[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KMFL 190506 PAA
HLSMFL

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM FAY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
106 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

...HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST AND TROPICAL
STORM WARNING ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA CONTINUE IN EFFECT...

.AT 1100 PM EDT, THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH LONGITUDE 81.9 WEST OR ABOUT 60 MILES SOUTH OF
NAPLES FLORIDA.

FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH AND A SLIGHTLY EAST OF
NORTH MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THIS TRACK
THE CENTER WILL CROSS THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TUESDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUE INLAND OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA LATER ON TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FAY
COULD STILL APPROACH HURRICANE STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
WEAKENING IS LIKELY WHILE FAY MOVES OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

FLZ069-075-191200-
/O.CON.KMFL.HU.W.1006.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL COLLIER-MAINLAND MONROE-
106 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

WINDS SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED.
WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
INLAND FLOOD SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED.
STORM TIDE SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS: COASTAL COLLIER, MAINLAND
MONROE.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:

	FLOOD WATCH.
	TORNADO WATCH.
	HURRICANE WARNING.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ALL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM THE EFFECTS OF
A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE SHOULD BE COMPLETED. UNDER THE CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK, TROPICAL STORM FAY WOULD MAKE LAND FALL JUST NORTH
OF NAPLES AROUND 4 AM AS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS NOW SPREADING NORTH UP THE FLORIDA SOUTHWEST COAST TOWARD
METRO COLLIER COUNTY AND EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK. DESPITE THE
FACT FAY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A STRONG TROPICAL STORM, THERE IS
STILL A CHANCE THAT IT BECOMES A HURRICANE BEFORE LAND FALL. IF
THIS POSSIBILITY MATERIALIZES, IT COULD HAPPEN ANYTIME DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. THEREFORE A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT.

THERE IS STILL A LITTLE TIME FOR VOLUNTARY EVACUATION FOR COASTAL
RESIDENTS OF CHOKOLOSKEE, HENDERSON CREEK, EVERGLADES CITY,
GOODLAND, MARCO ISLAND, GORDON RIVER, AND ANY OTHER EXPOSED LOW
LYING COASTAL AREAS. THIS ALSO APPLIES TO RESIDENTS OF MANUFACTURED
HOMES.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF FAY IS FORECAST TO
MAKE LANDFALL DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AROUND OR NORTH OF
NAPLES AS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM. GIVEN THE FORECAST WIND
CONDITIONS AS THE STORM PASSES, STORM TIDES OF 3 TO 5 FEET WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE CAPE SABLE AND FLAMINGO AREAS OF EVERGLADES
NATIONAL PARK PARTICULARLY AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE AROUND 4
AM. A STORM TIDE OF UP TO 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL IS
ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE MAINLAND MONROE AND COLLIER COUNTY
COASTLINE FROM CHOKOLOSKEE AND EVERGLADES CITY WEST TO COLLIER
SEMINOLE STATE PARK, GOODLAND AND MARCO ISLAND ESPECIALLY AROUND
THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE IN THE 3 AM TO 5 AM TIME PERIOD ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER, THIS THREAT WILL STILL BE PRESENT ALTHOUGH TO A LESSER
DEGREE ACROSS THESE AREA LATER DURING THE MORNING HOURS WHILE THE
ONSHORE FLOW REMAINS STRONG AND BEFORE THE WIND BEGINS TO SUBSIDE BY
LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH THESE CONDITIONS MINOR
FLOODING OF COASTAL ROADS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IS LIKELY
PARTICULARLY AT THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE AND WHEN THE ONSHORE FLOW
IS STRONGEST.

HOWEVER, SHOULD THE STORM BE STRONGER AND ITS TRACK CHANGE, A
STORM TIDE OF 7 TO 10 FEET AT ANY GIVEN COASTAL LOCATION IS
STILL POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE THE STORM MAKES
LANDFALL. A STORM TIDE OF 10 FEET WOULD MEAN THAT MANY ROADWAYS
COULD GO UNDERWATER INCLUDING PARTS OF THE TAMIAMI TRAIL, STATE
ROADS 951 AND 92 WHICH LINK MARCO ISLAND TO THE MAINLAND AND STATE
ROAD 29 WHICH LINKS CHOKOLOSKEE AND EVERGLADES CITY TO THE TAMIAMI
TRAIL. COLLIER SEMINOLE STATE PARK WOULD ALSO HAVE SIGNIFICANT
STORM SURGE FLOODING.

A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION HAS BEEN URGED BY COLLIER COUNTY EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT FOR MANY RESIDENTS OF LOW LYING COMMUNITIES IN COLLIER
COUNTY.

...WINDS...

TROPICAL STORM FAY IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL JUST NORTH OF
NAPLES AROUND 4 AM TUESDAY. WIND SPEEDS ACROSS METRO COLLIER
COUNTY AT 11 PM RANGED FROM 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 40
MPH IN SOME PLACES, STILL BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE. HOWEVER,
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH, AT FLAMINGO STATION, SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
AROUND 40 TO 45 MPH GUSTING 55 MPH. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, WITH
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 50 TO 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR
HURRICANE FORCE IN SQUALLS POSSIBLY REACHING THE METRO COLLIER
COASTLINE INCLUDING NAPLES AND MARCO ISLAND, DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO IMPROVE LATE
TUESDAY MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING
RATHER WINDY STILL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHOULD FAY END UP
BEING STRONGER, CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 74 MPH ARE STILL POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING THE MORNING
HOURS ON TUESDAY MORNING AND MAINLY ACROSS COASTAL COLLIER COUNTY.
THE EXACT LOCATIONS THAT WOULD END UP EXPERIENCING THE HIGHEST
WINDS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND OF WHERE FAY ENDS UP LAND FALLING
WITH WORST CONDITIONS ALONG AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE ULTIMATE LAND
FALL POINT.

WINDS IN THIS SPEED RANGE ARE CAPABLE OF CAUSING DAMAGE TO
UNANCHORED MOBILE HOMES AND TRAILERS, PORCHES, CARPORTS, AWNINGS,
POOL ENCLOSURES AND WITH SOME SHINGLES BLOWN FROM ROOFS. LARGE
BRANCHES BREAK OFF TREES, BUT SHALLOW ROOTED OR DISEASED TREES
COULD BE BLOWN DOWN. LOOSE OBJECTS ARE EASILY BLOWN ABOUT AND
BECOME DANGEROUS PROJECTILES. THESE WINDS AREA ALSO DANGEROUS ON
BRIDGES AND CAUSEWAYS, ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES LIKE
TRUCKS AND BUSES. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE ALSO LIKELY,
ESPECIALLY WHERE POWER LINES ARE EXPOSED ABOVE GROUND.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

THERE IS A BETTER THAN 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
GULF COAST EXPERIENCING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS, WINDS OF 39 TO
73 MPH, WITH FAY. THERE IS A LESS THAN 5 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST EXPERIENCING HURRICANE CONDITIONS, OR
WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER.

...INLAND FLOODING...

RAINFALL TOTALS SO FAR SINCE MONDAY ACROSS COASTAL COLLIER ARE IN
THE 1 TO 3 INCHES RANGE AND HIGHER ACROSS MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY. TOTAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE STILL POSSIBLE BEFORE
THE EVENT IS OVER WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 12 INCHES POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY WHERE TRAINING OF SPIRAL BANDS OCCURS. THIS RAINFALL
CAN EASILY CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING POORLY DRAINED UNDERPASSES
AND DRAINAGE DITCHES, AS WELL AS PONDING OF RAINFALL RUNOFF IN
PARKING LOTS. BE SURE THAT DEBRIS DOES NOT CLOG DRAINAGE ROUTES IN
ORDER TO EASE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINS. FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR IN
AREAS WHERE TRAINING OF SQUALLS SETS UP ACROSS THE SAME AREA FOR
SEVERAL HOURS. MOTORISTS SHOULD NEVER DRIVE ACROSS WATER OF AN
UNKNOWN DEPTH, TURN AROUND DONT DROWN. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT.

...TORNADOES...

WITH TROPICAL STORM FAY ABOUT GETTING CLOSE TO LAND FALL, THE RISK
OF TORNADOES ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. HOWEVER,
THERE IS STILL A REMOTE POSSIBILITY THAN AN ISOLATED TORNADO
OCCURS. THEREFORE, A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 3 AM TUESDAY.

$$

GMZ656-657-676-191200-
/O.CON.KMFL.HU.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20 NM-
GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
106 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
MARINE IMPACTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
TORNADO WATCH NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS: COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE
TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 60 NM, COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE
TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20 NM.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA: HURRICANE WARNING.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WITH A HURRICANE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT, MARINERS SHOULD HAVE ALREADY
COMPLETED THEIR PREPARATIONS AS THE SPIRAL BANDS FROM FAY ARE
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. ALL MARINE CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN SAFE PORT
THROUGH TUESDAY.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

THERE IS BETTER THAN AN 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
GULF COASTAL WATERS EXPERIENCING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS, WINDS
OF 34 TO 64 KNOTS, WITH FAY. THERE IS A LESS THAN 5 PERCENT CHANCE
OF THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COASTAL WATERS EXPERIENCING
HURRICANE CONDITIONS, OR WINDS OF 64 KNOTS OR GREATER.

...TORNADOES...

WITH TROPICAL STORM FAY ABOUT GETTING CLOSE TO LAND FALL, THE RISK
OF TORNADOES ACROSS THE AREA HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED. THEREFORE,
TORNADO WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA

...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS...

SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA AS TROPICAL STORM FAY MOVES ACROSS THE COLLIER COUNTY COASTAL
WATERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS ABOVE 50 KNOTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT FLAMINGO STATION
ALONG THE MAINLAND MONROE SOUTHWEST COAST DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 45 TO 60 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO HURRICANE FORCE IN SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS ON TUESDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST, SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE BUT UNLIKELY MAINLY TUESDAY MORNING IF
THE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES. SEAS WILL BUILD IN EXCESS OF 10 FEET
OFFSHORE AND FROM 7 TO 10 FEET NEARSHORE, BECOMING EXTREMELY ROUGH
AND CONFUSED. SURF ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY ROUGH AND DANGEROUS THIS MORNING, AND ESPECIALLY ON
AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS WINDS REMAIN ONSHORE. MARINERS SHOULD
STAY IN SAFE PORT. BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY AS FAY PASSES BY THE
AREA AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 3 AM TUESDAY.

$$

FLZ168-172>174-191200-
/O.CON.KMFL.TR.W.1006.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
106 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

WINDS SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED.
WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
INLAND FLOODING HAS BEEN UPDATED.
TORNADO SECTION UPDATED.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS: COASTAL BROWARD, COASTAL MIAMI
DADE, COASTAL PALM BEACH.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:

	FLOOD WATCH.
	TORNADO WATCH.
	TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH
FLORIDA EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHWEST GULF COAST WHERE A HURRICANE
WARNING IS IN EFFECT. ALL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETE. THREE SHELTERS FOR PERSONS WISHING TO
EVACUATE FROM MOBILE HOMES OR HOMES IN LOW LYING AREAS ARE NOW
OPEN FOR MIAMI-DADE COUNTY RESIDENTS.

IN BROWARD COUNTY, A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION FOR RESIDENTS THAT LIVE
IN MOBILE HOME AND LOW LYING AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING IS IN PLACE.
ONE RED CROSS MASS CARE SHELTER IS OPEN AT ARTHUR ASHE MIDDLE
SCHOOL, 1701 NW. 23 AVENUE, FORT LAUDERDALE AND A PET FRIENDLY
SHELTER AT MILLENNIUM MIDDLE SCHOOL, 5803 NW 94 AVENUE, TAMARAC. IF
YOU PLAN TO GO TO THE PET FRIENDLY SHELTER YOU MUST BRING PROOF OF
PET VACCINATION, PET LICENSE AND ANY SPECIAL MEDICATIONS OR FOOD
REQUIRED. ONE SPECIAL MEDICAL NEEDS SHELTER IS OPENED FOR
RESIDENTS THAT HAVE A MEDICAL CONDITION THAT REQUIRES A GREATER
LEVEL OF CARE THAN THAT PROVIDED AT A RED CROSS MASS CARE SHELTER,
BUT DOES NOT REQUIRE HOSPITALIZATION. IF YOU HAVE NOT ALREADY
PREREGISTERED FOR THE SPECIAL MEDICAL NEEDS SHELTER YOU CAN CALL
3 1 1 FOR ASSISTANCE. THREE BRIDGES OPERATED BY THE BROWARD COUNTY
HIGHWAY AND BRIDGE MAINTENANCE DIVISION ARE CLOSED, LOCKED IN THE
DOWN POSITION. THEY ARE THE ANDREWS AVENUE BRIDGE, 3RD AVENUE
BRIDGE AND THE SW4/7 AVENUE BRIDGE IN DOWNTOWN FORT LAUDERDALE.
THE FLORIDA DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION HAS NOT ANNOUNCED CLOSURE
OF BRIDGES THAT THEY OPERATE IN BROWARD COUNTY.

PALM BEACH COUNTY HAS OPENED A SHELTER AT LAKES SHORE MIDDLE
SCHOOL IN THE BELLE GLADES AREA.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

LITTLE IMPACT FROM STORM TIDE IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
ATLANTIC COAST GIVEN THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY. WATER
LEVELS OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS MAY OCCUR ESPECIALLY AT
THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE DUE TO ONSHORE WIND FLOW TUESDAY MORNING.
SHOULD FAY BECOME A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE BEFORE LAND FALL, WATER
LEVELS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH
SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION ESPECIALLY AT THE
TIMES OF HIGH TIDE TUESDAY MORNING. THE NEXT HIGH TIDE FOR THE
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 11 AM
TUESDAY.

...WINDS...

ACROSS SOUTHEAST FLORIDA FROM PALM BEACH TO COASTAL MIAMI DADE ON
THE ATLANTIC SIDE, SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
35 TO 40 MPH HAVE BEEN REPORTED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS ALONG THE MIAMI DADE COAST. PEAK WIND GUSTS
ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE SAME TIME PERIOD HAVE BEEN RANGING IN
THE 55 TO 60 MPH RANGE MAINLY ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS IN MIAMI
DADE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 30
TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH ARE STILL POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
LATEST FORECAST TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, SHOULD FAY BE
STRONGER THAN FORECAST, STRONGER WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ANYTIME
DURING ITS PASSAGE. THEREFORE, THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES IN
EFFECT.

FOR FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE ADJACENT TO FLORIDA BAY, WINDS OF 35 TO
45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 55 MPH OR HIGHER WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE DURING THE DAYLIGHT MORNING
HOURS ON TUESDAY. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT IF THE STORM TRACKS
RIGHT OF TRACK AND INTENSIFIES FURTHER THAT WINDS COULD END UP
BEING STRONGER.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

THERE IS ABOUT A 60 TO 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS IN THE METRO MIAMI, FORT LAUDERDALE, AND WEST PALM
BEACH AREAS WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES IN THE MIAMI DADE AREA. THERE IS A
LESS THAN 3 PERCENT CHANCE OF HURRICANE CONDITIONS IN ALL THREE
LOCATIONS.

THERE IS A BETTER THAN 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE FAR SOUTH MIAMI-
DADE COAST EXPERIENCING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS, WINDS OF 39 TO
73 MPH, WITH FAY. THERE IS A LESS THAN 3 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE FAR
SOUTH MIAMI-DADE COAST EXPERIENCING HURRICANE CONDITIONS, OR WINDS
OF 74 MPH OR GREATER.

...INLAND FLOODING...

THROUGH THIS EVENING, RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY HAVE
BEEN IN THE 2 TO 4 INCHES RANGE WITH POCKETS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH
HIGHEST AMOUNTS OBSERVED AROUND SOUTHEAST PALM BEACH COUNTY,
SECTIONS OF NORTHEAST AND METRO BROWARD, AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF
MIAMI DADE COUNTY OVER THE EVERGLADES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS AS
HIGH AS 12 INCHES POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WHERE TRAINING OF SPIRAL
BANDS OCCURS. THIS RAINFALL CAN EASILY CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING
POORLY DRAINED UNDERPASSES AND DRAINAGE DITCHES, AS WELL AS
PONDING OF RAINFALL RUNOFF IN PARKING LOTS. BE SURE THAT DEBRIS
DOES NOT CLOG DRAINAGE ROUTES IN ORDER TO EASE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY
RAINS. FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR IN AREAS WHERE TRAINING OF SQUALLS
SETS UP ACROSS THE SAME AREA FOR SEVERAL HOURS. MOTORISTS SHOULD
NEVER DRIVE ACROSS WATER OF AN UNKNOWN DEPTH, TURN AROUND DONT
DROWN. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

...TORNADOES...

MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF FAY
FOR MOST OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. THIS QUADRANT IS A
FAVORED LOCATION FOR SMALL QUICK STRIKING TORNADOES, ESPECIALLY IN
THE SPIRAL BANDS OF SQUALLS. AS THE STORM MAKES LANDFALL AND
CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH, THE MAIN THREAT OF TORNADO PRODUCING RAIN
BANDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD DURING THE DAYLIGHT MORNING
HOURS ON TUESDAY. A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 3 AM TUESDAY.

$$

FLZ063-066>068-070>074-191200-
/O.CON.KMFL.TI.W.0001.000000T0000Z-080820T1200Z/
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND BROWARD-INLAND COLLIER-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO BROWARD-METRO MIAMI DADE-METRO PALM BEACH-
106 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

WINDS SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED.
WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
INLAND FLOODING HAS BEEN UPDATED.
TORNADO SECTION UPDATED.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS: GLADES, HENDRY, INLAND
BROWARD, INLAND COLLIER, INLAND MIAMI DADE, INLAND PALM
BEACH, METRO BROWARD, METRO MIAMI DADE, METRO PALM BEACH.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:

	FLOOD WATCH.
	TORNADO WATCH.
	TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MAINLAND
SOUTH FLORIDA EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST WHERE A
HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT. ALL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETE. SPIRAL BANDS FROM TROPICAL STORM FAY
ARE MOVING THROUGH MUCH OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA NOW PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS.

IN BROWARD COUNTY, A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION FOR RESIDENTS THAT LIVE
IN MOBILE HOME AND LOW LYING AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING IS IN PLACE.
ONE RED CROSS MASS CARE SHELTER IS OPEN AT ARTHUR ASHE MIDDLE
SCHOOL, 1701 NW. 23 AVENUE, FORT LAUDERDALE AND A PET FRIENDLY
SHELTER AT MILLENNIUM MIDDLE SCHOOL, 5803 NW 94 AVENUE, TAMARAC. IF
YOU PLAN TO GO TO THE PET FRIENDLY SHELTER YOU MUST BRING PROOF OF
PET VACCINATION, PET LICENSE AND ANY SPECIAL MEDICATIONS OR FOOD
REQUIRED. ONE SPECIAL MEDICAL NEEDS SHELTER IS OPENED FOR
RESIDENTS THAT HAVE A MEDICAL CONDITION THAT REQUIRES A GREATER
LEVEL OF CARE THAN THAT PROVIDED AT A RED CROSS MASS CARE SHELTER,
BUT DOES NOT REQUIRE HOSPITALIZATION. IF YOU HAVE NOT ALREADY
PREREGISTERED FOR THE SPECIAL MEDICAL NEEDS SHELTER YOU CAN CALL
3 1 1 FOR ASSISTANCE. THREE BRIDGES OPERATED BY THE BROWARD COUNTY
HIGHWAY AND BRIDGE MAINTENANCE DIVISION ARE CLOSED, LOCKED IN THE
DOWN POSITION. THEY ARE THE ANDREWS AVENUE BRIDGE, 3RD AVENUE
BRIDGE AND THE SW4/7 AVENUE BRIDGE IN DOWNTOWN FORT LAUDERDALE.
THE FLORIDA DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION HAS NOT ANNOUNCED CLOSURE
OF BRIDGES THAT THEY OPERATE IN BROWARD COUNTY.

PALM BEACH COUNTY HAS OPENED A SHELTER AT LAKES SHORE MIDDLE
SCHOOL IN THE BELLE GLADES AREA. HENDRY COUNTY HAS ALSO OPENED A
SHELTER IN LA BELLE. GLADES COUNTY HAS ALSO OPENED A SHELTER AT
WEST GLADES ELEMENTARY.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

LITTLE IMPACT FROM STORM TIDE IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
ATLANTIC COAST GIVEN THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY. WATER
LEVELS OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS MAY OCCUR ESPECIALLY AT
THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE DUE TO ONSHORE WIND FLOW TUESDAY MORNING.
SHOULD FAY BECOME A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE BEFORE LAND FALL, WATER
LEVELS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH
SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION ESPECIALLY AT THE
TIMES OF HIGH TIDE TUESDAY MORNING. THE NEXT HIGH TIDE FOR THE
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 11 AM
TUESDAY.

THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE LEVEL IS NEAR 11.3 FEET, WHICH IS BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SINCE FAY IS EXPECTED TO PASS WEST OF THE
LAKE DURING THE DAYLIGHT MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY, SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WINDS WILL BE BLOWING LAKE WATERS FROM THE SOUTH SHORE TOWARD THE
NORTH SHORE, RESULTING IN HIGHER THAN NORMAL LAKE LEVELS FROM
CANAL POINT NORTH TO THE TOWN OF OKEECHOBEE AND WEST TO LAKEPORT,
WHILE BELOW NORMAL LAKE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE BELLE GLADE,
SOUTH BAY, AND CLEWISTON AREAS. IF FAY PASSES DIRECTLY OVER OR
EAST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE, THE WATER LEVELS IN THE LAKE WILL
FLUCTUATE DRAMATICALLY DEPENDING ON THE DIRECTION AND SPEED OF THE
WIND.

...WINDS...

WIND GUSTS TO ABOUT 35 MPH ARE NOW MOVING NORTH THROUGH INLAND
MIAMI-DADE COUNTY AND WILL BE SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REMINDER OF THE AREA GRADUALLY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ACROSS
MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA AWAY FROM THE COASTS WIND SPEEDS ARE
GENERALLY 20 TO 30 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN SQUALLS.
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN
SQUALLS THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE DIMINISHING BEGINNING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK, IF FAY
IS STRONGER THAN FORECAST, WINDS WOULD BE HIGHER WITH GUSTS TO
STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE OR EVEN HURRICANE FORCE STILL POSSIBLE
ALTHOUGH NOT LIKELY.

UNDER THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK FOR INLAND COLLIER, GLADES AND
HENDRY COUNTIES, WINDS OF 45 TO 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR HURRICANE
FORCE IN SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY BEGINNING TO IMPROVE LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS INLAND AND METRO MIAMI DADE, INLAND AND METRO
BROWARD, AND INLAND AND METRO PALM BEACH COUNTIES, WINDS OF 40 TO
50 MPH WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH IN SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY BEGINNING TO
IMPROVE TUESDAY BY MID AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY
FARTHER INLAND AND CLOSER TO WHERE THE CENTER MOVES WEST OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS GUSTING TO HURRICANE FORCE WOULD BE
CAPABLE OF CAUSING DAMAGE TO CARPORTS, AWNINGS, AND POOL
ENCLOSURES AND SOME DAMAGE TO UNANCHORED MOBILE HOMES. SMALL
BRANCHES BREAK OFF TREES AND LOOSE OBJECTS ARE BLOWN ABOUT. WINDS
IN THIS RANGE BEGIN TO BECOME DANGEROUS ON BRIDGES AND CAUSEWAYS,
ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE
LIKELY, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WITH ABOVE GROUND LINES.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

THERE IS ABOUT 70 TO 90 PERCENT OR HIGHER CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS IN THE INLAND AND METRO MIAMI DADE, INLAND AND METRO
BROWARD, AND INLAND AND METRO PALM BEACH COUNTIES AREAS WITH THE
BEST CHANCES INLAND. THERE IS A LESS THAN 3 PERCENT CHANCE OF
HURRICANE CONDITIONS IN ALL THREE LOCATIONS.

THERE IS A 80 TO 100 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS IN
THE INLAND COLLIER, HENDRY, AND GLADES COUNTY AREAS WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR WESTERN SECTIONS. THERE IS A LESS THAN 5 PERCENT
CHANCE OF HURRICANE CONDITIONS MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AREAS.

...INLAND FLOODING...

THROUGH THIS EVENING, RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY HAVE
BEEN IN THE 2 TO 4 INCHES RANGE WITH POCKETS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH
HIGHEST AMOUNTS OBSERVED AROUND SOUTHEAST PALM BEACH COUNTY,
SECTIONS OF NORTHEAST AND METRO BROWARD, AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF
MIAMI DADE COUNTY OVER THE EVERGLADES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS AS
HIGH AS 12 INCHES POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WHERE TRAINING OF SPIRAL
BANDS OCCURS. THIS RAINFALL CAN EASILY CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING
POORLY DRAINED UNDERPASSES AND DRAINAGE DITCHES, AS WELL AS
PONDING OF RAINFALL RUNOFF IN PARKING LOTS. BE SURE THAT DEBRIS
DOES NOT CLOG DRAINAGE ROUTES IN ORDER TO EASE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY
RAINS. FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR IN AREAS WHERE TRAINING OF SQUALLS
SETS UP ACROSS THE SAME AREA FOR SEVERAL HOURS. MOTORISTS SHOULD
NEVER DRIVE ACROSS WATER OF AN UNKNOWN DEPTH, TURN AROUND DONT
DROWN. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

...TORNADOES...

MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF FAY
FOR MOST OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. THIS QUADRANT IS A
FAVORED LOCATION FOR SMALL QUICK STRIKING TORNADOES, ESPECIALLY IN
THE SPIRAL BANDS OF SQUALLS. AS THE STORM MAKES LANDFALL AND
CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH, THE MAIN THREAT OF TORNADO PRODUCING RAIN
BANDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD DURING THE DAYLIGHT MORNING
HOURS ON TUESDAY. A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 3 AM TUESDAY.

$$

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-191200-
/O.CON.KMFL.TR.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
BISCAYNE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT
20 NM-LAKE OKEECHOBEE-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM
TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
106 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
MARINE IMPACTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
TORNADO IMPACT UPDATED.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS: BISCAYNE BAY, LAKE OKEECHOBEE,
COASTAL WATERS FROM OCEAN REEF TO JUPITER INLET OUT 60 NAUTICAL
MILES.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:

	TORNADO WATCH.
	TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MARINERS SHOULD HAVE ALREADY COMPLETED ALL PRECAUTIONS FOR FAY.
MARINE CRAFT SHOULD STAY IN PORT THROUGH TUESDAY.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

THERE IS ABOUT A 35 TO 55 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. THERE
IS A LESS THAN 3 PERCENT CHANCE OF HURRICANE CONDITIONS IN THE
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

THERE IS ABOUT A 70 TO 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THERE IS A LESS THAN 5 PERCENT
CHANCE OF HURRICANE CONDITIONS FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

...TORNADOES...

SOUTH FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS WILL BE IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT
OF FAY FOR MOST OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. THIS QUADRANT
IS A FAVORED LOCATION FOR SMALL QUICK STRIKING TORNADOES,
ESPECIALLY IN THE SPIRAL BANDS OF SQUALLS. AS THE STORM MAKES
LANDFALL AND CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH, THE MAIN THREAT OF TORNADO
PRODUCING RAIN BANDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD DURING THE
DAYLIGHT MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT.

...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS...

PEAK WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 KNOTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT FOWEY ROCKS
LIGHT EARLIER MONDAY EVENING. SOME HIGHER WIND GUSTS ABOVE 40
KNOTS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE MIAMI-DADE COUNTY
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND WILL BE MOVING INTO THE BROWARD COUNTY
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SUSTAINED
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN SQUALLS
THROUGH THIS MORNING AND INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. IF FAY
INTENSIFIES BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL, SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITH GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE IN SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE ANY
TIME TODAY BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE. SEAS WILL BE AS HIGH
AS 7 TO 9 FEET AND POSSIBLY 10 TO 12 FEET OFFSHORE TODAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN VERY ROUGH SURF AND POSSIBLY MINOR BEACH EROSION.
THE RISK OF STRONG DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL BE HIGH ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST PARTICULARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY.

FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...WINDS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN IN THE 25 TO 30
KNOTS RANGE GUSTING WELL INTO THE 30S OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE, BECOMING 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS POSSIBLE IN SQUALLS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS, AND POSSIBLY AROUND 50 KNOTS WITH GUSTS CLOSE TO HURRICANE
FORCE IN THE EARLY DAYLIGHT HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. SINCE FAY IS
EXPECTED TO PASS WEST OF THE LAKE, SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL
BE BLOWING LAKE WATERS FROM THE SOUTH SHORE TOWARD THE NORTH
SHORE, RESULTING IN HIGHER THAN NORMAL LAKE LEVELS FROM CANAL
POINT NORTH TO THE TOWN OF OKEECHOBEE AND WEST TO LAKEPORT, WHILE
BELOW NORMAL LAKE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE BELLE GLADE, SOUTH
BAY AND CLEWISTON AREAS. IF FAY PASSES DIRECTLY OVER OR EAST OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE, THE WATER LEVELS IN THE LAKE WILL FLUCTUATE
DRAMATICALLY DEPENDING ON THE DIRECTION AND SPEED OF THE WIND.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 3 AM TUESDAY.

$$





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