[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT31 KNHC 161743
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2008

...CENTER OF FAY MOVING WESTWARD BETWEEN HAITI AND CUBA...

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE AVILA...AND SANCTI SPIRITUS.  A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...HOLGUIN...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND
GUANTANMO.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE
ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS...JAMAICA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN WESTERN CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.9 WEST OR ABOUT
50 MILES...80 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA AND ABOUT
175 MILES...280 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI.

FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR.  A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY.  ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF FAY
WILL BE NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND FAY COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES
CENTRAL CUBA ON SUNDAY.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE FAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET FEET ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.

FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...JAMAICA...AND
THE NORTHERN CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15
INCHES.  THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...19.2 N...74.9 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 16 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




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