[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KKEY 171049 CCA
HLSKEY

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM FAY LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
639 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008

CORRECTED TIDE INFORMATION FOR KEY WEST AND MARATHON

...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS...

.AT 5 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.3 WEST OR ABOUT 445 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST.

FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. A TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST EXPECTED BY LATE
MONDAY. FAY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA
TODAY...CROSS CENTRAL CUBA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND EMERGE INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OR THE FLORIDA STRAITS ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND FAY COULD BE
APPROACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT REACHES CENTRAL CUBA. ALTHOUGH
SOME WEAKENING IS LIKELY AS FAY CROSSES CUBA...FAY IS EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES THE FLORIDA KEYS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB OR 29.62 INCHES.

GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-171315-
/O.COR.KKEY.HU.A.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
FLORIDA BAY-GULF SIDE OF THE LOWER KEYS OUT 20 NM-
GULF WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY OUT 20 NM-
CRAIG KEY TO THE WEST END OF THE 7 MILE BRIDGE OUT 20 NM-
WEST END OF THE 7 MILE BRIDGE TO KEY WEST OUT 20 NM-
OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
CRAIG KEY TO THE WEST END OF THE 7 MILE BRIDGE 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
WEST END OF THE 7 MILE BRIDGE TO KEY WEST 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
KEY WEST TO 20 NM WEST OF DRY TORTUGAS OUT 60 NM-
639 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008

...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT DETAILS SPECIFIC PREPAREDNESS AND SAFETY ACTIONS
TO BE TAKEN IN THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY CONCERNING THE
EFFECTS OF TROPICAL STORM FAY.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...FROM
OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. THIS INCLUDES ALL ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS...INCLUDING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 74 MPH OR
GREATER...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36
HOURS.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS PLAN TO BEGIN ISSUING
PROTECTIVE ACTIONS THIS MORNING. THIS IS LIKELY TO INCLUDE A
MANDATORY VISITOR EVACUATION FOR ALL THE KEYS...BEGINNING AT 800 AM
THIS MORNING. RESIDENTS IN LOW-LYING AREAS AND MOBILE HOMES ARE ALSO
LIKELY TO BE MANDATED TO SEEK SAFE SHELTER. AT THIS TIME...MONROE
COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ARE NOT LIKELY TO ORDER A
GENERAL RESIDENT EVACUATION. KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT PLANS TO
CONTINUE OPERATIONS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. HIGH-PROFILE
VEHICLES...SUCH AS RECREATIONAL VEHICLES AND TRUCKS...SHOULD BE OUT
OF THE FLORIDA KEYS PRIOR TO MIDDAY MONDAY. THE KEY WEST EMERGENCY
OPERATIONS CENTER RUMOR CONTROL HOTLINE IS OPERATIONAL AT
305-809-1108. THE CITY OF KEY WEST HAS CLOSED THE OLD TOWN GARAGE
PARK AND RIDE TO THE PUBLIC IN PREPARATION FROM TROPICAL STORM FAY.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE EXACT LOCATIONS OF ANY SPECIFIC
STORM TIDES TO BE CAUSED BY TROPICAL STORM FAY. HOWEVER...STORM
TIDES OF 3 TO POSSIBLY 4 FEET ABOVE SEA LEVEL MAY OCCUR...MAINLY
FROM LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...THE
STORM SURGE IS MOSTLY EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM THE ATLANTIC SIDE.
THE FOLLOWING ARE THE EXPECTED TIMES OF ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES
THROUGHOUT THE KEYS...

AT KEY WEST HARBOR...
11:32 AM MONDAY...12:04 AM TUESDAY...12:16 PM TUESDAY

IN MARATHON AT VACA CUT...
10:21 AM MONDAY...10:53 PM MONDAY...11:05 AM TUESDAY

IN ISLAMORADA AT WHALE HARBOR CHANNEL...
10:38 AM MONDAY...10:57 PM MONDAY...11:21 AM TUESDAY

NEAR KEY LARGO AT ROCK HARBOR...
10;44 AM MONDAY...11:03 PM MONDAY...11:27 AM TUESDAY

...WINDS...
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH BY TONIGHT.
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...FROM 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER KEYS AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY...AND AFFECT
MOST OF THE KEYS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY EVENING.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

FOR KEY WEST...THERE IS A 55 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS
39 MPH OR GREATER. THERE IS A 5 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS
74 MPH OR GREATER.

FOR MARATHON...THERE IS A 56 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS
39 MPH OR GREATER. THERE IS A 4 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 74
MPH OR GREATER.

FOR MIAMI...THERE IS A 44 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 39 MPH
OR GREATER. THERE IS A 3 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 74 MPH OR
GREATER.

...RAINFALL IMPACTS...

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA
KEYS DURING THE PASSAGE OF FAY. THESE AMOUNTS WOULD LIKELY CAUSE
WIDESPREAD PONDING OF WATER...AND SOME FRESHWATER FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AREAS. THE HEAVIEST PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

...TORNADOES...

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH THE PASSAGE OF
TROPICAL STORM FAY...FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

...MARINE IMPACTS...
WINDS WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS TONIGHT...
POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS
LATE.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND HIGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD FROM
ATLANTIC WATERS MONDAY MORNING...TO GULF AND FLORIDA BAY WATERS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD AFFECT ALL KEYS
WATERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SECURE YOUR
VESSELS TODAY. ALL SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT BY LATE
TONIGHT.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT CONCERNING THE IMPACTS OF TROPICAL
STORM FAY TO THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE ISSUED BY 900 AM...OR
SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.

$$

FLZ076>078-171315-
/O.COR.KKEY.HU.A.1006.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
MONROE UPPER KEYS-MONROE MIDDLE KEYS-MONROE LOWER KEYS-
639 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008

...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT DETAILS SPECIFIC PREPAREDNESS AND SAFETY ACTIONS
TO BE TAKEN IN THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY CONCERNING THE
EFFECTS OF TROPICAL STORM FAY.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...FROM
OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. THIS INCLUDES ALL ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS...INCLUDING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 74 MPH OR
GREATER...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36
HOURS.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS PLAN TO BEGIN ISSUING
PROTECTIVE ACTIONS THIS MORNING. THIS IS LIKELY TO INCLUDE A
MANDATORY VISITOR EVACUATION FOR ALL THE KEYS...BEGINNING AT 800 AM
THIS MORNING. RESIDENTS IN LOW-LYING AREAS AND MOBILE HOMES ARE ALSO
LIKELY TO BE MANDATED TO SEEK SAFE SHELTER. AT THIS TIME...MONROE
COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ARE NOT LIKELY TO ORDER A
GENERAL RESIDENT EVACUATION. KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT PLANS TO
CONTINUE OPERATIONS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. HIGH-PROFILE
VEHICLES...SUCH AS RECREATIONAL VEHICLES AND TRUCKS...SHOULD BE OUT
OF THE FLORIDA KEYS PRIOR TO MIDDAY MONDAY. THE KEY WEST EMERGENCY
OPERATIONS CENTER RUMOR CONTROL HOTLINE IS OPERATIONAL AT
305-809-1108. THE CITY OF KEY WEST HAS CLOSED THE OLD TOWN GARAGE
PARK AND RIDE TO THE PUBLIC IN PREPARATION FROM TROPICAL STORM FAY.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE EXACT LOCATIONS OF ANY SPECIFIC
STORM TIDES TO BE CAUSED BY TROPICAL STORM FAY. HOWEVER...STORM
TIDES OF 3 TO POSSIBLY 4 FEET ABOVE SEA LEVEL MAY OCCUR...MAINLY
FROM LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...THE
STORM SURGE IS MOSTLY EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM THE ATLANTIC SIDE.
THE FOLLOWING ARE THE EXPECTED TIMES OF ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES
THROUGHOUT THE KEYS...

AT KEY WEST HARBOR...
11:32 AM MONDAY...12:04 AM TUESDAY...12:16 PM TUESDAY

IN MARATHON AT VACA CUT...
10:21 AM MONDAY...10:53 PM MONDAY...11:05 AM TUESDAY

IN ISLAMORADA AT WHALE HARBOR CHANNEL...
10:38 AM MONDAY...10:57 PM MONDAY...11:21 AM TUESDAY

NEAR KEY LARGO AT ROCK HARBOR...
10;44 AM MONDAY...11:03 PM MONDAY...11:27 AM TUESDAY

...WINDS...
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH BY TONIGHT.
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...FROM 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER KEYS AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY...AND AFFECT
MOST OF THE KEYS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY EVENING.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

FOR KEY WEST...THERE IS A 55 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS
39 MPH OR GREATER. THERE IS A 5 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS
74 MPH OR GREATER.

FOR MARATHON...THERE IS A 56 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS
39 MPH OR GREATER. THERE IS A 4 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 74
MPH OR GREATER.

FOR MIAMI...THERE IS A 44 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 39 MPH
OR GREATER. THERE IS A 3 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 74 MPH OR
GREATER.

...RAINFALL IMPACTS...

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA
KEYS DURING THE PASSAGE OF FAY. THESE AMOUNTS WOULD LIKELY CAUSE
WIDESPREAD PONDING OF WATER...AND SOME FRESHWATER FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AREAS. THE HEAVIEST PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

...TORNADOES...

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH THE PASSAGE OF
TROPICAL STORM FAY...FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

...MARINE IMPACTS...
WINDS WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS TONIGHT...
POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS
LATE.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND HIGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD FROM
ATLANTIC WATERS MONDAY MORNING...TO GULF AND FLORIDA BAY WATERS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD AFFECT ALL KEYS
WATERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SECURE YOUR
VESSELS TODAY. ALL SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT BY LATE
TONIGHT.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT CONCERNING THE IMPACTS OF TROPICAL
STORM FAY TO THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE ISSUED BY 900 AM...OR
SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.

$$

RIZZO/JACOBSON







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