[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement
EMWIN Server
emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Tue Aug 19 10:32:58 CDT 2008
WTUS82 KJAX 191532
HLSJAX
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM FAY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1132 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST...
...TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE INLAND COUNTIES OF
NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
...FAY MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...
...STORM INFORMATION...AT 1100 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL
STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.3
WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES EAST OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA AND 20 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF MOORE HAVEN ON THE WEST SIDE OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH AND A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IN EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK...FAY SHOULD MOVE OVER WATER NEAR THE EAST COAST OF NORTH
FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. FAY SHOULD WEAKEN TODAY AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND. SOME
RESTRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED ONCE FAY MOVES BACK OVER WATER.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB...29.12 INCHES.
FLZ024-025-033-038-192230-
/O.CON.KJAX.TI.A.0001.000000T0000Z-080821T2100Z/
/O.CON.KJAX.TR.A.1006.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
NASSAU-DUVAL-ST JOHNS-FLAGLER-
1132 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008
...TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...NEW INFORMATION...
THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK HAS FAY MOVING VERY SLOWLY ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THEN OFFSHORE THE ATLANTIC COAST. AS
THE STORM SLOWS AND POTENTIALLY APPROACHES THE COAST AGAIN LATE
THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...A PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTH FLORIDA IS POSSIBLE.
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN
NASSAU...DUVAL...ST JOHNS AND FLAGLER COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST
FLORIDA.
...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE COAST OF NORTHEAST
FLORIDA FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO FLAGLER BEACH.
A TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH CONTINUES FOR INLAND COUNTIES OF
NORTHEAST FLORIDA.
A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
RESIDENTS AND VISITORS IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD PREPARE FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL
WHICH MAY CAUSE FLOODING.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
ONSHORE WINDS COULD RESULT IN TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY IF THE STORM TRACK SHIFTS FURTHER TO
THE EAST.
...WINDS...
AS FAY APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH...WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT MAINLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS OF ST JOHNS AND FLAGLER
COUNTIES. WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH MAINLY GUSTS TO TROPICAL
STORM FORCE ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...OVER THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY AND ON PORTIONS
OF THE ST JOHNS RIVER. SHOULD THE STORM EMERGE OVER THE ATLANTIC
ON WEDNESDAY AND APPROACH THE COAST ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS THE
CURRENT TRACK SUGGESTS...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE.
...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
FOR THE CITY OF JACKSONVILLE...THERE IS A 31 PERCENT CHANCE OF
WINDS EQUAL TO OR GREATER THAN 34 KNOTS OR 39 MPH. ALTHOUGH MAINLY
GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT...THE
GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE CONDITIONS
EXISTS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD THE STORM APPROACH THE COAST
FROM THE EAST. THERE IS A 2 PERCENT CHANCE OF WINDS EQUAL TO OR
GREATER THAN 64 KNOTS OR 74 MPH. THESE PROBABILITIES MAY CHANGE
DEPENDING UPON THE FUTURE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF FAY.
...INLAND FLOODING...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD POTENTIALLY REACH 4 TO 8 INCHES THROUGH
THURSDAY IF THE STORM SLOWS ITS FORWARD MOTION SUBSTANTIALLY. IF
THE STORM MOVES VERY SLOWLY...AS THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK
SUGGESTS...THESE AMOUNTS COULD BE SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER. THIS
AMOUNT OF RAIN CAN PRODUCE FLOODING OF ROADS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
WITH POOR DRAINAGE. KNOWN INTERSECTIONS WITH VERY POOR DRAINAGE
MAY HAVE WATER LEVELS UP TO 3 FEET. OTHER POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL
HAVE WATER RISES OF 1 FOOT. IF APPROACHING A FLOODED
ROADWAY...TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.
PERSONS IN NORMALLY FLOOD PRONE AREAS...SUCH AS MONCRIEF
CREEK...MCCOYS CREEK AND HOGANS CREEK...SHOULD BE PREPARED TO
TAKE IMMEDIATE PROTECTIVE ACTIONS SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE
ISSUED.
...TORNADOES...
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING
THIS AFTERNOON.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 530 PM EDT ON TUESDAY.
$$
AMZ452-454-472-474-192230-
/O.CON.KJAX.TR.A.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
1132 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...NEW INFORMATION...
THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK HAS FAY MOVING VERY SLOWLY ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THEN OFFSHORE THE ATLANTIC COAST. AS
THE STORM SLOWS AND POTENTIALLY APPROACHES THE COAST AGAIN LATE
THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...A PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS IS POSSIBLE.
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN
COASTAL NORTHEAST FLORIDA.
...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
MARINERS SHOULD COMPLETE PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS TODAY AND OTHERWISE
NOT VENTURE FAR FROM PORT.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
ONSHORE WINDS COULD RESULT IN TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY IF THE STORM TRACK SHIFTS FURTHER TO
THE EAST.
...WINDS...
AS THE CIRCULATION OF FAY APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH...WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLY REACHING
TROPICAL STORM FORCE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AS FAY MOVES
WESTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST.
...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
THERE IS A 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH A 5 TO 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF STRONG
TROPICAL STORM FORCE OR 50 KNOTS OR GREATER WINDS. THESE
PROBABILITIES MAY CHANGE DEPENDING UPON THE FUTURE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF FAY.
...TORNADOES...
THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE LOCATED IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF
FAY. HISTORICALLY...THIS QUADRANT IS THE FAVORED AREA FOR
TORNADOES AND TORNADIC WATERSPOUTS...ESPECIALLY WITHIN OUTER RAIN
BANDS. THE THREAT FOR WATERSPOUTS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 530 PM EDT.
$$
FLZ020>023-030>032-035>037-040-192230-
/O.CON.KJAX.TI.A.0001.000000T0000Z-080821T2100Z/
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-GILCHRIST-
ALACHUA-PUTNAM-MARION-
1132 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008
...TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...
...NEW INFORMATION...
THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK HAS FAY MOVING VERY SLOWLY NORTH-
NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND OFF THE COAST OF NORTHEAST
FLORIDA...THEN RETURN WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA OR GEORGIA.
THE PRIMARY THREAT APPEARS TO BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAIN...MAINLY WHEN THE SYSTEM RETURNS WESTWARD TOWARD NORTH
FLORIDA ON THURSDAY.
THIS MAY CAUSE PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH
FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN
HAMILTON...SUWANNEE...COLUMBIA...BAKER...UNION...BRADFORD...
CLAY...GILCHRIST...ALACHUA...PUTNAM AND MARION COUNTIES IN
NORTHEAST FLORIDA.
...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. A FLOOD WATCH IS
ALSO IN EFFECT.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
RESIDENTS AND VISITORS IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD PREPARE FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL
WHICH MAY CAUSE FLOODING.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.
...WINDS...
AS FAY APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH...WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT WITH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH MAINLY GUSTS TO TROPICAL
STORM FORCE POSSIBLE. SHOULD THE STORM EMERGE OVER THE ATLANTIC
ON WEDNESDAY AND APPROACH THE COAST ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS THE
CURRENT TRACK SUGGESTS...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAY
BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE SUWANNEE VALLEY.
...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM WINDS OR 39
MPH OR GREATER OVER INTERIOR NORTH FLORIDA. THESE PROBABILITIES
MAY CHANGE DEPENDING UPON THE FUTURE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF FAY.
...INLAND FLOODING...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AREA THROUGH THURSDAY AND
UP TO 3 TO 6 INCHES FARTHER EAST. IF THE STORM MOVES VERY SLOWLY
LONG THE FLORIDA AND GEORGIA STATE LINE...AS THE CURRENT FORECAST
SUGGESTS...THESE AMOUNTS COULD BE SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER. THIS
AMOUNT OF RAIN CAN PRODUCE FLOODING AND WASHOUTS OF
ROADS...ESPECIALLY THOSE WITH POOR DRAINAGE. KNOWN INTERSECTIONS
WITH VERY POOR DRAINAGE MAY HAVE WATER LEVELS UP TO 3 FEET. OTHER
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL HAVE WATER RISES OF 1 FOOT. THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL INCREASE IF FAY MOVES MORE
SLOWLY THEN CURRENTLY FORECAST. IF APPROACHING A FLOODED
ROADWAY...TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.
...TORNADOES...
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY...THOUGH THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST
EAST OF HIGHWAY 301 IN THE MORE FAVORABLE FRONT QUADRANT OF THE
SYSTEM.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 530 PM EDT ON TUESDAY.
$$
AMZ450-470-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-192230-
/O.CON.KJAX.HU.S.1006.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-
BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-
INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
1132 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008
...NEW INFORMATION...
THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK HAS FAY MOVING VERY SLOWLY NORTH-
NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND OFF THE COAST OF NORTHEAST
FLORIDA...THEN RETURN WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA OR GEORGIA.
THE PRIMARY THREAT APPEARS TO BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAIN...MAINLY WHEN THE SYSTEM RETURNS WESTWARD TOWARD NORTH
FLORIDA ON THURSDAY.
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT IS FOR INTERESTS IN COFFEE...JEFF DAVIS...BACON...
APPLING...WAYNE...ATKINSON...WARE...PIERCE...BRANTLEY...GLYNN...
ECHOLS...CLINCH...CHARLTON AND CAMDEN COUNTIES.
...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
NONE AT THIS TIME.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FAY. STAY
TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION
STATIONS FOR ANY UPDATES OR WARNINGS. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE
WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
ONSHORE WINDS COULD RESULT IN TIDES OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY IF THE STORM TRACK SHIFTS FURTHER TO
THE EAST.
...WINDS...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAY BE EXPERIENCED...ESPECIALLY IN THE
FORM OF GUSTS ALONG THE COAST...THE BAYS AND SOUNDS AS FAY APPROACHES
THE AREA AND MOVES ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL PRIMARILY BE DURING
THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIME FRAME AS THE STORM MOVES OVER THE
OPEN ATLANTIC AND POTENTIALLY APPROACHES THE COAST ONCE AGAIN.
...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
THERE IS A 10 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
EXPERIENCING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND A 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF COASTAL GEORGIA EXPERIENCING TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS. THESE PROBABILITIES MAY CHANGE DEPENDING UPON THE FUTURE
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF FAY.
...INLAND FLOODING...
ALTHOUGH THE MAIN RAINFALL IMPACTS WILL HAVE A DELAYED ONSET
COMPARED TO PORTIONS OF FLORIDA...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A
SIGNIFICANT PROLONGED RAINFALL EVENT OVER MOST OF SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM FAY WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA LAT TONIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
STORM...CONCERN OVER THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE ONCE FAY
EMERGES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND ONCE AGAIN
BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS COULD SET THE STAGE FOR A LONG DURATION
HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD POTENTIALLY REACH 4 TO 8 INCHES AS HEAVY
RAINBANDS SET UP OVER THE AREA. SHOULD THE STORM MOVE VERY
SLOWLY...AS THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK SUGGESTS...THESE AMOUNTS
COULD BE SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN CAN PRODUCE
FLOODING OF ROADS...ESPECIALLY THOSE WITH POOR DRAINAGE. KNOWN
INTERSECTIONS WITH VERY POOR DRAINAGE MAY HAVE WATER LEVELS UP TO 3
FEET. OTHER POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL HAVE WATER RISES OF 1 FOOT. IF
APPROACHING A FLOODED ROADWAY...TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.
...TORNADOES...
ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 1100 AM EDT ON TUESDAY.
$$
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