[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT41 KNHC 200242
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

AFTER FAY'S UNEXPECTED STRENGTHENING EPISODE OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA EARLIER TODAY...THE STORM IS NOW BEHAVING IN A MORE
NORMAL FASHION.  THE SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENTATION HAS
DEGRADED...WITH THE EYE NO LONGER EVIDENT...AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO
AROUND 45 KT.  FAY WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN A LITTLE MORE WHILE ITS
CENTER IS OVER LAND.  THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN AS DEPICTED
BY ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE.  THEREFORE FAY
IS LIKELY TO COMMENCE RESTRENGTHENING WHEN IT MOVES BACK OVER WATER
ON WEDNESDAY.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY PREDICTION IS SIMILAR TO THE
LATEST SHIPS FORECAST.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT BOTH THE GFDL AND
HWRF MODELS SHOW MORE STRENGTHENING THAN INDICATED BY THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST.  OF COURSE...THE FUTURE INTENSITY OF FAY IS ALSO STRONGLY
DEPENDENT ON HOW LONG THE CENTER STAYS OVER WATER.

RADAR FIXES SHOWED THAT FAY NEARLY STALLED A FEW HOURS AGO...AND
THEN WOBBLED A LITTLE TO THE EAST.  CURRENTLY IT APPEARS THAT THE
CENTER IS BACK ON A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK...OR 030/4.  GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A BUILDING 500 MB RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
FAY OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 DAYS.  THIS EVOLUTION OF THE STEERING
PATTERN WOULD BEGIN TO BLOCK THE NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN ABOUT 48 HOURS.  TRACK MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT FAY WILL TURN BACK TOWARD THE COAST AFTER MOVING
JUST OFFSHORE.  THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE TO THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST ON THIS PACKAGE.  THIS IS CLOSE TO OR A LITTLE SOUTH OF
THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      20/0300Z 27.7N  80.7W    45 KT
 12HR VT     20/1200Z 28.4N  80.3W    50 KT
 24HR VT     21/0000Z 29.0N  80.2W    60 KT
 36HR VT     21/1200Z 29.5N  80.8W    65 KT
 48HR VT     22/0000Z 29.9N  81.7W    65 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     23/0000Z 30.5N  83.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     24/0000Z 31.0N  85.5W    25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     25/0000Z 32.0N  87.5W    20 KT...INLAND...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



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