[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT31 KNHC 180240
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
1100 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008

...FAY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...SOON TO MOVE OVER CUBA...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF
TO KEY WEST...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY...AND
ALONG THE FLORIDA MAINLAND FROM CARD SOUND BRIDGE WESTWARD TO
TARPON SPRINGS.  A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM THE PROVINCES OF
LA HABANA AND CIUDAD DE LA HABANA EASTWARD TO SANCTI SPIRITUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF CUBA FROM
CAMAGUEY WESTWARD.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CAYMAN BRAC AND
LITTLE CAYMAN.

AT  11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS EXTENDED
EASTWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA KEYS TO OCEAN REEF.  A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF
TO KEY WEST...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY.  A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF OCEAN REEF NORTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET...AND
FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF FAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.6 WEST OR ABOUT 170
MILES...275 KM...SOUTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA AND ABOUT 235 MILES...375
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 1 TO 2 DAYS.  ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...FAY IS EXPECTED TO CROSS WESTERN CUBA EARLY ON
MONDAY AND MOVE NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS MONDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER CROSSES
CUBA...AND FAY COULD BE APPROACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT
NEARS THE FLORIDA KEYS MONDAY NIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

STORM TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST OF CUBA IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WINDS.  TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FT ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS IN THE WARNING AREA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER MUCH OF CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12
INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES.  RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER GRAND CAYMAN AND OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.  HEAVY RAIN MAY
BEGIN TO AFFECT THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY.  RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...21.4 N...80.6 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS



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