[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171800
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY AT 17/1500 UTC IS NEAR 20.5N
78.6W OR ABOUT 75 MILES...125 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
AND ABOUT 350 MILES...560 KM...SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.
FAY IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER MUCH OF CUBA...JAMAICA...AND
THE NORTHERN CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. PRESENTLY FAY HAS ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
TO THE SRN BAHAMAS FROM 16N-24N BETWEEN 74W-84W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING
WEST 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-15N
BETWEEN 30W-34W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 21N52W
TO 14N58W 6N61W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE W OF THE WAVE AXIS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM
12N-15N BETWEEN 59W-63W.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 15N17W 11N33W 7N40W 6N53W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 20W-27W...
AND FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 30W-35W

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A STATIONARY FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS FROM S GEORGIA TO S
LOUISIANA TO SE TEXAS ALONG 31N81W 31N91W 28N97W. PREFRONTAL
ACTIVITY IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION OVER THE N GULF OF MEXICO FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN
87W-97W. A WEAK 1016 MB HIGH IS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
27N86W. ELSEWHERE...AN OUTER FEEDER BAND FROM FAY IS PRODUCING
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN 80W-83W. FURTHER W...MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE SW GULF AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.  5-10
KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE GOING AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 26N105W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING E TO
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N90W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXCEPT OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. EXPECT CONTINUED FRONTAL
ACTIVITY TO PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER THE N GULF STATES N OF 26N
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE
FLORIDA AND THE E GULF E OF 86W DUE TO FAY.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
T.S. FAY IS ALONG THE S COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA AND A TROPICAL
WAVE IS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES. SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...
MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADEWINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE
BASIN. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED ABOVE...SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER PANAMA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN
75W-83W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER W
CUBA W OF FAY NEAR 22N85W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW IS
NOTED OVER FAY. EXPECT...CONVECTION OVER THE W CARIBBEAN DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO FAY. ALSO EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER
THE E CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
35N44W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W TOWARDS BERMUDA.
PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY IS PRODUCING SCATTERED WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 28N BETWEEN
70W-75W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG
27N51W 24N55W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60
NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 27N58W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 25N44W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS W OF THE
CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 28N20W. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVES AND T.S.
FAY TO BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER PRODUCERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA


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