[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

Mon Aug 18 23:06:48 CDT 2008

WTUS82 KMLB 190406 PAA
HLSMLB

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM FAY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1206 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

...THE FORECAST TRACK FOR TROPICAL STORM FAY HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE
MORE EAST...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING INLAND COUNTIES OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...OKEECHOBEE...
OSCEOLA...ORANGE...LAKE...SEMINOLE.

THIS STATEMENT ALSO RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN
THE FOLLOWING COASTAL COUNTIES...MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE...INDIAN
RIVER...BREVARD... AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE
TAKEN BY MARINERS IN THE FOLLOWING COASTAL WATER AREAS...FROM
JUPITER INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH AND OUT 60 NAUTICAL MILES.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL INLAND
COUNTIES OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL COUNTIES OF
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL ADJACENT MARINE
ZONES OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COUNTIES.

A TORNADO WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE...
OKEECHOBEE...OSCEOLA...INDIAN RIVER...AND BREVARD COUNTIES UNTIL 8
AM EDT. THIS INCLUDES THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 1100 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.9 WEST OR ABOUT 60 MILES
SOUTH OF NAPLES FLORIDA. THIS IS ABOUT 220 MILES SOUTH OF ORLANDO
FLORIDA.

FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...AND A SLIGHTLY EAST
OF NORTH MOTION IS EXPECTED. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL CROSS
THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INLAND
OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA LATER ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FAY
COULD STILL APPROACH HURRICANE STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
WEAKENING IS LIKELY WHILE FAY MOVES OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

FLZ047-054-059-064-141-147-200415-
/O.CON.KMLB.TR.W.1006.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
SOUTHERN BREVARD-INDIAN RIVER-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
NORTHERN BREVARD-
1206 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

...THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES AND FLOODING RAIN WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY...

...NEW INFORMATION...
A TORNADO WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE...
INDIAN RIVER...AND BREVARD COUNTIES UNTIL 8 AM EDT. THIS INCLUDES
THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COASTAL COUNTIES...MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE...INDIAN
RIVER...BREVARD... AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION. LOCAL COMMUNITIES SHOULD QUICKLY FINALIZE
PREPARATIONS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF AT LEAST A LOW IMPACT FROM
DAMAGING WIND. THE LIKELIHOOD EXISTS FOR WINDS TO CAUSE DAMAGE TO
UNANCHORED MOBILE HOMES...PORCHES...CARPORTS...AWNINGS...POOL
ENCLOSURES...WITH SOME SHINGLES BLOWN FROM ROOFS. LARGE BRANCHES
MAY BREAK OFF TREES...BUT SHALLOW ROOTED AND DISEASED TREES MAY
ALSO BE BLOWN DOWN. LOOSE OBJECTS CAN BE EASILY BLOWN ABOUT AND
BECOME DANGEROUS PROJECTILES. WINDS MAY BECOME DANGEROUS ON
BRIDGES AND CAUSEWAYS...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES...FORCING CLOSURES. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE.

WHILE THERE IS STILL TIME...MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS SHOULD STRONGLY
CONSIDER TEMPORARILY RELOCATING TO A MORE SECURE BUILDING OR
NEAREST SHELTER. BE SURE TO LET FRIENDS AND FAMILY KNOW OF YOUR
WHEREABOUTS AND INTENTIONS FOR SURVIVING THE STORM.

ALSO...KEEP CELL PHONES WELL CHARGED BEFORE THE STORM.

...WINDS...
MAXIMUM WINDS FOR THE AREA ARE FORECAST TO BE 30 TO 45 MPH...WITH
GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH. HOWEVER...ISOLATED GUSTS TO 73 MPH MAY
OCCUR IN CLOSE VICINITY OF THE CENTER TRACK OF FAY...AND JUST TO
ITS IMMEDIATE RIGHT. STRONG CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE
COMMON WITHIN RAINBANDS...WHICH WILL MAXIMIZE ALONG THE COAST.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE IN MARTIN...SAINT
LUCIE...AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
THEY WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO OSCEOLA...INDIAN RIVER...AND SOUTH
BREVARD BY AROUND SUNRISE. THEN...THEY WILL SPREAD FARTHER NORTH
INTO ORANGE COUNTY...SOUTH LAKE COUNTY...SEMINOLE COUNTY...AND
NORTH BREVARD COUNTY LATER IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...
AND THEN INTO NORTH LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK...WIND
CONDITIONS FOR LAKE COUNTY MAY NOT BE QUITE AS BAD SINCE THEY ARE
LOCATED WEST OF THE CURRENT TRACK. HOWEVER...THE CENTER TRACK OF
FAY IS FORECAST TO MOVE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY OF ORLANDO AND DAYTONA
BEACH.

GIVEN THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALONG WITH INHERENT FORECAST
UNCERTAINTIES IN CYCLONE TRACK AND INTENSITY...THERE IS AN
ELEVATED THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY FOR THE LOCAL AREA FROM HIGH
WINDS...WITH THE LIKELIHOOD FOR STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
OF 58 TO 73 MPH IN SOME OF THE HIGHER GUSTS. FOR A RESPONSIBLE
SAFETY MARGIN...PEOPLE SHOULD SMARTLY PREPARE FOR THESE WIND
SPEEDS.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
THERE IS A 60 TO 75 PERCENT CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
TO OVERSPREAD COASTAL AREAS FROM FROM CAPE CANAVERAL SOUTH...FROM
THE SOUTHWARD DIRECTION. FROM CAPE CANAVERAL NORTH...THE CHANCE IS
A LITTLE LESS AT 40 TO 60 PERCENT. AT THIS TIME...THE CHANCE FOR
HURRICANE CONDITIONS REMAINS 5 PERCENT OR LESS.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
WHEN CONSIDERING THE LATEST FORECAST AND INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES...
THERE IS A LIMITED THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY NEAR THE COAST AND
ALONG THE LOCAL BARRIER ISLANDS...WITH THE LIKELIHOOD FOR STORM
SURGE AND STORM TIDE WATERS TO REACH LEVELS OF 1 TO 2 FEET.

EFFECTS WILL BE GREATEST DURING TIMES OF PEAK ONSHORE WINDS
COINCIDENT WITH TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. THE NEXT HIGH TIDE ALONG THE
COAST FROM JUPITER INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH IS BETWEEN 1030 TO 1130
AM EDT.

COASTAL COMMUNITIES IN THE LOCAL AREA SHOULD PREPARE FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF AT LEAST A VERY LOW BUT NOTEWORTHY IMPACT FROM
COASTAL FLOODING. THE LIKELIHOOD EXISTS FOR MINOR TO MODERATE
BEACH EROSION WITH HEAVY SURF.

THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE LEVEL IS NEAR 11.3 FEET... WHICH IS BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SINCE FAY IS EXPECTED TO PASS WEST
OF THE LAKE... SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL BE BLOWING LAKE
WATERS FROM THE SOUTH SHORE TOWARD THE NORTH SHORE... RESULTING IN
HIGHER THAN NORMAL LAKE LEVELS FROM CANAL POINT NORTH TO THE TOWN
OF OKEECHOBEE AND WEST TO LAKEPORT... WHILE BELOW NORMAL LAKE
LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE BELLE GLADE... SOUTH BAY... AND
CLEWISTON AREAS. IF FAY PASSES DIRECTLY OVER OR EAST OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE... THE WATER LEVELS IN THE LAKE WILL FLUCTUATE
DRAMATICALLY DEPENDING ON THE DIRECTION AND SPEED OF THE WIND.

...INLAND FLOODING...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COUNTIES.
TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

OVERNIGHT...THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAL FLOODING WILL INCREASE FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AS RAIN BANDS CONTAINING TORRENTIAL TROPICAL
DOWNPOURS SPREAD NORTH...WITH MULTIPLE BANDS MOVING REPEATEDLY
OVER THE SAME AREAS. BY MORNING...THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL OCCUR FROM LAKE OKEECHOBEE ACROSS MARTIN AND SAINT LUCIE
COUNTIES...WHERE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IS FORECAST. FARTHER NORTH
TO AROUND ORLANDO AND COCOA BEACH...BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES IS
FORECAST...AND 1 INCH OR LESS WILL BE COMMON TO THE NORTH ACROSS
LAKE...SEMINOLE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES.

THEN...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TUESDAY WILL INCREASE RAINFALL TOTALS
AREAWIDE.

AT THIS TIME...NO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS EXPECTED ON THE SAINT
JOHNS RIVER BETWEEN LAKE HARNEY AND LAKE GEORGE.

...TORNADOES...
AS THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY MOVES NORTH TOWARD A SOUTH
FLORIDA LANDFALL TUESDAY MORNING...THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. ALL OF EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF
FAY... WHICH IS THE PREFERRED AREA FOR TORNADIC STORMS TO FORM.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL PRIME THE ATMOSPHERE TO
PRODUCE ROTATING STORMS...AND THESE TORNADIC STORMS ARE MOST
LIKELY TO OCCUR IN SPIRAL BANDS WHICH WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD AS
INDIVIDUAL CELLS MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THE INCREASING
TORNADIC THREAT WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AS WELL
AS THE TREASURE COAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND THEN
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TUESDAY
MORNING. THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC DAMAGE WILL BE ENHANCED NEAR
THE COAST DUE TO STRONGER ONSHORE WINDS BLOWING UNIMPEDED INTO
THESE AREAS.

AS A RESULT...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MARTIN...SAINT
LUCIE... INDIAN RIVER...AND BREVARD COUNTIES UNTIL 8 AM EDT. THIS
INCLUDES THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

SINCE THE THREAT FOR TORNADIC STORMS WILL BEGIN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...IT IS IMPERATIVE THAT YOU MAKE SURE YOUR NOAA
WEATHER RADIO IS SET TO WORK PROPERLY...WITH FRESH BATTERIES
INSTALLED IN THE EVENT OF A POWER OUTAGE.

THE TORNADIC THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY...UNTIL THE CENTER OF FAY HAS PASSED NORTH OF THE
AREA.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MELBOURNE AROUND 6 AM EDT...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...SEE
THE MELBOURNE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV
AND THEN CLICK ON EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

$$

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-200415-
/O.CON.KMLB.TR.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
1206 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL ADJACENT MARINE
ZONES OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY MARINERS IN THE
FOLLOWING COASTAL WATER AREAS...FROM JUPITER INLET TO FLAGLER
BEACH AND OUT 60 NAUTICAL MILES.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
LOCAL MARINERS SHOULD PREPARE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A HIGH
IMPACT...WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS DUE TO
INTENSE WINDS AND VERY HIGH COMBINED SEAS. BAY AND INLAND WATERS
MAY BECOME VERY ROUGH. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR OR
REMAIN IN PORT.

AT BEAUFORT SCALE 8...HIGH WAVES OF GREATER LENGTH FORM. AT
BEAUFORT SCALE 9...VERY HIGH WAVES BUILD WITH THE VISIBILITY
BECOMING AFFECTED BY BLOWING FOAM AND SPRAY. SMALL SHIPS MAY BE
LOST TO VIEW BEHIND WAVES.

...TORNADOES...
AS THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY MOVES NORTH TOWARD A SOUTH
FLORIDA LANDFALL TUESDAY MORNING...THE THREAT FOR TORNADIC
WATERSPOUTS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. ALL OF
THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS WILL BE LOCATED IN THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF FAY...WHICH IS THE PREFERRED AREA FOR
TORNADIC WATERSPOUTS TO FORM.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL PRIME THE ATMOSPHERE TO
PRODUCE ROTATING STORMS...AND THESE TORNADIC WATERSPOUTS ARE MOST
LIKELY TO OCCUR IN SPIRAL BANDS WHICH WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD AS
INDIVIDUAL CELLS MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THE INCREASING THREAT
WILL SPREAD NORTH ALONG THE TREASURE COAST DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...AND THEN NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
COASTAL WATERS TO FLAGLER BEACH TUESDAY MORNING. THE POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADIC TYPE DAMAGE TO PORTS...DOCKS...AND MARINAS..WILL BE
ENHANCED DUE TO STRONGER ONSHORE WINDS BLOWING UNIMPEDED INTO
THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADIC WATERSPOUT THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY...UNTIL THE CENTER OF FAY HAS PASSED NORTH OF
THE AREA.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MELBOURNE AROUND 6 AM EDT...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...SEE
THE MELBOURNE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV
AND THEN CLICK ON EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

$$

FLZ041-044>046-053-058-144-200415-
/O.CON.KMLB.TI.W.0001.000000T0000Z-080820T0800Z/
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-OSCEOLA-OKEECHOBEE-
SOUTHERN LAKE-
1206 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

...THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES AND FLOODING RAIN WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY...

...NEW INFORMATION...
A TORNADO WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR OKEECHOBEE AND OSCEOLA COUNTIES
UNTIL 8 AM EDT.

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING INLAND COUNTIES OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...OKEECHOBEE
...OSCEOLA...ORANGE...LAKE...SEMINOLE. THIS ALSO INCLUDES INLAND
VOLUSIA COUNTY.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION. LOCAL COMMUNITIES SHOULD QUICKLY FINALIZE
PREPARATIONS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF AT LEAST A LOW IMPACT FROM
DAMAGING WIND. THE LIKELIHOOD EXISTS FOR WINDS TO CAUSE DAMAGE TO
UNANCHORED MOBILE HOMES...PORCHES...CARPORTS... AWNINGS...POOL
ENCLOSURES...WITH SOME SHINGLES BLOWN FROM ROOFS. LARGE BRANCHES
MAY BREAK OFF TREES...BUT SHALLOW ROOTED AND DISEASED TREES MAY
ALSO BE BLOWN DOWN. LOOSE OBJECTS CAN BE EASILY BLOWN ABOUT AND
BECOME DANGEROUS PROJECTILES. WINDS MAY BECOME DANGEROUS ON
BRIDGES AND CAUSEWAYS...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES...FORCING CLOSURES. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE.

WHILE THERE IS STILL TIME...MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS SHOULD STRONGLY
CONSIDER TEMPORARILY RELOCATING TO A MORE SECURE BUILDING OR
NEAREST SHELTER. BE SURE TO LET FRIENDS AND FAMILY KNOW OF YOUR
WHEREABOUTS AND INTENTIONS FOR SURVIVING THE STORM.

ALSO...KEEP CELL PHONES WELL CHARGED BEFORE THE STORM.

...WINDS...
MAXIMUM WINDS FOR THE AREA ARE FORECAST TO BE 30 TO 45 MPH...WITH
GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH. HOWEVER...ISOLATED GUSTS TO 73 MPH MAY
OCCUR IN CLOSE VICINITY OF THE CENTER TRACK OF FAY...AND JUST TO
ITS IMMEDIATE RIGHT. STRONG CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE
COMMON WITHIN RAINBANDS...WHICH WILL MAXIMIZE ALONG THE COAST.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE IN MARTIN...SAINT
LUCIE...AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
THEY WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO OSCEOLA...INDIAN RIVER...AND SOUTH
BREVARD BY AROUND SUNRISE. THEN...THEY WILL SPREAD FARTHER NORTH
INTO ORANGE COUNTY...SOUTH LAKE COUNTY...SEMINOLE COUNTY...AND
NORTH BREVARD COUNTY LATER IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...
AND THEN INTO NORTH LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK...WIND
CONDITIONS FOR LAKE COUNTY MAY NOT BE QUITE AS BAD SINCE THEY ARE
LOCATED WEST OF THE CURRENT TRACK. HOWEVER...THE CENTER TRACK OF
FAY IS FORECAST TO MOVE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY OF ORLANDO AND DAYTONA
BEACH.

GIVEN THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALONG WITH INHERENT FORECAST
UNCERTAINTIES IN CYCLONE TRACK AND INTENSITY...THERE IS AN
ELEVATED THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY FOR THE LOCAL AREA FROM HIGH
WINDS...WITH THE LIKELIHOOD FOR STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
OF 58 TO 73 MPH IN SOME OF THE HIGHER GUSTS. FOR A RESPONSIBLE
SAFETY MARGIN...PEOPLE SHOULD SMARTLY PREPARE FOR THESE WIND
SPEEDS.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
THERE IS A 55 TO 80 PERCENT CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
TO OVERSPREAD INLAND COUNTIES FROM LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO KISSIMMEE...
FROM THE SOUTH DIRECTION. THE CITY OF ORLANDO HAS ABOUT A 50
PERCENT CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...WITH DECREASING
CHANCES TO 35 PERCENT NORTHWARD TO LAKE GEORGE. AT THIS TIME...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS REMAINS 5 PERCENT OR LESS.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...SINCE FAY IS EXPECTED TO PASS WEST OF THE
LAKE...SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL BE BLOWING LAKE WATERS FROM
THE SOUTH SHORE TOWARD THE NORTH SHORE...RESULTING IN HIGHER THAN
NORMAL LAKE LEVELS FROM CANAL POINT NORTH TO THE TOWN OF
OKEECHOBEE AND WEST TO LAKEPORT...WHILE BELOW NORMAL LAKE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE BELLE GLADE...SOUTH BAY AND CLEWISTON
AREAS. IF FAY PASSES DIRECTLY OVER OR EAST OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE...THE WATER LEVELS IN THE LAKE WILL FLUCTUATE
DRAMATICALLY DEPENDING ON THE DIRECTION AND SPEED OF THE WIND.

...INLAND FLOODING...
A FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
COUNTIES. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE.

OVERNIGHT...THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAL FLOODING WILL INCREASE FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AS RAIN BANDS CONTAINING TORRENTIAL TROPICAL
DOWNPOURS SPREAD NORTH ...WITH MULTIPLE BANDS MOVING REPEATEDLY
OVER THE SAME AREAS. BY MORNING...THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL OCCUR FROM LAKE OKEECHOBEE ACROSS MARTIN AND SAINT LUCIE
COUNTIES ...WHERE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IS FORECAST. FARTHER NORTH
TO AROUND ORLANDO AND COCOA BEACH...BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES IS
FORECAST...AND 1 INCH OR LESS WILL BE COMMON TO THE NORTH ACROSS
LAKE...SEMINOLE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES.

THEN...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TUESDAY WILL INCREASE RAINFALL TOTALS
AREAWIDE.

AT THIS TIME...NO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS EXPECTED ON THE SAINT
JOHNS RIVER BETWEEN LAKE HARNEY AND LAKE GEORGE.

...TORNADOES...
AS THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY MOVES NORTH TOWARD A SOUTH
FLORIDA LANDFALL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES
WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING THROUGH OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT OF FAY...WHICH IS THE PREFERRED AREA FOR TORNADIC STORMS
TO FORM.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL PRIME THE ATMOSPHERE TO
PRODUCE ROTATING STORMS...AND THESE TORNADIC STORMS ARE MOST
LIKELY TO OCCUR IN SPIRAL BANDS WHICH WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD AS
INDIVIDUAL CELLS MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THE INCREASING
TORNADIC THREAT WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AS WELL
AS THE TREASURE COAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND THEN
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TUESDAY
MORNING. THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC DAMAGE WILL BE ENHANCED NEAR
THE COAST DUE TO STRONGER ONSHORE WINDS BLOWING UNIMPEDED INTO
THESE AREAS.

AS A RESULT...A TORNADO WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR OKEECHOBEE
AND OSCEOLA COUNTIES UNTIL 8 AM EDT.

SINCE THE THREAT FOR TORNADIC STORMS WILL BEGIN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...IT IS IMPERATIVE THAT YOU MAKE SURE YOUR NOAA
WEATHER RADIO IS SET TO WORK PROPERLY...WITH FRESH BATTERIES
INSTALLED IN THE EVENT OF A POWER OUTAGE.

THE TORNADIC THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY...UNTIL THE CENTER OF FAY HAS PASSED NORTH OF THE
AREA.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MELBOURNE AROUND 6 AM EDT...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...SEE
THE MELBOURNE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV
AND THEN CLICK ON EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

$$

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