[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KMFL 181905 AAA
HLSMFL

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE LOCAL STATEMENT...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
305 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...FAY CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA...

.AT 200 PM EDT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 81.6 WEST. THIS LOCATION IS ABOUT
130 MILES SOUTH OF NAPLES, 135 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MIAMI, OR ABOUT
185 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WEST PALM BEACH.

FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH A GENERALLY NORTHWARD MOTION EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF FAY SHOULD PASS OVER
THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS, AND PASS CLOSE
TO NAPLES AND MARCO ISLAND ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AND FAY IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE AS IT NEARS THE SOUTHWESTERN
FLORIDA COAST ON TUESDAY.

FLZ174-182215-
/O.CON.KMFL.TR.W.1006.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KMFL.HU.A.1006.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
305 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

LOCATION UPDATED.
TIMING UPDATED.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS:

FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:

FLOOD WATCH.
TORNADO WATCH.
TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
HURRICANE WATCH.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ALL PREPARATIONS FOR FAY SHOULD HAVE BEEN COMPLETED. TROPICAL
STORM FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS, GUSTING AS HIGH AS 45 MPH, ARE NOW
OCCURRING IN PARTS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND WILL BE APPROACHING THE
FAR SOUTH DADE COUNTY AREA BY 3 PM.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

STORM TIDE ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF FLORIDA BAY EAST OF FLAMINGO
WILL POSSIBLY BE 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL WITH ONSHORE TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS WITH FAY, PARTICULARLY AT THE TIMES OF HIGH
TIDE. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AT THESE TIMES. HIGH TIDE
ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF FLORIDA BAY WILL BE MID AFTERNOON TODAY.

...WINDS...

TROPICAL STORM FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS, GUSTING AS HIGH AS 45 MPH,
ARE NOW OCCURRING IN PARTS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND WILL BE MOVING
INTO FAR SOUTH DADE COUNTY BY 3 PM. WITH THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COASTAL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY, WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY
INCREASE WITH GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 60 TO 70 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE IN SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THIS EVENING
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON TUESDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY
NIGHT.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

THERE IS A 75 TO 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE FAR SOUTH MIAMI-DADE COAST
EXPERIENCING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS, WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH,
WITH FAY. THERE IS ABOUT A 3 TO 5 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE FAR SOUTH
MIAMI-DADE COAST EXPERIENCING HURRICANE CONDITIONS, OR WINDS OF 74
MPH OR GREATER.

...INLAND FLOODING...

MAXIMUM RAINFALL AMOUNTS SO FAR HAVE BEEN FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES
ACROSS PARTS OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY, ESPECIALLY WHERE THE SPIRAL
BANDS HAVE PERSISTED FOR A FEW HOURS. MARATHON IN THE MIDDLE KEYS
REPORTED OVER THREE AND A HALF INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH 2 PM EDT. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS
AS HIGH AS 12 INCHES POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WHERE TRAINING OF SPIRAL
BANDS OCCURS. THIS RAINFALL CAN EASILY CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING
POORLY DRAINED UNDERPASSES AND DRAINAGE DITCHES, AS WELL AS
PONDING OF RAINFALL RUNOFF IN PARKING LOTS. BE SURE THAT DEBRIS
DOES NOT CLOG DRAINAGE ROUTES IN ORDER TO EASE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY
RAINS. FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR IN AREAS WHERE TRAINING OF SQUALLS
SETS UP ACROSS THE SAME AREA FOR SEVERAL HOURS. MOTORISTS SHOULD
NEVER DRIVE ACROSS WATER OF AN UNKNOWN DEPTH, TURN AROUND DONT
DROWN. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

...TORNADOES...

MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF FAY
FOR MOST OF THE DAY TODAY AND THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. THIS
QUADRANT IS A FAVORED LOCATION FOR SMALL QUICK STRIKING TORNADOES,
ESPECIALLY IN THE SPIRAL BANDS OF SQUALLS. A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 6 PM EDT.

$$

FLZ069-075-182215-
/O.CON.KMFL.HU.W.1006.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL COLLIER-MAINLAND MONROE-
305 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

LOCATION UPDATED.
TIMING UPDATED.
RAINFALL UPDATED.
STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE UPDATED.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS:

COASTAL COLLIER...MAINLAND MONROE.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:

FLOOD WATCH.
TORNADO WATCH.
HURRICANE WARNING.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ALL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM THE EFFECTS OF
A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE SHOULD BE COMPLETE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS NOW MOVING THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE SPREADING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD METRO COLLIER COUNTY AND
EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. FAY WILL LIKELY BE SLOWLY STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE VERY WARM WATERS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND SOUTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO.

THERE IS STILL A LITTLE TIME FOR VOLUNTARY EVACUATION FOR COASTAL
RESIDENTS OF CHOKOLOSKEE, HENDERSON CREEK, EVERGLADES CITY,
GOODLAND, MARCO ISLAND, GORDON RIVER, AND ANY OTHER EXPOSED LOW
LYING COASTAL AREAS. THE STATEMENT ALSO APPLIES TO RESIDENTS OF
MANUFACTURED HOMES. COLLIER COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
ANTICIPATES OPENING THREE SHELTERS AROUND 4 PM EDT.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF FAY IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST VERY CLOSE TO
NAPLES AND MARCO ISLAND INCREASING TO A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE
TUESDAY MORNING JUST OFF THE COLLIER COASTLINE. GIVEN THE FORECAST
WIND CONDITIONS AS THE STORM PASSES, STORM TIDE OF 3 TO 6 FEET
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE CAPE SABLE AND FLAMINGO AREAS OF
EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK PARTICULARLY AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH
TIDE AROUND 4 AM AND AGAIN AT 4 PM TUESDAY. A STORM TIDE OF 4 TO 6
FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE MAINLAND
MONROE AND COLLIER COUNTY COASTLINE FROM CHOKOLOSKEE AND
EVERGLADES CITY WEST TO COLLIER SEMINOLE STATE PARK, GOODLAND AND
MARCO ISLAND FROM 5 AM TO 8 AM TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY AGAIN AT THE
SECOND HIGH TIDE AROUND 5 PM TUESDAY. MINOR FLOODING OF COASTAL
ROADS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE TIMES OF
HIGH TIDE.

HOWEVER, SHOULD THE STORM BE STRONGER OR MOVE TO THE RIGHT OF
THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, A STORM TIDE OF 6 TO 10 FEET AT ANY
GIVEN COASTAL LOCATION IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE
THE STORM MAKES LANDFALL. A STORM TIDE OF 10 FEET WOULD MEAN THAT
MANY ROADWAYS COULD GO UNDERWATER INCLUDING PARTS OF THE TAMIAMI
TRAIL, STATE ROADS 951 AND 92 WHICH LINK MARCO ISLAND TO THE
MAINLAND AND STATE ROAD 29 WHICH LINKS CHOKOLOSKEE AND EVERGLADES
CITY TO THE TAMIAMI TRAIL. COLLIER SEMINOLE STATE PARK WOULD ALSO
HAVE SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING.

FOR COASTAL RESIDENTS OF NAPLES AND MARCO ISLAND, A STORM TIDE OF
3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL IS POSSIBLE, MAINLY FROM 6 AM TO
NOON WITH UNUSUALLY HIGH WATER CONTINUING THROUGH THE TIME OF THE
SECOND HIGH TIDE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON, ROUGHLY 3 PM.

A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION HAS BEEN URGED BY COLLIER COUNTY EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT FOR MANY RESIDENTS OF LOW LYING COMMUNITIES IN COLLIER
COUNTY.

...WINDS...

WIND SPEEDS ACROSS METRO COLLIER COUNTY AT 2 PM RANGE FROM 12 TO
15 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 MPH IN SOME PLACES, STILL WELL
BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE,
WITH GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE REACHING THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON.
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 50 TO 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
HURRICANE FORCE IN SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR THE METRO
COLLIER COASTLINE INCLUDING NAPLES AND MARCO ISLAND, FROM LATE EVENING
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY
NIGHT. CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS IN EXCESS OF
74 MPH ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON TUESDAY. FAY HAS A VERY LOPSIDED WIND FIELD BUT ON THE
PRESENT FORECAST TRACK SOME OF THE STRONGEST CATEGORY ONE
HURRICANE FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FOR METRO NAPLES AND
MARCO ISLAND.

WINDS IN THIS SPEED RANGE ARE CAPABLE OF CAUSING DAMAGE TO
UNANCHORED MOBILE HOMES AND TRAILERS, PORCHES, CARPORTS, AWNINGS, POOL
ENCLOSURES AND WITH SOME SHINGLES BLOWN FROM ROOFS. LARGE BRANCHES
BREAK OFF TREES, BUT SHALLOW ROOTED OR DISEASED TREES COULD BE
BLOWN DOWN. LOOSE OBJECTS ARE EASILY BLOWN ABOUT AND BECOME
DANGEROUS PROJECTILES. THESE WINDS AREA ALSO DANGEROUS ON BRIDGES
AND CAUSEWAYS, ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES LIKE TRUCKS
AND BUSES. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE ALSO LIKELY, ESPECIALLY WHERE
POWER LINES ARE EXPOSED ABOVE GROUND.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

THERE IS A 70 TO 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF
COAST EXPERIENCING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS, WINDS OF 39 TO 73
MPH, WITH FAY. THERE IS ABOUT A 7 TO 11 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST EXPERIENCING HURRICANE CONDITIONS, OR
WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER.

...INLAND FLOODING...

VERY LITTLE RAIN HAS FALLEN THROUGH 2 PM IN THE NAPLES AND MARCO
ISLAND AREA. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 12 INCHES POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WHERE
TRAINING OF SPIRAL BANDS OCCURS. THIS RAINFALL CAN EASILY CAUSE
FLOODING OF LOW LYING POORLY DRAINED UNDERPASSES AND DRAINAGE
DITCHES, AS WELL AS PONDING OF RAINFALL RUNOFF IN PARKING LOTS. BE
SURE THAT DEBRIS DOES NOT CLOG DRAINAGE ROUTES IN ORDER TO EASE
RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINS. FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR IN AREAS WHERE
TRAINING OF SQUALLS SETS UP ACROSS THE SAME AREA FOR SEVERAL
HOURS. MOTORISTS SHOULD NEVER DRIVE ACROSS WATER OF AN UNKNOWN
DEPTH, TURN AROUND DONT DROWN. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

...TORNADOES...

MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF FAY
FOR MOST OF THE DAY TODAY AND THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. THIS
QUADRANT IS A FAVORED LOCATION FOR SMALL QUICK STRIKING TORNADOES,
ESPECIALLY IN THE SPIRAL BANDS OF SQUALLS. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN
EFFECT.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 6 PM EDT.

$$

GMZ656-657-676-182215-
/O.CON.KMFL.HU.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20 NM-
GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
305 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

LOCATION UPDATED.
TIMING UPDATED.
WINDS UPDATED.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS:

COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM...
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20
NM...GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING
FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:

TORNADO WATCH.
HURRICANE WARNING.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WITH A HURRICANE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT, MARINERS SHOULD HAVE ALREADY
COMPLETED THEIR PREPARATIONS AS THE SPIRAL BANDS FROM FAY ARE
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. ALL MARINE CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN SAFE PORT
THROUGH TUESDAY.

...WINDS...

SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WINDS IN THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS ARE ALREADY GUSTING TO 40 TO 50 MPH,
AND A GUST TO 33 MPH WAS REPORTED AT 220 PM EDT AT FLAMINGO. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS OF 60 TO 70 MPH WITH GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE IN SQUALLS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON TUESDAY BEFORE
BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY NIGHT. SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY TUESDAY MORNING.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

THERE IS BETTER THAN AN 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
GULF COASTAL WATERS EXPERIENCING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS, WINDS
OF 39 TO 73 MPH, WITH FAY. THERE IS ABOUT A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF
THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COASTAL WATERS EXPERIENCING HURRICANE
CONDITIONS, OR WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER.

...TORNADOES...

MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF FAY
FOR MOST OF THE DAY TODAY AND THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. THIS
QUADRANT IS A FAVORED LOCATION FOR SMALL QUICK STRIKING TORNADOES,
ESPECIALLY IN THE SPIRAL BANDS OF SQUALLS. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN
EFFECT.

...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS...

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS GUSTING NEAR HURRICANE FORCE ARE
POSSIBLE BEGINNING THIS EVENING, WITH CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO
SUBSIDE BY TUESDAY EVENING. SEAS WILL BUILD IN EXCESS OF 10 FEET
OFFSHORE AND FROM 7 TO 10 FEET NEARSHORE, BECOMING EXTREMELY ROUGH
AND CONFUSED. SURF ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY ROUGH AND DANGEROUS TODAY, AND ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY,
AS WINDS INCREASE. MARINERS SHOULD STAY IN SAFE PORT. BEACH
EROSION IS LIKELY AS FAY PASSES BY THE AREA AND STRONG RIP
CURRENTS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 6 PM EDT.

$$

FLZ168-172-173-182215-
/O.CON.KMFL.TR.W.1006.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
305 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

LOCATION UPDATED.
WINDS UPDATED.
RAINFALL REPORTS UPDATED.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS:

COASTAL BROWARD...COASTAL MIAMI DADE...COASTAL PALM BEACH.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:

FLOOD WATCH.
TORNADO WATCH.
TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MAINLAND
SOUTH FLORIDA EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHWEST GULF COAST WHERE A
HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT. ALL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETE. THREE SHELTERS FOR PERSONS WISHING
TO EVACUATE FROM MOBILE HOMES OR HOMES IN LOW LYING AREAS ARE NOW
OPEN FOR MIAMI-DADE COUNTY RESIDENTS.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

LITTLE IMPACT FROM STORM TIDE IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
ATLANTIC COAST GIVEN THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK. WATER LEVELS 1
TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS MAY OCCUR ESPECIALLY AT THE TIMES OF
HIGH TIDE DUE TO ONSHORE WIND FLOW TODAY AND TUESDAY. SHOULD FAY
BECOME A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA, WATER
LEVELS 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SOME
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION MAY OCCUR ESPECIALLY AT
THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE TODAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT HIGH TIDE FOR
THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 11 THIS
EVENING.

...WINDS...

A PEAK WIND GUST TO 61 MPH WAS REPORTED AT FOWEY ROCKS LIGHT
AROUND 120 PM, AND A WIND GUST TO 41 MPH WAS REPORTED AT VIRGINIA
KEY AT 240 PM. SOME HIGHER WIND GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH ARE NOW MOVING
NORTH THROUGH MIAMI-DADE COUNTY AND WILL BE MOVING INTO BROWARD
COUNTY BY 5 PM EDT. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN SQUALLS THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY
MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IF FAY MOVES
DIRECTLY ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA, SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE IN SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

THERE IS ABOUT A 50 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS IN THE METRO MIAMI, FORT LAUDERDALE, AND WEST PALM
BEACH AREAS. THERE IS A LESS THAN 3 PERCENT CHANCE OF HURRICANE
CONDITIONS IN ALL THREE LOCATIONS.

...INLAND FLOODING...

ABOUT AN INCH OF RAIN HAS FALLEN THROUGH 2 PM AT BOTH MIAMI AND
FORT LAUDERDALE HOLLYWOOD INTERNATIONAL AIRPORTS. ALMOST TWO AND A
HALF INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN AT DELRAY BEACH AND TWO AND A
QUARTER INCHES HAS FALLEN AT POMPANO BEACH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4
TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS AS
HIGH AS 12 INCHES POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WHERE TRAINING OF SPIRAL
BANDS OCCURS. THIS RAINFALL CAN EASILY CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING
POORLY DRAINED UNDERPASSES AND DRAINAGE DITCHES, AS WELL AS
PONDING OF RAINFALL RUNOFF IN PARKING LOTS. BE SURE THAT DEBRIS
DOES NOT CLOG DRAINAGE ROUTES IN ORDER TO EASE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY
RAINS. FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR IN AREAS WHERE TRAINING OF SQUALLS
SETS UP ACROSS THE SAME AREA FOR SEVERAL HOURS. MOTORISTS SHOULD
NEVER DRIVE ACROSS WATER OF AN UNKNOWN DEPTH, TURN AROUND DONT
DROWN. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

...TORNADOES...

MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF FAY
FOR MOST OF THE DAY TODAY AND THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. THIS
QUADRANT IS A FAVORED LOCATION FOR SMALL QUICK STRIKING TORNADOES,
ESPECIALLY IN THE SPIRAL BANDS OF SQUALLS. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN
EFFECT.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 6 PM EDT.

$$

FLZ063-066>068-070>074-182215-
/O.CON.KMFL.TI.W.0001.000000T0000Z-080820T1200Z/
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND BROWARD-INLAND COLLIER-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO BROWARD-METRO MIAMI DADE-METRO PALM BEACH-
305 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

...NEW INFORMATION...

LOCATION UPDATED.
WIND EFFECTS UPDATED.
TIMING UPDATED.
RAINFALL UPDATED.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS:

GLADES...HENDRY...INLAND BROWARD...INLAND COLLIER...INLAND
MIAMI DADE...INLAND PALM BEACH...METRO BROWARD...METRO MIAMI
DADE...METRO PALM BEACH.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:

FLOOD WATCH.
TORNADO WATCH.
TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MAINLAND
SOUTH FLORIDA EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST WHERE A
HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT. ALL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETE. SPIRAL BANDS FROM TROPICAL STORM FAY
ARE MOVING THROUGH MUCH OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA NOW PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS. THERE IS STILL A LITTLE TIME FOR RESIDENTS
OF MOBILE HOMES OR LOW LYING POORLY DRAINED AREAS TO FIND SHELTER
WITH FRIENDS OR RELATIVES IN BETTER BUILT OR PROTECTED STRUCTURES.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

LITTLE IMPACT FROM STORM TIDE IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
ATLANTIC COAST AT THIS TIME. WATER LEVELS 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS MAY OCCUR ESPECIALLY AT THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE DUE TO
ONSHORE WIND FLOW TODAY AND TUESDAY. SHOULD FAY BECOME A CATEGORY
ONE HURRICANE IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA, WATER LEVELS 2 TO 3 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA ATLANTIC
COAST WITH MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY AT THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. THE NEXT HIGH TIDE FOR
THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 11 THIS
EVENING.

THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE LEVEL IS NEAR 11.3 FEET, WHICH IS BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SINCE FAY IS EXPECTED TO PASS WEST OF THE
LAKE, SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL BE BLOWING LAKE WATERS FROM
THE SOUTH SHORE TOWARD THE NORTH SHORE, RESULTING IN HIGHER THAN
NORMAL LAKE LEVELS FROM CANAL POINT NORTH TO THE TOWN OF
OKEECHOBEE AND WEST TO LAKEPORT, WHILE BELOW NORMAL LAKE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE BELLE GLADE, SOUTH BAY, AND CLEWISTON
AREAS. IF FAY PASSES DIRECTLY OVER OR EAST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE, THE
WATER LEVELS IN THE LAKE WILL FLUCTUATE DRAMATICALLY DEPENDING ON
THE DIRECTION AND SPEED OF THE WIND.

...WINDS...

WIND GUSTS TO ABOUT 35 MPH ARE NOW MOVING NORTH THROUGH INLAND
MIAMI-DADE COUNTY AND WILL BE SPREADING INTO INLAND BROWARD COUNTY
BY 5 PM EDT. ELSEWHERE ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WIND SPEEDS
ARE GENERALLY 10 TO 20 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30 MPH IN SQUALLS.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH
FLORIDA TODAY, BECOMING 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN
SQUALLS BY THIS EVENING. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN SQUALLS THROUGH TONIGHT AND THROUGH TUESDAY
BEFORE DIMINISHING TUESDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY NIGHT. IF FAY MOVES
ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA DIRECTLY, WINDS WOULD BE HIGHER WITH
GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE BRIEFLY POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SQUALLS.

ACROSS INLAND COLLIER, GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES, WINDS OF 40 TO
50 MPH WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH IN SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE
FROM JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. WIND GUSTS TO
HURRICANE FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SQUALLS. WINDS WILL BE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS GUSTING TO HURRICANE FORCE WOULD BE
CAPABLE OF CAUSING DAMAGE TO CARPORTS, AWNINGS, AND POOL
ENCLOSURES AND SOME DAMAGE TO UNANCHORED MOBILE HOMES. SMALL
BRANCHES BREAK OFF TREES AND LOOSE OBJECTS ARE BLOWN ABOUT. WINDS
IN THIS RANGE BEGIN TO BECOME DANGEROUS ON BRIDGES AND CAUSEWAYS,
ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE
LIKELY, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WITH ABOVE GROUND LINES.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

THERE IS ABOUT A 50 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS IN THE METRO MIAMI, FORT LAUDERDALE, AND WEST PALM
BEACH AREAS. THERE IS A LESS THAN 3 PERCENT CHANCE OF HURRICANE
CONDITIONS IN ALL THREE LOCATIONS.

THERE IS ABOUT A 65 TO 75 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS IN THE LA BELLE, CLEWISTON AND MOORE HAVEN AREAS. THERE
IS ABOUT A 4 TO 5 PERCENT CHANCE OF HURRICANE CONDITIONS IN ALL
THREE LOCATIONS.

...INLAND FLOODING...

ABOUT AN INCH OF RAIN HAS FALLEN THROUGH 2 PM AT BOTH MIAMI AND
FORT LAUDERDALE HOLLYWOOD INTERNATIONAL AIRPORTS. ALMOST TWO AND A
HALF INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN AT DELRAY BEACH AND TWO AND A
QUARTER INCHES HAS FALLEN AT POMPANO BEACH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4
TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS AS
HIGH AS 12 INCHES POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WHERE TRAINING OF SPIRAL
BANDS OCCURS. THIS RAINFALL CAN EASILY CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING
POORLY DRAINED UNDERPASSES AND DRAINAGE DITCHES, AS WELL AS
PONDING OF RAINFALL RUNOFF IN PARKING LOTS. BE SURE THAT DEBRIS
DOES NOT CLOG DRAINAGE ROUTES IN ORDER TO EASE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY
RAINS. FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR IN AREAS WHERE TRAINING OF SQUALLS
SETS UP ACROSS THE SAME AREA FOR SEVERAL HOURS. MOTORISTS SHOULD
NEVER DRIVE ACROSS WATER OF AN UNKNOWN DEPTH, TURN AROUND DONT
DROWN. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

...TORNADOES...

MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF FAY
FOR MOST OF THE DAY TODAY AND THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. THIS
QUADRANT IS A FAVORED LOCATION FOR SMALL QUICK STRIKING
TORNADOES, ESPECIALLY IN THE SPIRAL BANDS OF SQUALLS. A TORNADO
WATCH IS IN EFFECT.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 6 PM EDT.

$$

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-182215-
/O.CON.KMFL.TR.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
BISCAYNE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT
20 NM-LAKE OKEECHOBEE-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM
TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
305 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

LOCATION UPDATED.
WIND SPEEDS UPDATED.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS:

BISCAYNE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN
REEF, FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO
DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM...LAKE OKEECHOBEE...WATERS FROM
DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO THE
TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS...WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET
TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:

TORNADO WATCH.
TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MARINERS SHOULD HAVE ALREADY COMPLETED ALL PRECAUTIONS FOR FAY.
MARINE CRAFT SHOULD STAY IN PORT THROUGH TUESDAY.

...WINDS...

A PEAK WIND GUST TO 61 MPH WAS REPORTED AT FOWEY ROCKS LIGHT
AROUND 120 PM, AND A WIND GUST TO 41 MPH WAS REPORTED AT VIRGINIA
KEY AT 240 PM. SOME HIGHER WIND GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH ARE NOW MOVING
NORTH THROUGH THE MIAMI-DADE COUNTY ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE BROWARD COUNTY ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS BY
6 PM EDT. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY IN SQUALLS THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING
BEFORE DIMINISHING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IF FAY MOVES DIRECTLY ACROSS
MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA, SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITH
GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE IN SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY.

FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...WINDS ARE GENERALLY 10 TO 20 MPH WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 MPH. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE, BECOMING 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN SQUALLS
LATER THIS EVENING. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 35 TO
45 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH GUSTS APPROACHING HURRICANE FORCE BEGINNING
AROUND 3 AM TUESDAY LASTING UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

THERE IS ABOUT A 35 TO 45 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. THERE
IS A LESS THAN 3 PERCENT CHANCE OF HURRICANE CONDITIONS IN THE
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

THERE IS ABOUT A 60 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THERE IS ABOUT A 4 PERCENT CHANCE
OF HURRICANE CONDITIONS FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

...TORNADOES...

THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE
WILL BE IN A FAVORED LOCATION FOR SMALL QUICK STRIKING
WATERSPOUTS ESPECIALLY IN THE SPIRAL BANDS OF SQUALLS. A TORNADO
WATCH IS IN EFFECT.

...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS...

SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NOW MOVING INTO THE
MIAMI-DADE COUNTY COASTAL WATERS AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH THIS
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING FROM THE SOUTH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. IF FAY MOVES DIRECTLY ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA,
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE
WOULD BE POSSIBLE. SEAS WILL BE BUILDING TO AS HIGH AS 7 TO 9 FEET
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY ROUGH SURF AND
POSSIBLY MINOR BEACH EROSION. THE RISK OF STRONG DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS WILL BE HIGH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST
PARTICULARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY.

FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE, WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE TODAY,
BECOMING 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN SQUALLS THIS
EVENING. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH ARE
LIKELY WITH GUSTS APPROACHING HURRICANE FORCE BEGINNING AROUND 3
AM TUESDAY LASTING UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS FROM MID MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON TUESDAY. SINCE FAY IS
EXPECTED TO PASS WEST OF THE LAKE, SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL
BE BLOWING LAKE WATERS FROM THE SOUTH SHORE TOWARD THE NORTH
SHORE, RESULTING IN HIGHER THAN NORMAL LAKE LEVELS FROM CANAL
POINT NORTH TO THE TOWN OF OKEECHOBEE AND WEST TO LAKEPORT, WHILE
BELOW NORMAL LAKE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE BELLE GLADE, SOUTH
BAY AND CLEWISTON AREAS. IF FAY PASSES DIRECTLY OVER OR EAST OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE, THE WATER LEVELS IN THE LAKE WILL FLUCTUATE
DRAMATICALLY DEPENDING ON THE DIRECTION AND SPEED OF THE WIND.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 6 PM EDT.

$$






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