[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT41 KNHC 200855
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
500 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2008

TROPICAL STORM FAY HAS TURNED SLOWLY NORTHWARD AFTER FINALLY
REACHING THE EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...THE CENTER REMAINS JUST INLAND ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF
MELBOURNE FLORIDA AND MAY NOT EMERGE OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN UNTIL
THIS AFTERNOON WHEN FAY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH OF THE CAPE
CANAVERAL AREA. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING A
TIGHTER TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN A SHARPER WESTWARD JOG
ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AFTER 36 HOURS AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO BY 72 HOURS. THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS ARE EXCEPTIONS TO
THIS SCENARIO AND KEEP FAY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS GEORGIA AND
ALABAMA...BUT EVEN THOSE MODELS ARE NO LONGER TAKING FAY EAST OF
80W LONGITUDE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE
SOUTH...OR LEFT...OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND IS SIMILAR TO
BUT SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE POSSIBILITY OF FAY REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH IS BECOMING
SMALLER NOW THAT FAY IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST AND IS NOT
EXPECTED TO MOVE MORE THAN 30 NM OFFSHORE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS. EVEN IF FAY DOES MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST TRACK...NOAA BUOY DATA INDICATES THAT SEA-SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HAVE DECREASED BY AS MUCH AS 3 CELSIUS...WHICH IS
CONSIDERABLY COOLER THAN WHAT THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS
INCORPORATING. THE GFDL AND HWRF ARE ALSO NO LONGER FORECASTING FAY
TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH. FAY HAS MAINTAINED GOOD CONVECTIVE
BANDING FEATURES AND IS LOCATED IN A REGION OF GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW...SO SOME MODEST INTENSIFICATION IS STILL POSSIBLE. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
THE SHIPS MODEL. HOWEVER...IF FAY REMAINS FARTHER WEST AND CLOSER
TO LAND...THEN THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST WILL LIKELY BE TOO
HIGH THROUGH 36 HOURS. IF FAY MOVES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK AND
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO... THEN INTENSITY FORECAST WILL BE TOO LOW
AFTER 72 HOURS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      20/0900Z 28.2N  80.6W    45 KT...JUST INLAND
 12HR VT     20/1800Z 28.8N  80.6W    50 KT
 24HR VT     21/0600Z 29.3N  80.9W    60 KT
 36HR VT     21/1800Z 29.6N  81.5W    50 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     22/0600Z 30.0N  82.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     23/0600Z 30.4N  84.1W    30 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     24/0600Z 30.7N  86.0W    25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     25/0600Z 31.0N  88.0W    25 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



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