[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KMLB 181030
HLSMLB

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM FAY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
630 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST FROM SEBASTIAN
INLET TO JUPITER INLET...

...TROPICAL STORM FAY OVER CUBA AND CONTINUING TOWARD THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO
JUPITER INLET. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE HAS
BEEN UPGRADED TO A WARNING. A TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH CONTINUES
FOR OKEECHOBEE AND OSCEOLA COUNTIES.

A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OKEECHOBEE...SAINT LUCIE AND
MARTIN COUNTIES.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 500 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED OVER
CUBA NEAR LATITUDE 22.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.9 WEST. THIS POSITION
IS ABOUT 155 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST AND ABOUT 410
MILES SOUTH OF ORLANDO.

FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH IS TUESDAY AND FAY IS EXPECTED TO NORTH UP THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE...AND FAY SHOULD BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE
REACHING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

FLZ054-059-064-191030-
/O.CON.KMLB.TR.A.1006.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
INDIAN RIVER-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-
630 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK FOR TROPICAL STORM FAY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WITH A LITTLE EARLIER ARRIVAL. A FURTHER
EASTWARD ADJUSTMENT MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO
JUPITER INLET AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OKEECHOBEE...SAINT LUCIE AND
MARTIN COUNTIES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. THE WATCH MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED NORTHWARD LATER TODAY.

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN
INDIAN RIVER...SAINT LUCIE AND MARTIN COUNTIES.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE DEFINED AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. IT IS
RECOMMENDED THAT YOU PREPARE YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS AND REVIEW YOUR
EVACUATION PLAN. LISTEN FREQUENTLY TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR OTHER
LOCAL NEWS MEDIA...FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS EVOLVING
TROPICAL WEATHER THREAT.

RESIDENTS SHOULD FINALIZE PLANNING FOR HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS
AND BE READY TO PUT THEIR PLANS INTO MOTION LATER TODAY IF THE WATCH
IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

WHEN MAKING DECISIONS...DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.
ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY BE MADE TO THE FORECAST TRACK AS THE STORM
APPROACHES AND IMPACTS CAN OCCUR FAR FROM THE CENTER OF THE STORM.
ALWAYS HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AND COMPLY WITH ANY ORDERS
THAT ARE ISSUED.

FINALIZE PREPAREDNESS PLANS AND REPLENISH STORM PROVISIONS SUCH
AS...BATTERIES FOR RADIOS AND FLASHLIGHTS...DRINKING WATER...CANNED
GOODS OR DRIED FOOD...FIRST AID SUPPLIES...BABY SUPPLIES...AND
PRESCRIPTION MEDICINES. GAS UP YOUR VEHICLES AND HAVE SOME EXTRA
FUEL ON HAND FOR GENERATORS AND CHAIN SAWS IF NEEDED. IT IS ALSO
BEST TO HAVE SOME EXTRA CASH AS CREDIT CARDS MAY NOT BE AN OPTION IF
ELECTRIC POWER GOES OUT. KEEP YOUR CELL PHONE WELL CHARGED BEFORE
THE STORM ARRIVES.

PROTECT WINDOWS AND DOORS AGAINST TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS SHOULD BE BROUGHT INDOORS OR
TIED DOWN.

MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS SHOULD CONSIDER WHETHER TO TEMPORARILY
EVACUATE TO MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER UNTIL THE HIGH WIND AND
TORNADO THREAT PASSES. BE READY TO LEAVE IF A TROPICAL STORM OR
HURRICANE WARNING IS ISSUED...OR IF YOU ARE DIRECTED TO DO SO BY
LOCAL OFFICIALS.

...WINDS...
GIVEN THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALONG WITH INHERENT FORECAST
UNCERTAINTIES IN CYCLONE TRACK AND INTENSITY...THERE IS A LIMITED
THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM HIGH WINDS FOR EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA...INCLUDING INDIAN RIVER...ST. LUCIE AND MARTIN COUNTIES.

WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE IN THE WATCH AREA TUESDAY
MORNING...BECOMING STRONGEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR WINDS TO CAUSE DAMAGE TO CARPORTS...
AWNINGS...AND POOL ENCLOSURES. SOME DAMAGE MAY ALSO OCCUR TO
UNANCHORED MOBILE HOMES. SMALL BRANCHES MAY BREAK OFF TREES...AND
LOOSE OBJECTS MAY BE BLOWN ABOUT. WINDS MAY BECOME DANGEROUS ON
BRIDGES...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES...FORCING CLOSURES.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
AT THIS TIME...THERE IS ABOUT A 45 TO 55 PERCENT CHANCE FOR TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS WITH FAY. THESE PROBABILITIES HAVE INCREASED SINCE
SUNDAY.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...ASSUMING THE CURRENT FORECAST AND A LAKE
LEVEL NEAR 11.3 FEET...NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE
IMPACT IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...LARGE FLUCTUATIONS IN LAKE LEVEL ARE
EXPECTED AS THE WINDS SHIFT IN DIRECTION AND SPEED WITH THE
PASSING STORM.

...INLAND FLOODING...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR SOUTHERN FLORIDA...INCLUDING OKEECHOBEE...SAINT LUCIE AND MARTIN
COUNTIES. THE FLOOD WATCH MAY BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD LATER TODAY.
THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE
IMMEDIATE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER TODAY AS
THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH FAY CONTINUES TO SURGE NORTHWARD.
RAINBANDS DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH FAY ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN
IMPACTING THE AREA TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY...BECOMING MORE FREQUENT
AND HEAVIER LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

...TORNADOES...
MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL BE LOCATED IN THE RIGHT FRONT
QUADRANT OF FAY. HISTORICALLY...THIS QUADRANT IS THE FAVORED AREA
FOR TORNADOES AND TORNADIC WATERSPOUTS...ESPECIALLY WITHIN OUTER
RAINBANDS. THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS WILL INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON AS OUTER RAINBANDS APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THE
HIGHEST THREAT MAY OCCUR TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. LISTEN FOR
POSSIBLE WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MELBOURNE AROUND 12 NOON...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...SEE
THE MELBOURNE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV
AND THEN CLICK ON EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

$$

AMZ555-575-191030-
/O.CON.KMLB.TR.A.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
630 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
MARINERS SHOULD COMPLETE PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS TODAY AND OTHERWISE
NOT VENTURE FAR FROM PORT.

...WINDS...
AS THE CIRCULATION OF FAY APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH...WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE TUESDAY...POSSIBLY REACHING TROPICAL STORM
FORCE...AT LEAST IN GUSTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
GIVEN THAT FAY WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE INLAND
DIRECTION...LITTLE IMPACT FROM STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IS
EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...IF FAY STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE OR SHIFTS MORE
EASTWARD...THEN THERE MAY BE A VERY LOW THREAT DURING THE PERIODS
OF HIGH TIDE AND ONSHORE WINDS. SUBTLE CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST WOULD PROMPT HEIGHTS OF 2 FEET OR LESS. EITHER WAY...SURF
CONDITIONS MAY BECOME ROUGH WITH SOME BEACH EROSION TAKING PLACE.
RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM.

...TORNADOES...
MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL BE LOCATED IN THE RIGHT FRONT
QUADRANT OF FAY. HISTORICALLY...THIS QUADRANT IS THE FAVORED AREA
FOR TORNADOES AND TORNADIC WATERSPOUTS...ESPECIALLY WITHIN OUTER
RAINBANDS. THE THREAT FOR WATERSPOUTS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
AS OUTER RAINBANDS APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THE HIGHEST THREAT
MAY OCCUR TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MELBOURNE AROUND 12 NOON...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

$$

FLZ053-058-191030-
/O.CON.KMLB.TI.A.0001.000000T0000Z-080820T0000Z/
OSCEOLA-OKEECHOBEE-
630 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING...

...NEW INFORMATION...
THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK FOR TROPICAL STORM FAY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WITH A LITTLE EARLIER ARRIVAL. A FURTHER
EASTWARD ADJUSTMENT MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OKEECHOBEE...SAINT LUCIE AND
MARTIN COUNTIES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN
OKEECHOBEE AND OSCEOLA COUNTIES.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE DEFINED AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. IT IS
RECOMMENDED THAT YOU PREPARE YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS AND REVIEW YOUR
EVACUATION PLAN. LISTEN FREQUENTLY TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR OTHER
LOCAL NEWS MEDIA...FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS EVOLVING
TROPICAL WEATHER THREAT.

RESIDENTS SHOULD FINALIZE PLANNING FOR HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS
AND BE READY TO PUT THEIR PLANS INTO MOTION LATER TODAY IF THE WATCH
IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

WHEN MAKING DECISIONS...DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.
ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY BE MADE TO THE FORECAST TRACK AS THE STORM
APPROACHES AND IMPACTS CAN OCCUR FAR FROM THE CENTER OF THE STORM.
ALWAYS HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AND COMPLY WITH ANY ORDERS
THAT ARE ISSUED.

FINALIZE PREPAREDNESS PLANS AND REPLENISH STORM PROVISIONS SUCH
AS...BATTERIES FOR RADIOS AND FLASHLIGHTS...DRINKING WATER...CANNED
GOODS OR DRIED FOOD...FIRST AID SUPPLIES...BABY SUPPLIES...AND
PRESCRIPTION MEDICINES. GAS UP YOUR VEHICLES AND HAVE SOME EXTRA
FUEL ON HAND FOR GENERATORS AND CHAIN SAWS IF NEEDED. IT IS ALSO
BEST TO HAVE SOME EXTRA CASH AS CREDIT CARDS MAY NOT BE AN OPTION IF
ELECTRIC POWER GOES OUT. KEEP YOUR CELL PHONE WELL CHARGED BEFORE
THE STORM ARRIVES.

PROTECT WINDOWS AND DOORS AGAINST TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS SHOULD BE BROUGHT INDOORS OR
TIED DOWN.

MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS SHOULD CONSIDER WHETHER TO TEMPORARILY
EVACUATE TO MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER UNTIL THE HIGH WIND AND
TORNADO THREAT PASSES. BE READY TO LEAVE IF A TROPICAL STORM OR
HURRICANE WARNING IS ISSUED...OR IF YOU ARE DIRECTED TO DO SO BY
LOCAL OFFICIALS.

...WINDS...
GIVEN THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALONG WITH INHERENT FORECAST
UNCERTAINTIES IN CYCLONE TRACK AND INTENSITY...THERE IS A LIMITED
THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM HIGH WINDS FOR EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA...ESPECIALLY FOR OSCEOLA AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES.

WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE IN OKEECHOBEE AND OSCEOLA COUNTIES
TUESDAY MORNING...BECOMING STRONGEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR WINDS TO CAUSE DAMAGE TO CARPORTS...
AWNINGS...AND POOL ENCLOSURES. SOME DAMAGE MAY ALSO OCCUR TO
UNANCHORED MOBILE HOMES. SMALL BRANCHES MAY BREAK OFF TREES...AND
LOOSE OBJECTS MAY BE BLOWN ABOUT. WINDS MAY BECOME DANGEROUS ON
BRIDGES...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES...FORCING CLOSURES.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
AT THIS TIME...THERE IS ABOUT A 50 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE FOR TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS WITH FAY. THESE PROBABILITIES HAVE INCREASED SINCE
SUNDAY.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...ASSUMING THE CURRENT FORECAST AND A LAKE
LEVEL NEAR 11.3 FEET...NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE
IMPACT IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...LARGE FLUCTUATIONS IN LAKE LEVEL ARE
EXPECTED AS THE WINDS SHIFT IN DIRECTION AND SPEED WITH THE
PASSING STORM.

...INLAND FLOODING...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR SOUTHERN FLORIDA...INCLUDING OKEECHOBEE...SAINT LUCIE AND MARTIN
COUNTIES. THE FLOOD WATCH MAY BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD LATER TODAY.
THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE
IMMEDIATE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER TODAY AS
THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH FAY CONTINUES TO SURGE NORTHWARD.
RAINBANDS DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH FAY ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN
IMPACTING THE AREA TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY...BECOMING MORE FREQUENT
AND HEAVIER LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

...TORNADOES...
MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL BE LOCATED IN THE RIGHT FRONT
QUADRANT OF FAY. HISTORICALLY...THIS QUADRANT IS THE FAVORED AREA
FOR TORNADOES AND TORNADIC WATERSPOUTS...ESPECIALLY WITHIN OUTER
RAINBANDS. THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS WILL INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON AS OUTER RAINBANDS APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THE
HIGHEST THREAT MAY OCCUR TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. LISTEN FOR
POSSIBLE WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MELBOURNE AROUND 12 NOON...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...SEE
THE MELBOURNE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV
AND THEN CLICK ON EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

$$

AMZ550-552-570-572-FLZ041-044>047-141-144-147-191030-
/O.CON.KMLB.HU.S.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-
SOUTHERN BREVARD-COASTAL VOLUSIA-SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
630 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...TROPICAL STORM FAY CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...
...WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF SOUTH AND WEST FLORIDA...

...NEW INFORMATION...
THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK FOR TROPICAL STORM FAY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WITH A LITTLE EARLIER ARRIVAL. A FURTHER
EASTWARD ADJUSTMENT MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING AND MAY BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD LATER TODAY.

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN
BREVARD...VOLUSIA...LAKE...ORANGE...AND SEMINOLE COUNTIES.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
IN CASE ADDITIONAL WATCHES ARE NEEDED...THIS IS A GOOD TIME REVIEW
PREPAREDNESS PLANS AND REPLENISH STORM PROVISIONS SUCH AS...BATTERIES
FOR RADIOS AND FLASHLIGHTS... DRINKING WATER...CANNED GOODS OR
DRIED FOOD... FIRST AID SUPPLIES...BABY SUPPLIES...AND
PRESCRIPTION MEDICINES.

RESIDENTS SHOULD FOLLOW FORECAST UPDATES CLOSELY TODAY AS ANY
SHIFT OF THE STORM TRACK WILL CHANGE LOCAL WEATHER IMPACTS.

...WINDS...
THE THREAT IS INCREASING FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PENINSULA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE ISSUED LATER THIS
MORNING OR AFTERNOON.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
AT THIS TIME...THERE IS A 50 TO 55 PERCENT CHANCE FOR TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS FOR ORANGE...SEMINOLE...LAKE...AND VOLUSIA
COUNTIES.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
GIVEN THAT FAY WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE INLAND
DIRECTION...LITTLE IMPACT FROM STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IS
EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...IF FAY STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE OR SHIFTS A BIT MORE
EASTWARD...THEN THERE MAY BE A VERY LOW BUT NOTEWORTHY THREAT
DURING THE PERIODS OF HIGH TIDE AND ONSHORE WINDS. SUBTLE CHANGES
TO THE CURRENT FORECAST WOULD PROMPT HEIGHTS OF 2 FEET OR LESS.
EITHER WAY...SURF CONDITIONS MAY BECOME ROUGH WITH SOME BEACH
EROSION TAKING PLACE. RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM.

...INLAND FLOODING...
ASSUMING THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH FAY. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. A FLOOD WATCH IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
AND MAY BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD LATER TODAY.

...TORNADOES...
MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL BE LOCATED IN THE RIGHT FRONT
QUADRANT OF FAY. STATISTICALLY...THIS QUADRANT IS THE FAVORED AREA
FOR TORNADOES AND TORNADIC WATERSPOUTS...ESPECIALLY WITHIN OUTER
RAINBANDS. THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS WILL INCREASE
MONDAY AS THE OUTER REACHES OF FAY APPROACH THE AREA. LISTEN FOR
POSSIBLE WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

...MARINE...
MARINERS ARE URGED TO CHECK THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
FOR THE LATEST ON MARINE WINDS AND SEAS. INTERESTS AT AREA
PORTS...MARINAS...AND DOCKS SHOULD BE READY TO ACT IF A WATCH OR
WARNING IS ISSUED ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MELBOURNE AROUND 6 AM EDT...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...SEE
THE MELBOURNE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV
AND THEN CLICK ON EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

$$

This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net