[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

EMWIN Server emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Mon Aug 18 17:53:40 CDT 2008


WTUS82 KMLB 182253 PAA
HLSMLB

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM FAY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
653 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...


...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING INLAND COUNTIES OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...OKEECHOBEE
...OSCEOLA...ORANGE...LAKE...SEMINOLE.

THIS STATEMENT ALSO RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN
THE FOLLOWING COASTAL COUNTIES...MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE...INDIAN
RIVER...BREVARD... AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN
BY MARINERS IN THE FOLLOWING COASTAL WATER AREAS...FROM JUPITER
INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH AND OUT 60 NAUTICAL MILES.


...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL INLAND COUNTIES
OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL COUNTIES OF
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL ADJACENT MARINE
ZONES OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

A FLOOD WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE...AND
OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES. THIS WATCH WILL BE EXTENDED TO COVER THE
REMAINDER OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA LATER TONIGHT.


...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 500 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.9 WEST OR NEAR KEY WEST
FLORIDA. THIS IS ABOUT 270 MILES SOUTH OF ORLANDO FLORIDA.

FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
LATER TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A GENERALLY NORTHWARD MOTION TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF FAY NEAR THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND FAY IS
FORECAST TO BE AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES
LANDFALL.


FLZ047-054-059-064-141-147-192300-
/O.CON.KMLB.TR.W.1006.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
SOUTHERN BREVARD-INDIAN RIVER-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
NORTHERN BREVARD-
653 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...FAY MOVING EVER CLOSER TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...


...NEW INFORMATION...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL COUNTIES OF
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.


...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COASTAL COUNTIES...MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE...INDIAN
RIVER...BREVARD... AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES.


...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
LOCAL COMMUNITIES SHOULD PREPARE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF AT LEAST A
LOW IMPACT FROM DAMAGING WIND. THE LIKELIHOOD EXISTS FOR WINDS TO
CAUSE DAMAGE TO UNANCHORED MOBILE HOMES...PORCHES...CARPORTS...
AWNINGS...POOL ENCLOSURES...WITH SOME SHINGLES BLOWN FROM ROOFS.
LARGE BRANCHES MAY BREAK OFF TREES...BUT SHALLOW ROOTED AND DISEASED
TREES MAY ALSO BE BLOWN DOWN. LOOSE OBJECTS CAN BE EASILY BLOWN
ABOUT AND BECOME DANGEROUS PROJECTILES. WINDS MAY BECOME DANGEROUS
ON BRIDGES AND CAUSEWAYS...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES...
FORCING CLOSURES. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE. POTENTIAL
DAMAGE IS CONSISTENT WITH THAT REALIZED BY WINDS OF STRONG TROPICAL
STORM FORCE.


...WINDS...
MAXIMUM WINDS FOR THE AREA ARE FORECAST TO BE 30 TO 35 MPH...WITH
GUSTS TO 50 MPH. ISOLATED GUSTS TO 70 MPH MAY OCCUR IN VICINITY OF
THE CENTER TRACK OF FAY...AND JUST TO ITS RIGHT. STRONG
CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE COMMON WITHIN RAINBANDS...WHICH
WILL MAXIMIZE ALONG THE COAST. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO ARRIVE IN MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE...AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THEY WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO
OSCEOLA...INDIAN RIVER...AND SOUTH BREVARD BY SUNRISE. THEN...THEY
WILL SPREAD FARTHER NORTH INTO ORANGE COUNTY...SOUTH LAKE
COUNTY...SEMINOLE COUNTY...AND NORTH BREVARD COUNTY DURING THE
MORNING...AND THEN INTO NORTH LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON.

GIVEN THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALONG WITH INHERENT FORECAST
UNCERTAINTIES IN CYCLONE TRACK AND INTENSITY...THERE IS AN ELEVATED
THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY FOR THE LOCAL AREA FROM HIGH
WINDS...WITH THE LIKELIHOOD FOR STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF
58 TO 73 MPH IN SOME OF THE HIGHER GUSTS.


...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
THERE IS A 60 TO 75 PERCENT CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
TO OVERSPREAD COASTAL COUNTIES FROM THE SOUTH DIRECTION. THIS
REPRESENTS AN INCREASE IN THE PROBABILITY TREND. THE CITIES OF
COCOA BEACH AND FORT PIERCE HAVE ABOUT A 65 PERCENT CHANCE FOR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS. AT THIS TIME...THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE
CONDITIONS IS 5 PERCENT OR LESS.


...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
WHEN CONSIDERING THE LATEST FORECAST AND INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES...
THERE IS A LIMITED THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY NEAR THE COAST AND
ALONG THE LOCAL BARRIER ISLANDS...WITH THE LIKELIHOOD FOR STORM
SURGE AND STORM TIDE WATERS TO REACH LEVELS OF 2 FEET OR LESS.
EFFECTS WILL BE GREATEST DURING TIMES OF PEAK ONSHORE WINDS
COINCIDENT WITH TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

COASTAL COMMUNITIES IN THE LOCAL AREA SHOULD PREPARE FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF AT LEAST A VERY LOW BUT NOTEWORTHY IMPACT FROM COASTAL
FLOODING. THE LIKELIHOOD EXISTS FOR MINOR TO MODERATE BEACH EROSION
WITH HEAVY SURF.

FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...SINCE FAY IS EXPECTED TO PASS WEST OF THE
LAKE...SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL BE BLOWING LAKE WATERS FROM
THE SOUTH SHORE TOWARD THE NORTH SHORE...RESULTING IN HIGHER THAN
NORMAL LAKE LEVELS FROM CANAL POINT NORTH TO THE TOWN OF
OKEECHOBEE AND WEST TO LAKEPORT...WHILE BELOW NORMAL LAKE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE BELLE GLADE...SOUTH BAY AND CLEWISTON
AREAS. IF FAY PASSES DIRECTLY OVER OR EAST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE...THE
WATER LEVELS IN THE LAKE WILL FLUCTUATE DRAMATICALLY DEPENDING ON
THE DIRECTION AND SPEED OF THE WIND.


...INLAND FLOODING...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE...AND
OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES. THIS WATCH WILL BE EXTENDED TO COVER THE
REMAINDER OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA LATER TONIGHT.

THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING WILL INCREASE TONIGHT FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH AS RAIN BANDS CONTAINING TORRENTIAL TROPICAL DOWNPOURS
SPREAD NORTHWARD...WITH MULTIPLE BANDS MOVING REPEATEDLY OVER THE
SAME AREAS. THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL OCCUR FROM LAKE OKEECHOBEE ACROSS MARTIN AND SAINT LUCIE
COUNTIES...WHERE TWO TO FOUR INCHES IS FORECAST. FARTHER NORTH TO
AROUND ORLANDO AND COCOA BEACH...BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES IS
LIKELY...AND ONE INCH OR LESS WILL BE COMMON TO THE NORTH ACROSS
LAKE...SEMINOLE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TUESDAY WILL INCREASE RAINFALL TOTALS AREAWIDE.


...TORNADOES...
AS THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY MOVES NORTH TOWARD A SOUTH
FLORIDA LANDFALL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES
WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING THROUGH OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT OF FAY...WHICH IS THE PREFERRED AREA FOR TORNADIC STORMS
TO FORM.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL PRIME THE ATMOSPHERE TO PRODUCE
ROTATING STORMS...AND THESE TORNADIC STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR
IN SPIRAL BANDS WHICH WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD AS INDIVIDUAL CELLS MOVE
NORTHWEST. THE INCREASING TORNADIC THREAT WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO
OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AS WELL AS THE TREASURE COAST BY THIS EVENING...
AND THEN NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
OVERNIGHT. THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC DAMAGE WILL BE FURTHER
ENHANCED NEAR THE COAST DUE TO STRONGER ONSHORE WINDS BLOWING
UNIMPEDED INTO THESE AREAS.

TORNADO WATCHES CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ARE VERY
LIKELY TO BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD LATER THIS EVENING. SINCE THE THREAT
FOR TORNADIC STORMS WILL OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...IT IS
IMPERATIVE THAT YOU MAKE SURE YOUR NOAA WEATHER RADIO IS SET TO WORK
PROPERLY...WITH FRESH BATTERIES INSTALLED IN THE EVENT OF A POWER
OUTAGE.


...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MELBOURNE AROUND MIDNIGHT EDT...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...SEE THE
MELBOURNE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV AND THEN
CLICK ON EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.


$$

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-192300-
/O.CON.KMLB.TR.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
653 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...FAY MOVING EVER CLOSER TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...


...NEW INFORMATION...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL ADJACENT MARINE
ZONES OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE WARNING WAS EXTENDED NORTH TO
FLAGLER BEACH.


...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY MARINERS IN THE
FOLLOWING COASTAL WATER AREAS...FROM JUPITER INLET TO FLAGLER
BEACH AND OUT 60 NAUTICAL MILES.


...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
LOCAL MARINERS SHOULD PREPARE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A HIGH
IMPACT...WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS DUE TO
INTENSE WINDS AND VERY HIGH COMBINED SEAS. BAY AND INLAND WATERS MAY
BECOME VERY ROUGH. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR OR REMAIN IN
PORT.

AT BEAUFORT SCALE 8...HIGH WAVES OF GREATER LENGTH FORM. AT BEAUFORT
SCALE 9...VERY HIGH WAVES BUILD WITH THE VISIBILITY BECOMING
AFFECTED BY BLOWING FOAM AND SPRAY. SMALL SHIPS MAY BE LOST TO VIEW
BEHIND WAVES.


...MARINE...
AS TROPICAL STORM FAY LIFTS NORTHWARD FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS...
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE
AFTER MIDNIGHT OFFSHORE THE TREASURE COAST OF MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE
AND INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES. THESE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD TUESDAY ACROSS THE BREVARD AND VOLUSIA COUNTY
COASTAL WATERS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 7 FEET TONIGHT
OFFSHORE THE TREASURE COAST...THEN REACH 8 TO 10 FEET ACROSS ALL
THE WATERS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AS TROPICAL STORM FAY EXITS
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW TROPICAL
STORM FORCE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. HOWEVER...STRONG SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES.


...TORNADOES...
AS THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY MOVES NORTH TOWARD A SOUTH
FLORIDA LANDFALL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES
AND WATERSPOUTS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING THROUGH OVERNIGHT FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF
FAY...WHICH IS THE PREFERRED AREA FOR TORNADIC STORMS TO FORM.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL PRIME THE ATMOSPHERE TO PRODUCE
ROTATING STORMS...AND THESE TORNADIC STORMS AND WATERSPOUTS ARE
MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR IN SPIRAL BANDS WHICH WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD
AS INDIVIDUAL CELLS MOVE NORTHWEST. THE INCREASING TORNADIC THREAT
WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO THE WATERS OFFSHORE THE TREASURE COAST BY
THIS EVENING... AND THEN NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA WATERS OVERNIGHT. THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC
DAMAGE TO PORTS...DOCKS...AND MARINAS..WILL BE ENHANCED DUE TO
STRONGER ONSHORE WINDS BLOWING UNIMPEDED INTO THESE AREAS.


...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MELBOURNE AROUND MIDNIGHT EDT...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...SEE THE
MELBOURNE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV AND THEN
CLICK ON EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.


$$

FLZ041-044>046-053-058-144-192300-
/O.CON.KMLB.TI.W.0001.000000T0000Z-080820T0800Z/
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-OSCEOLA-OKEECHOBEE-
SOUTHERN LAKE-
653 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...FAY MOVING EVER CLOSER TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...


...NEW INFORMATION...
A TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL INLAND
COUNTIES OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.


...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING INLAND COUNTIES OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...OKEECHOBEE
...OSCEOLA...ORANGE...LAKE...SEMINOLE. THIS ALSO INCLUDES INLAND
VOLUSIA COUNTY.


...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
LOCAL COMMUNITIES SHOULD PREPARE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF AT LEAST A
LOW IMPACT FROM DAMAGING WIND. THE LIKELIHOOD EXISTS FOR WINDS TO
CAUSE DAMAGE TO UNANCHORED MOBILE HOMES...PORCHES...CARPORTS...
AWNINGS...POOL ENCLOSURES...WITH SOME SHINGLES BLOWN FROM ROOFS.
LARGE BRANCHES MAY BREAK OFF TREES...BUT SHALLOW ROOTED AND DISEASED
TREES MAY ALSO BE BLOWN DOWN. LOOSE OBJECTS CAN BE EASILY BLOWN
ABOUT AND BECOME DANGEROUS PROJECTILES. WINDS MAY BECOME DANGEROUS
ON BRIDGES AND CAUSEWAYS...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES...
FORCING CLOSURES. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE. POTENTIAL
DAMAGE IS CONSISTENT WITH THAT REALIZED BY WINDS OF STRONG TROPICAL
STORM FORCE.


...WIND...
MAXIMUM WINDS FOR THE AREA ARE FORECAST TO BE 30 TO 35 MPH...WITH
GUSTS TO 50 MPH. ISOLATED GUSTS TO 70 MPH MAY OCCUR IN VICINITY OF
THE CENTER TRACK OF FAY...AND JUST TO ITS RIGHT. STRONG
CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE COMMON WITHIN RAINBANDS...WHICH
WILL MAXIMIZE ALONG THE COAST. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO ARRIVE IN MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE...AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THEY WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO
OSCEOLA...INDIAN RIVER...AND SOUTH BREVARD BY SUNRISE. THEN...THEY
WILL SPREAD FARTHER NORTH INTO ORANGE COUNTY...SOUTH LAKE
COUNTY...SEMINOLE COUNTY...AND NORTH BREVARD COUNTY DURING THE
MORNING...AND THEN INTO NORTH LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON.

GIVEN THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALONG WITH INHERENT FORECAST
UNCERTAINTIES IN CYCLONE TRACK AND INTENSITY...THERE IS AN ELEVATED
THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY FOR THE LOCAL AREA FROM HIGH
WINDS...WITH THE LIKELIHOOD FOR STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF
58 TO 73 MPH IN SOME OF THE HIGHER GUSTS.


...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
THERE IS A 60 TO 75 PERCENT CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
TO OVERSPREAD INLAND COUNTIES FROM THE SOUTH DIRECTION. THIS
REPRESENTS AN INCREASE IN THE PROBABILITY TREND. THE HIGHER
CHANCES WILL BE FOR OKEECHOBEE COUNTY...GRADUALLY DECREASING
NORTHWARD. THE CITY OF ORLANDO HAS ABOUT A 70 PERCENT CHANCE FOR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS. AT THIS TIME...THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE
CONDITIONS IS 5 PERCENT OR LESS.


...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...SINCE FAY IS EXPECTED TO PASS WEST OF THE
LAKE...SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL BE BLOWING LAKE WATERS FROM
THE SOUTH SHORE TOWARD THE NORTH SHORE...RESULTING IN HIGHER THAN
NORMAL LAKE LEVELS FROM CANAL POINT NORTH TO THE TOWN OF
OKEECHOBEE AND WEST TO LAKEPORT...WHILE BELOW NORMAL LAKE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE BELLE GLADE...SOUTH BAY AND CLEWISTON
AREAS. IF FAY PASSES DIRECTLY OVER OR EAST OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE...THE WATER LEVELS IN THE LAKE WILL FLUCTUATE
DRAMATICALLY DEPENDING ON THE DIRECTION AND SPEED OF THE WIND.


...INLAND FLOODING...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE...AND
OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES. THIS WATCH WILL BE EXTENDED TO COVER THE
REMAINDER OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA LATER TONIGHT.

THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING WILL INCREASE TONIGHT FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH AS RAIN BANDS CONTAINING TORRENTIAL TROPICAL DOWNPOURS
SPREAD NORTHWARD...WITH MULTIPLE BANDS MOVING REPEATEDLY OVER THE
SAME AREAS. THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL OCCUR FROM LAKE OKEECHOBEE ACROSS MARTIN AND SAINT LUCIE
COUNTIES...WHERE TWO TO FOUR INCHES IS FORECAST. FARTHER NORTH TO
AROUND ORLANDO AND COCOA BEACH...BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES IS
LIKELY...AND ONE INCH OR LESS WILL BE COMMON TO THE NORTH ACROSS
LAKE...SEMINOLE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TUESDAY WILL INCREASE RAINFALL TOTALS AREAWIDE.


...TORNADOES...
AS THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY MOVES NORTH TOWARD A SOUTH
FLORIDA LANDFALL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES
WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING THROUGH OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT OF FAY...WHICH IS THE PREFERRED AREA FOR TORNADIC STORMS
TO FORM.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL PRIME THE ATMOSPHERE TO PRODUCE
ROTATING STORMS...AND THESE TORNADIC STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR
IN SPIRAL BANDS WHICH WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD AS INDIVIDUAL CELLS MOVE
NORTHWEST. THE INCREASING TORNADIC THREAT WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO
OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AS WELL AS THE TREASURE COAST BY THIS EVENING...
AND THEN NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
OVERNIGHT. THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC DAMAGE WILL BE FURTHER
ENHANCED NEAR THE COAST DUE TO STRONGER ONSHORE WINDS BLOWING
UNIMPEDED INTO THESE AREAS.

TORNADO WATCHES CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ARE VERY
LIKELY TO BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD LATER THIS EVENING. SINCE THE THREAT
FOR TORNADIC STORMS WILL OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...IT IS
IMPERATIVE THAT YOU MAKE SURE YOUR NOAA WEATHER RADIO IS SET TO WORK
PROPERLY...WITH FRESH BATTERIES INSTALLED IN THE EVENT OF A POWER
OUTAGE.


...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MELBOURNE AROUND MIDNIGHT EDT...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...SEE THE
MELBOURNE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV AND THEN
CLICK ON EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

$$




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