[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT31 KNHC 162348
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
800 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2008

...FAY MOVING WESTWARD BETWEEN JAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA...

AT 8 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR CAYMAN BRAC AND LITTLE CAYMAN.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI...AND FOR CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF SANCTI
SPIRITUS EASTWARD TO GUANTANAMO.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM THE PROVINCE OF
MATANZAS EASTWARD TO SANCTI SPIRITUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
JAMAICA...AND GRAND CAYMAN.

INTERESTS IN WESTERN CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.8 WEST OR ABOUT 200
MILES...320 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA AND ABOUT 60 MILES...100
KM...SOUTHWEST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.

FAY HAS SLOWED DOWN A LITTLE BIT AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE WEST
NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR.  A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
AND NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF FAY WILL BE
MOVING NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND NEAR OR OVER WESTERN CUBA SUNDAY NIGHT OR
MONDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...70KM/HR... WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.  THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA TO THE EAST
OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT FAY IS BECOMING A
LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED. STRENGTHENING COULD BEGIN TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY AND FAY COULD BE APPROACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT NEARS
WESTERN CUBA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.  RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH FAY ARE ALREADY
AFFECTING THE BAHAMAS AND ARE APPROACHING THE FLORIDA STRAITS.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET FEET ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.

FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...JAMAICA...AND
THE NORTHERN CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15
INCHES.  THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.  RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER JAMAICA AND GRAND CAYMAN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1
TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...19.3 N...75.8 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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