[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT41 KNHC 192043
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
500 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

FAY DID NOT WEAKEN OVER LAND AS ANTICIPATED AND IN FACT...IT IS
STRONGER THAN IT HAS EVER BEEN SO FAR. INITIAL INTENSITY IS
CONSERVATIVELY SET AT 55 KNOTS. THIS IS BASED ON SATELLITE...RADAR
AND CONFIRMED BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. THIS HAS PROMPTED A
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. GIVEN THAT FAY HAS
KEPT SUCH A WELL-DEFINED SIGNATURE ON RADAR AND ON SATELLITE...THE
CHANCES THAT THE CYCLONE BECOMES A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES OVER
THE GULF STREAM EAST OF FLORIDA HAVE INCREASED. THE INTENSIFICATION
IS SUPPORTED BY SHIPS...THE GFDL AND THE HWRF MODELS...AND IS
REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

THE EYE FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH FAY HAS BEEN TRACKED BY SATELLITE
AND NWS DOPPLER RADAR AND THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION
IS NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 020 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS. CURRENTLY FAY IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. HOWEVER...THIS STEERING PATTERN IS
FORECAST TO CHANGE SOON AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO DEVELOP
NORTH OF FAY. THIS NEW STEERING PATTERN WILL FORCE FAY TO MOVE
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARD THE COAST OF NORTH FLORIDA AND
GEORGIA. FOLLOWING CONTINUITY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A
GRADUAL WEST-NORTHWEST TURN BUT GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A SHARPER
WESTWARD TURN. IF SO...SOME SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST COULD BE REQUIRED LATER ON.

THIS NEW DEVELOPMENT HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE WATCH
FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTH FLORIDA AND GEORGIA COAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      19/2100Z 27.3N  81.0W    55 KT...INLAND
 12HR VT     20/0600Z 28.2N  80.5W    55 KT...OVER WATER
 24HR VT     20/1800Z 29.0N  80.2W    65 KT
 36HR VT     21/0600Z 29.5N  80.5W    65 KT
 48HR VT     21/1800Z 30.0N  81.4W    65 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     22/1800Z 30.5N  83.0W    30 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     23/1800Z 31.4N  85.5W    25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     24/1800Z 32.0N  87.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



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