[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT31 KNHC 191900
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  16B
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
300 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

...FAY CONTINUES TO BATTER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF OCEAN REEF TO FLAGLER BEACH...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 300 PM EDT...1900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.1 WEST OR ABOUT 15
MILES...30 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF OKEECHOBEE FLORIDA.

FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH AND A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IN EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK...FAY SHOULD MOVE OVER WATER NEAR THE EAST COAST OF NORTH
FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 MPH...105 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS FAY MOVES INLAND OVER FLORIDA.  SOME
RESTRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED WHEN FAY MOVES OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
ON WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER. AN UNOFFICIAL REPORT OF A WIND GUST OF 78 MPH...125
KM/HR...WAS MEASURED OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE
DURING THE PAST HOUR.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB...29.12 INCHES.

FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA..WITH
MAXIMUM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

STORM TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AS FAY APPROACHES.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA.

REPEATING THE 300 PM EDT POSITION...27.1 N...81.1 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/AVILA

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