[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT31 KNHC 182041
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
500 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM FLAMINGO TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND.  A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 5 PM EDT...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ON THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
IS EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM FLAGLER BEACH
SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF ANNA MARIA ISLAND TO TARPON
SPRINGS.  A HURRICANE WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE HURRICANE WATCH IS DISCONTINUED FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST...INCLUDING THE DRY
TORTUGAS...AND FOR THE FLORIDA MAINLAND EAST OF FLAMINGO TO CARD
SOUND BRIDGE.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS
AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.9 WEST OR NEAR KEY WEST
FLORIDA AND ABOUT 145 MILES...235 KM...SOUTH OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA.

FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR.
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A GENERALLY NORTHWARD MOTION TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.  THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF FAY AWAY
FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT...AND NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF FLORIDA ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND FAY IS
FORECAST TO BE AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM
FROM THE CENTER.  THE NOAA AUTOMATED STATION AT SOMBRERO KEY FLORIDA
RECENTLY REPORTED 2-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS OF 60 MPH...96 KM/HR...AND
AN ELEVATION OF 159 FEET.  THE NOAA AUTOMATED STATION AT SAND KEY
FLORIDA RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 71 MPH...115 KM/HR...AT AN
ELEVATION OF 149 FT.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE
IN KEY WEST IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.

STORM TIDES OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR THE CENTER OF FAY.  TIDES OF 2
TO 4 FT ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.

FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO
5 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF CUBA...WITH STORM TOTAL
AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES BEING POSSIBLE.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE
THREATENING FLASH-FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.  RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES...ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA.  RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS..AND
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...24.6 N...81.9 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

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