR.W.1006.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
SOUTHERN BREVARD-INDIAN RIVER-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
NORTHERN BREVARD-
849 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
TROPICAL STORM FAY CONTINUES TO SLOW IT FORWARD PROGRESS MOVING
NORTH AT 5 MPH. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WILL MOVE ALONG THE
BREVARD AND VOLUSIA COUNTY COAST TODAY AND THIS EVENING AND THEN
IS FORECAST TO MAKE ANOTHER LANDFALL AS IT TURNS BACK WESTWARD
TOWARD THE COAST BETWEEN DAYTONA BEACH AND SAINT AUGUSTINE LATE
TONIGHT OR THURSDAY BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST. AT THIS
TIME...THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR THIS SYSTEM TO STAY AT
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IF IT STAYS CLOSE TO THE EAST COAST AND IS
NOT FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE WARMER GULF STREAM WATERS.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COASTAL COUNTIES...MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE...INDIAN
RIVER...BREVARD...AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES.

...WINDS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT AS WINDS GUSTS TO 45
TO 50 MPH ARE STILL EXPECTED WITH RAIN BANDS AROUND THE CENTER
TODAY AS FAY MOVES SLOWLY NORTH TOWARD NORTHERN BREVARD AND THE
VOLUSIA COUNTY COAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS MUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK FORECAST BEYOND TONIGHT BUT BY
THURSDAY MORNING FAY SHOULD TURN TO THE NORTHWEST OR WEST AND
POSSIBLE MAKE ANOTHER LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST BETWEEN DAYTONA
BEACH AND SAINT AUGUSTINE. ON THIS TRACK...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
BY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA WITH THE THREAT FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS CONTINUING
ALONG THE VOLUSIA COUNTY COAST INTO THURSDAY.

...INLAND FLOODING...
RADAR ESTIMATES AND RAIN GAGE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A LARGE
AREA OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED SPOTS TO NEAR 14 INCHES FELL
DURING THE PAST 48 HOURS ALONG THE COAST FROM CENTRAL BREVARD
COUNTY SOUTH...AND INLAND TO OSCEOLA AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES.
MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING OCCURRED ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS ALL OF EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA...WITH ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. THE
FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT.

THE SLOW MOTION OF FAY WILL CAUSE VERY HEAVY RAIN TO CONTINUE TO
FALL ACROSS CENTRAL BREVARD COUNTY THROUGH MID MORNING. A FLASH
FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT. NUMEROUS ROADWAYS HAVE BEEN REPORTED
WITH STANDING WATER WHICH ARE IMPASSABLE IN SPOTS.

THE COOPERATIVE OBSERVER IN STUART HAS REPORTED A TWO DAY RAINFALL
TOTAL OF 13.83 INCHES. THE TWO DAY RAINFALL TOTAL AT THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN MELBOURNE IS 12.21 INCHES. THESE VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE LED TO FLOODING OF ROADWAYS AND SOME
HOMES FROM MELBOURNE TO PORT SAINT LUCIE TO STUART.

ON THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER BETWEEN LAKE HARNEY AND ASTOR...THERE IS
CURRENTLY NO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING. THE LATEST STAGE HEIGHTS AT
LAKE HARNEY...SANFORD...DELAND...AND ASTOR ARE ALL BELOW RIVER
FLOOD STAGE. RAIN TOTALS ALONG THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER WILL
INCREASE NORTH OF LAKE HARNEY TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS OF THIS
MORNING...THE STAGE AT ASTOR IS THE CLOSEST TO FLOOD HEIGHTS...BUT
IT HAS NOT REACHED ACTION LEVEL.

...TORNADOES...
AS THE CENTER OF FAY MOVES NORTH NEAR THE COAST...THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR TORNADOES WILL ALSO MOVE SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE
CENTRAL PENINSULA. A LOW THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL
LINGER TODAY AND TONIGHT...PRIMARILY ACROSS VOLUSIA AND NORTHERN
LAKE COUNTIES COUNTY IN ASSOCIATION WITH FAY.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
AS WINDS SHIFT TO OFFSHORE SOUTH OF THE CAPE...STORM SURGE
CONCERNS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL. HIGH SURF AND A HIGH THREAT FOR RIP
CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. IF FAY RESTRENGTHENS AND REMAINS
NEAR THE COAST...A 2 TO 3 FOOT STORM SURGE MAY OCCUR...MAINLY
ALONG THE NORTHERN VOLUSIA COAST.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MELBOURNE AROUND NOON EDT...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...SEE
THE MELBOURNE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV
AND THEN CLICK ON EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

$$

AMZ550-552-555-575-211300-
/O.CON.KMLB.TR.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
849 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH ALONG
THE BREVARD AND VOLUSIA COUNTY COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. SUSTAINED
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FROM 30 TO 40 KNOTS AND SEAS OVER THE
15 FEET WILL MAKE BOATING EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD STAY IN PORT.


$$

FLZ041-044>046-144-211300-
/O.CON.KMLB.TI.W.0001.000000T0000Z-080821T2200Z/
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN LAKE-
849 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT
THURSDAY...

...NEW INFORMATION...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WILL MOVE NORTH NEAR THE BREVARD
AND VOLUSIA COUNTY COAST TODAY AND THIS EVENING AND THEN IS
FORECAST TO MAKE ANOTHER LANDFALL AS IT TURNS BACK WESTWARD TOWARD
THE COAST BETWEEN DAYTONA BEACH AND SAINT AUGUSTINE LATE TONIGHT
OR THURSDAY BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST. AT THIS
TIME...THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR THIS SYSTEM TO STAY AT
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IF IT STAYS CLOSE TO THE EAST COAST AND IS
NOT FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE WARMER GULF STREAM WATERS. ON THE
CURRENT TRACK THE MAIN EFFECTS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FELT
ACROSS VOLUSIA AND NORTHERN LAKE COUNTIES.

TROPICAL STORM WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE...WITH THE
STRONGEST GUSTS MOST LIKELY NEAR THE COAST AND DURING SHOWERS.

...WINDS...
AS FAY MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD NEAR THE EAST COAST...WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE INTERIOR INCLUDING AROUND METRO
ORLANDO. WINDS WILL STILL FREQUENTLY REACH 25 MPH...AND UP TO 40
MPH IN SHOWERS. ALONG THE COAST...FREQUENT GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH
WILL CONTINUE WITH A FEW SQUALLS TO AROUND 50 MPH.

THE THREAT FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS GUSTS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY ACROSS NORTHERN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA INCLUDING INLAND VOLUSIA AND NORTHERN LAKE
COUNTIES. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL MOVE
WEST NORTHWEST JUST NORTH OF VOLUSIA COUNTY ON THURSDAY. SOUTH OF
THE CIRCULATION CENTER...GUSTY WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE CAN
BE EXPECTED...WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY ACROSS INLAND VOLUSIA
AND NORTHERN LAKE COUNTIES.

...INLAND FLOODING...
RADAR ESTIMATES AND RAIN GAGE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A LARGE
AREA OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED SPOTS TO NEAR 6 INCHES FELL
DURING THE PAST 48 HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA. FURTHER SOUTH FROM SOUTHERN BREVARD TO LAKE
OKEECHOBEE...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 7 TO 10 INCHES HAVE
FALLEN WITH A FEW AREAS SEEING STORM TOTALS NEAR 14 INCHES. A
FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

ON THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER BETWEEN LAKE HARNEY AND ASTOR...THERE IS
CURRENTLY NO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING. THE LATEST STAGE HEIGHTS AT
LAKE HARNEY...SANFORD...DELAND...AND ASTOR ARE ALL BELOW RIVER
FLOOD STAGE. RAIN TOTALS ALONG THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER WILL
INCREASE NORTH OF LAKE HARNEY TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS OF THIS
MORNING...THE STAGE AT ASTOR IS THE CLOSEST TO FLOOD HEIGHTS...BUT
IT HAS NOT REACHED ACTION LEVEL.

...TORNADOES...

AS THE CENTER OF FAY MOVES NORTH NEAR THE COAST...THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR TORNADOES WILL ALSO MOVE SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE
CENTRAL PENINSULA. A LOW THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL
LINGER TODAY AND TONIGHT...PRIMARILY ACROSS VOLUSIA AND NORTHERN
LAKE COUNTIES COUNTY IN ASSOCIATION WITH FAY.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MELBOURNE AROUND NOON EDT...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...SEE
THE MELBOURNE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV
AND THEN CLICK ON EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

$$

FLZ053-202200-
/O.CON.KMLB.TI.W.0001.000000T0000Z-080820T2200Z/
OSCEOLA-
849 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT
THIS AFTERNOON...

...NEW INFORMATION...
TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR MELBOURNE EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE BREVARD AND
VOLUSIA COUNTY COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE PROXIMITY OF FAY AND
SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL RAIN BANDS TO
DEVELOP TODAY ACROSS OSCEOLA COUNTY WITH WIND GUSTS TO 40 TO 45
MPH. POSSIBLE THE THREAT FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE LATER TONIGHT AS THE CENTER MOVES FURTHER
NORTH.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...OSCEOLA.

...WINDS...
AS FAY MOVES SLOWLY AWAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A NORTHWEST THEN
WEST COMPONENT. TEMPORARILY...WINDS WILL BECOME LESS GUSTY
INLAND...ALTHOUGH STILL FREQUENTLY REACHING 25 MPH...AND UP TO 40
TO 45 MPH IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. THE FUTURE TRACK OF FAY SHOULD
DECREASE THE THREAT OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS BY LATE TONIGHT.


...INLAND FLOODING...
RADAR ESTIMATES AND RAIN GAGE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A LARGE
AREA OF 7 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED SPOTS TO NEAR 14 INCHES FELL
DURING THE PAST 48 HOURS ALONG THE COAST FROM CENTRAL BREVARD
COUNTY SOUTH...AND INLAND TO OSCEOLA AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES.
MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING OCCURRED ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS ALL OF EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA...WITH ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. A
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

...TORNADOES...
THE RISK FOR TORNADOES HAS SHIFTED NORTH OF OSCEOLA COUNTY TODAY.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MELBOURNE AROUND NOON EDT...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...SEE
THE MELBOURNE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV
AND THEN CLICK ON EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

$$

MRV





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