[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT31 KNHC 191444
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

...FAY IS NOT IN A HURRY TO CROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE WEST
COAST OF FLORIDA...FLORIDA KEYS SOUTHWEST OF OCEAN REEF...AND
FLORIDA BAY HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF OCEAN REEF TO FLAGLER BEACH...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.3 WEST OR ABOUT 30
MILES... 50 KM...EAST OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA AND...20 MILES...30 KM
SOUTHWEST OF MOORE HAVEN ON THE WEST SIDE OF LAKE OKECHOBBE.

FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH AND A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IN EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK...FAY SHOULD MOVE OVER WATER NEAR THE EAST COAST OF NORTH
FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  FAY SHOULD WEAKEN TODAY AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND. SOME
RESTRENGHTENING IS EXPECTED ONCE FAY MOVES BACK OVER WATER.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB...29.12 INCHES.

FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA..WITH
MAXIMUM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO
5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

STORM TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AS FAY APPROACHES.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...26.7 N...81.3 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB.

INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 PM EDT AND 300 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



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