[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT31 KNHC 171150
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   7A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
800 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008

...CENTER OF FAY NEAR CABO CRUZ IN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA......WARNINGS
AND WATCHES EXTENDED WESTWARD IN CUBA...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM SOUTH OF
OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA
BAY...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA MAINLAND FROM CARD SOUND BRIDGE
WESTWARD TO BONITA BEACH.  A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM OCEAN REEF NORTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET...AND FOR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN
36 HOURS.

AT 8 AT EDT...1200 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS EXTENDED THE
HURRICANE WATCH TO THE PROVINCES OF LA HABANA AND CIUDAD LA HABANA.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA
HABANA AND CIUDAD LA HABANA EASTWARD TO SANCTI SPIRITUS.

AT 8 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS EXTENDED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING WESTWARD TO INCLUDE THE PROVINCES OF
CIENFUEGOS...VILLA CLARA...MATANZAS...LA HABANA...AND CIUDAD LA
HABANA.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CUBA
FROM THE PROVINCES OF LA HABANA AND CIUDAD LA HABAMA EASTWARD.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CAYMAN BRAC AND
LITTLE CAYMAN.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS...JAMAICA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF FAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.0 WEST OR ABOUT
100 MILES...160 KM...SOUTH OF CAMAGUEY CUBA AND ABOUT 395 MILES...
635 KM...SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
EXPECTED BY LATE MONDAY. FAY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY NEAR THE
SOUTH COAST OF CUBA TODAY...CROSS CENTRAL CUBA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...
AND EMERGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OR THE FLORIDA
STRAITS ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
FAY COULD BE APPROACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT REACHES CENTRAL
CUBA.  ALTHOUGH SOME WEAKENING IS LIKELY AS FAY CROSSES CUBA...FAY
IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES THE
FLORIDA KEYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER MUCH OF CUBA...JAMAICA...AND THE NORTHERN CAYMAN
ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER GRAND
CAYMAN AND OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. RAINS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER HAITI TODAY.

REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...20.0 N...78.0 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/BROWN



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