[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KTBW 180934
HLSTBW

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM FAY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
534 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...TROPICAL STORM FAY CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTH NORTHWEST OVER
CUBA...

.AT 5 AM EDT...TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
22.54 DEGREES NORTH...80.9 DEGREES WEST OR ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHEAST OF FORT MYERS...AND ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
TAMPA. FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1003 MB...OR 29.62 INCHES. FAY IS
FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AND COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL.

FLZ050-051-055-060>062-065-GMZ830-853-856-873-876-181745-
/O.CON.KTBW.HU.A.1006.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-MANATEE-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
TAMPA BAY WATERS-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLEARWATER...ST. PETERSBURG...BRANDON...
TAMPA...BRADENTON...SARASOTA...VENICE...ARCADIA...
PORT CHARLOTTE...PUNTA GORDA...CAPE CORAL...FORT MYERS
534 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

NO UPDATES/CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM BONITA BEACH IN LEE
COUNTY
TO TARPON SPRINGS IN PINELLAS COUNTY.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PEOPLE LOCATED IN THE WATCH AREA ARE ENCOURAGED TO FREQUENTLY
MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS MEDIA...FOR THE
LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS EVOLVING SITUATION WITH TROPICAL STORM
FAY. LISTEN CLOSELY FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

FOR DETAILED PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS CHECK THE LATEST
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT LINKED AT THE TOP OF THE NWS TAMPA
BAY HOME PAGE ( HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAMPABAY ).

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK THE MAXIMUM EXPECTED STORM SURGE IS
3 TO 5 FEET ALONG THE LEE AND CHARLOTTE COUNTY COASTS INCLUDING
THE UPPER PORTIONS OF CHARLOTTE HARBOR DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH... SARASOTA
AND MANATEE COUNTY COAST...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY...A SURGE OF 2 TO 4
FEET IS POSSIBLE IF FAY STAYS OFFSHORE TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.
ASTRONOMICAL TIDE LEVELS MUST BE ADDED TO THESE SURGE VALUES TO
DETERMINE TOTAL STORM TIDE LEVELS.

...WINDS...

MAXIMUM WINDS OF 60 TO 80 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS MAY AFFECT
THE WATCH AREA TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK THERE IS A 40 TO 60 PERCENT
CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...
BEING EXPERIENCED ACROSS THE WATCH AREA BEGINNING EARLY MONDAY MORNING
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS ALSO A 5 TO 10 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS...WINDS OF 74 MPH OR HIGHER...WILL
AFFECT THE AREA.

...INLAND FLOODING...

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT STORM TRACK...A FLOOD
WATCH MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
ON MONDAY.

...TORNADOES...

THE PRIMARY AREA FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT IN TROPICAL SYSTEMS IS
THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE STORM. AS FAY MOVES NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THE TORNADO
THREAT FOR THE REGION WILL BE MODERATE TO HIGH.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1130 AM EDT.

$$

FLZ052-056-057-181745-
/O.CON.KTBW.HI.A.0001.000000T0000Z-080820T0000Z/
POLK-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAKELAND...WINTER HAVEN...WAUCHULA...
SEBRING...AVON PARK
534 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...HURRICANE WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING...

...NEW INFORMATION...

NO UPDATES/CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

A HURRICANE WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR POLK...HARDEE AND
HIGHLANDS COUNTIES.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PEOPLE LOCATED IN THE WATCH AREA ARE ENCOURAGED TO FREQUENTLY
MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS MEDIA...FOR THE
LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS EVOLVING SITUATION WITH TROPICAL STORM
FAY. LISTEN CLOSELY FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

FOR DETAILED PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS CHECK THE LATEST
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT LINKED AT THE TOP OF THE NWS TAMPA
BAY HOME PAGE ( HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAMPABAY ).

...WINDS...

MAXIMUM WINDS OF 55 TO 75 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS MAY AFFECT
THE WATCH AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...BASED ON
THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY BETWEEN 45 AND 55 MPH WITH GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK THERE IS A 35 TO 55 PERCENT
CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...
BEING EXPERIENCED ACROSS THE WATCH AREA BEGINNING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS ALSO A 3 TO 7 PERCENT
CHANCE THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS...WINDS OF 74 MPH OR HIGHER...WILL
AFFECT THE AREA.

...INLAND FLOODING...

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT STORM TRACK...A FLOOD WATCH MAY
NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ON
MONDAY.

...TORNADOES...

THE PRIMARY AREA FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT IN TROPICAL SYSTEMS IS
THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE STORM. AS FAY MOVES NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THE TORNADO
THREAT FOR THE REGION WILL BE MODERATE TO HIGH.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1130 AM EDT.

$$

FLZ039-042-043-048-049-GMZ850-870-181745-
/O.CON.KTBW.HU.S.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CEDAR KEY...CHIEFLAND...CRYSTAL RIVER...
INVERNESS...BUSHNELL...THE VILLAGES...BROOKSVILLE...SPRING HILL...
NEW PORT RICHEY...ZEPHYRHILLS
534 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...NEW INFORMATION...

ALTHOUGH WATCHES HAVE NOT BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AREA...RESIDENTS
AND MARINERS SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF ANY NEARING HAZARDS
ASSOCIATED
WITH TROPICAL STORM FAY.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE ENCOURAGED TO FREQUENTLY MONITOR NOAA
WEATHER RADIO...OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS MEDIA...FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION ON THIS EVOLVING SITUATION WITH TROPICAL STORM FAY.
LISTEN CLOSELY FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

FOR DETAILED PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS CHECK THE LATEST
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT LINKED AT THE TOP OF THE NWS TAMPA
BAY HOME PAGE ( HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAMPABAY ).

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

IF FAY REMAINS OFFSHORE OF THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK THE MAXIMUM
EXPECTED STORM SURGE WOULD BE POSSIBLY 3 TO 5 FEET ALONG THE
COAST FROM PASCO TO LEVY COUNTY DURING WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ASTRONOMICAL TIDE LEVELS MUST BE ADDED TO THESE SURGE VALUES TO
DETERMINE TOTAL STORM TIDE LEVELS.

...WINDS...

MAXIMUM WINDS OF 60 TO 75 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS COULD AFFECT
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK THERE IS A 30 TO 50 PERCENT
CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...
BEING EXPERIENCED ACROSS THE WATCH AREA BEGINNING LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS ALSO A 3 TO 7 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS...WINDS OF 74 MPH OR HIGHER...WILL
AFFECT THE AREA.

...INLAND FLOODING...

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT STORM TRACK...A FLOOD
WATCH MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA
ON MONDAY.

...TORNADOES...

THE PRIMARY AREA FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT IN TROPICAL SYSTEMS IS
THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE STORM. AS FAY MOVES NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING THE TORNADO
THREAT FOR THE REGION WILL BE MODERATE TO HIGH.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1130 AM EDT.

$$






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