[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 191759
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM FAY IS CENTERED NEAR 27.0N 81.1W WHICH IS INLAND
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA NEAR LAKEPORT FLORIDA AND ALSO ABOUT 22 NM
SOUTHWEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE AT 19/1800 UTC MOVING
NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
986 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65
KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC THE FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/ WTNT21 KNHC AND PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
DOPPLER RADAR AND SATELLITE PRESENTATIONS REMAIN IMPRESSIVE OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON WITH FAY REMAINING EMBEDDED IN A
VERY WEAK AND NARROW UPPER TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE ERN
U.S. SEABOARD THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.
THIS UPPER TROUGH IS STEERING THE STORM N-NE WITH FLUCTUATIONS
IN INTENSITY EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS FAY TRAVELS
ACROSS THE PENINSULA. SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS THEN FORECAST ONCE
FAY MOVES BACK OVER THE W ATLC WATERS BY WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN
CORE OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-30N
BETWEEN 79W-83W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS LOCATED OVER THE W ATLC
WATERS FROM 24N-31N BETWEEN 75W-79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM
21N-32N BETWEEN 74W-84W. FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA...WITH MAXIMUM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF
15 INCHES. ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TODAY
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC IS ALONG 37W S OF 17N WITH
A 1009 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 13N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. BROAD
AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE IS INDICATED BY MIMIC-TPW
ANIMATION WITH A WELL DEFINED MID-LEVEL LOW OBSERVED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 36W-39W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN/W TROPICAL ATLC REMAINS TILTED
FROM 20N63W ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA
NEAR 11N68W MOVING W 10-15 KT. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 13N16W 11N25W 12N35W 12N40W 10N50W
7N60W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
ARE FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 15W-28W...FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 27W-32W...
AND FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 33W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE ERN GULF IS T.S. FAY AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON...SEE SPECIAL
FEATURES ABOVE. NARROW UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR ERN U.S. TO
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AN UPPER LOW IS MOVING SE OVER N
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF NEAR 26N91W EXTENDING WEAK RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS INLAND ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM MOBILE ALABAMA TO
AUSTIN TEXAS. THIS SCENARIO IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NW GULF W OF A LINE FROM NEW
ORLEANS LOUISIANA TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. THE CENTRAL AND S GULF
REMAIN RATHER CLEAR WITH A NARROW CORRIDOR OF HIGHER PRESSURE
AND LIGHTER WIND VALUES ALONG 90W. THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE
FAR E GULF WILL CONTINUE TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF T.S. FAY AS IT
MOVES IN A NORTHERLY DIRECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ACROSS CUBA
TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS GIVING MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN EASTERLY
UPPER FLOW WITH STRONGER NE UPPER FLOW BETWEEN 70W-80W. THIS IS
PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 78W-83W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM
COLOMBIA INTO THE E PACIFIC JUST N OF PANAMA GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR SW
CARIBBEAN S OF 11N BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND COSTA RICA. AN AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ACROSS THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS SOUTH OF DOMINICA IN THE SE CARIBBEAN FROM 8N-15N
BETWEEN 59W-63W DUE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM A CENTRAL
ATLC RIDGE AXIS ALONG 55W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS
DOMINATED BY MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR...
THUS CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SW ATLC WATERS IS T.S. FAY...SEE
SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS W OF 74W AND N OF 24N. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC
NEAR 25N63W EXTENDING A NARROW UPPER TROUGH TO N OF THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF THE UPPER
LOW EXTENDING FROM 32N60W TO 26N66W. AN AREA OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS IS SE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN
59W-62W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS TO THE E EXTENDING FROM 15N55W TO
BEYOND 32N55W. A LARGE UPPER LOW COVERS MOST OF THE E/CENTRAL
ATLC NEAR 22N43W WITH A WEAKER UPPER LOW NW OF THE CANARY
ISLANDS NEAR 31N21W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND SOMEWHAT DRY STABLE
AIR COVERS THE ATLC E OF 55W GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE
MOST OF THE ATLC N OF 20N E OF 55W WITH A WEAKNESS NEAR THE
SURFACE TROUGH ANCHORED BY A SERIES OF HIGHS N OF THE REGION.

$$
HUFFMAN



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