[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 171154
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY AT 17/1200 UTC IS NEAR 20.0N
78.0W OR ABOUT 100 MILES...160 KM...SOUTH OF CAMAGUEY CUBA AND
ABOUT 395 MILES...635 KM...SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA. FAY IS
MOVING WEST 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003
MB. A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND A TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY LATE MONDAY. FAY IS FORECAST TO
MOVE VERY NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA TODAY...CROSS CENTRAL
CUBA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND EMERGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO OR THE FLORIDA STRAITS ON MONDAY. SOME STRENGTHENING
IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND FAY MAY BE APPROACHING
HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT REACHES CENTRAL CUBA. FAY IS EXPECTED
TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES THE FLORIDA
KEYS...EVEN THOUGH IT IS LIKELY THAT IT MAY WEAKEN WHILE
CROSSING CUBA. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
105 MILES/165 KM FROM THE CENTER. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
FROM FAY MAY BE FROM OF 4 TO 8 INCHES IN MUCH OF
CUBA...JAMAICA...AND THE NORTHERN CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER GRAND CAYMAN
AND OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. RAINS WILL
DIMINISH GRADUALLY IN HAITI TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FAY IS
SPREADING NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N TO
21N BETWEEN SOUTHWESTERN HAITI AND 81W...INCLUDING ACROSS
JAMAICA AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. LINGERING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE ON TOP OF THE BAHAMAS...WELL TO
THE NORTH OF THE CENTER OF T.S. FAY...AS FAR AWAY AS 28N BETWEEN
69W AND 80W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W/31W SOUTH OF 17N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 29W AND 34W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23N54W TO 15N55W 9N56W.
THIS WAVE IS MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N TO 23N BETWEEN 49W AND 51W.

...THE ITCZ...
12N18W 6N30W 4N39W 5N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 12N21W 8N26W 6N33W 7N46W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTH CENTRAL INTERIOR MEXICO
TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...AND FINALLY NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. WEAKENING SHOWERS
IN THE CENTRAL GULF WATER WERE RELATED TO A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH.
THE AREA SOUTHEAST OF 28N83W 25N88W 23N91W IS FEELING THE
EFFECTS OF CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 20N82W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TROPICAL STORM FAY IS SPREADING NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N TO 21N BETWEEN SOUTHWESTERN HAITI AND
81W...INCLUDING ACROSS JAMAICA AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A WESTERN CUBA
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NEAR AREAS OF
WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION/TROUGHS SOUTH OF 21N IN MEXICO.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 55W/56W FROM 24N TO 28N. THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM SIX HOURS AGO...NOW ALONG 50W FROM 21N
TO 23N...APPEARS TO BE MORE RELATED TO THE 32N52W 16N60W TROUGH
THAN TO THE NEARBY TROPICAL WAVE. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS ALONG THE LINE FROM 32N52W TO A 27N58W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...TO 19N59W TO 16N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
ELSEWHERE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 28N21W
JUST WEST OF THE CANARY ISLANDS TO A SMALLER CYCLONIC CENTER
NEAR 20N26W TO ANOTHER SMALL CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 16N34W TO
15N44W TO 10N54W.

$$
MT




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