[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT31 KNHC 172345
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   9A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008

...FAY MOVING SLOWER...HAS NOT STRENGTHENED YET...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM SOUTH OF
OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA
BAY...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA MAINLAND FROM CARD SOUND BRIDGE
WESTWARD TO TARPON SPRINGS.  A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM THE PROVINCES OF
LA HABANA AND CIUDAD DE LA HABANA EASTWARD TO SANCTI SPIRITUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF CUBA FROM
CAMAGUEY WESTWARD.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CAYMAN BRAC AND
LITTLE CAYMAN.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA
BAY.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM OCEAN REEF NORTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET...AND FOR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF FAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.3 WEST OR ABOUT 200
MILES...330 KM...SOUTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA AND ABOUT 265 MILES...430
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

FAY HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY AND SOMEWHAT ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR.  A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED MONDAY
OR MONDAY NIGHT.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...FAY IS EXPECTED CROSS
WESTERN CUBA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING...AND MOVE NEAR
THE FLORIDA KEYS MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND FAY COULD BE APPROACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT
REACHES WESTERN CUBA TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY AND WHEN IT APPROACHES
THE FLORIDA KEYS LATE MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

STORM TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST OF CUBA IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WINDS.  TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FT ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS IN THE WARNING AREA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY OVER THE
FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER MUCH OF CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12
INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES.  RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER GRAND CAYMAN AND OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.  HEAVY RAIN MAY
BEGIN TO AFFECT THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY.  RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA.

REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...21.0 N...80.3 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS



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