[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 161144
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT AUG 16 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY AT 16/1200 UTC IS NEAR 18.8N
72.8W OR ABOUT 30 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT AU PRINCE
HAITI...AND ABOUT 150 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA. FAY
IS MOVING WEST 12 KT. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE CENTER OF FAY WILL MOVE ACROSS HAITI THIS
MORNING...AND WILL BE MOVING NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EASTERN
AND CENTRAL CUBA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS
40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE
FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/ WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. FAY MAY WEAKEN SLIGHTLY WHILE MOVING OVER
HISPANIOLA THIS MORNING...BUT SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
LATER TODAY AND ON SUNDAY AFTER THE CENTER MOVES BACK OVER
WATER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES/165 KM FROM THE CENTER. TIDES OF 1 TO 2 FEET FEET ABOVE
NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE
FLOW. FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...
JAMAICA...AND THE NORTHERN CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. THE CENTER OF FAY
IS MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE
AREA FROM 16.5N TO 18.5N BETWEEN 71W AND 74W...MOSTLY ON TOP OF
THE WATERS SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA BUT STILL TOUCHING PARTS OF THE
COAST. ONE BURST OF PRECIPITATION IS ALONG THE SOUTH CENTRAL
COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ANOTHER AREA OF STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 21N TO 22N BETWEEN 71W AND 72W
OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W/27W SOUTH OF 15N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM TO 240 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
LINE FROM THE EQUATOR AT 40W TO 6N36W 9N28W TO 16N24W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23N49W...TO A 1010 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 14N52W...TO 5N57W IN SURINAME. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 240 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 9N56W 14N52W 23N48W.

...THE ITCZ...
16N16W 6N34W 14N52W 8N61W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ELSEWHERE ALONG THE AFRICA COAST FROM 10N TO 12N EAST OF 17W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA. THE EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA IS FEELING THE EFFECTS OF
CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CYCLONIC
CENTER NEAR 20N82W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
A CYCLONIC CENTER THAT HAS MOVED FROM EL SALVADOR INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SOUTH OF MEXICO'S COAST. OTHER SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN INTERIOR MEXICO WEST OF 100W
IN AREAS OF WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TROPICAL STORM FAY IS SPREADING NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY IN THE COASTAL WATERS ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE
OF HISPANIOLA...A LITTLE BIT IN SOUTH CENTRAL COASTAL DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...AND ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. FROM
SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO SOUTHEASTERN HAITI.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA COAST NEAR 25N...ACROSS WESTERN CUBA ALONG 80W/81W...TO
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 20N82W TO NORTHERN COASTAL
HONDURAS ALONG 86W...TO A CYCLONIC CENTER THAT HAS MOVED FROM
WESTERN EL SALVADOR SIX HOURS AGO...ACROSS SOUTHERN GUATEMALA
TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN JUST SOUTH OF MEXICO.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM ONE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 35N38W TO 32N44W TO 29N52W TO A SECOND
CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 25N55W TO 15N58W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 50W AND
60W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 29N67W...ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA...INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
NEAR 29N19W JUST WEST OF THE CANARY ISLANDS TO A SMALLER
CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 21N23W TO ANOTHER SMALL CYCLONIC CENTER
NEAR 17N32W TO 10N45W.

$$
MT


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