[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160626
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT AUG 16 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0415 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY AT 16/0600 UTC IS NEAR
18.7N 71.4W OR ABOUT 60 MILES/95 KM EAST OF PORT AU PRINCE
HAITI...AND ABOUT 260 MILES/415 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO
CUBA. FAY IS MOVING WEST 12 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. THE CENTER OF T.S. FAY IS SOMEWHERE OVER HISPANIOLA.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT FAY MAY SURVIVE THE MOUNTAINS OF HISPANIOLA
AND ENTER THE WATERS OF GULF OF GONAVE ON SATURDAY MORNING.
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OF FAY IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N
TO 18N BETWEEN 71W AND 73W IN SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL SECTIONS
OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL SECTIONS
OF HAITI. LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER MUCH OF
THE REST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TURKS AND
CAICOS TO GREAT INAGUA AND MAYAGUANA. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES/165 KM. TIDES OF 1 TO 2 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES IN HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN
CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. THESE RAINS
MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W/26W SOUTH OF 15N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 6N TO 15N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N49W...TO A 1009 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 15N52W...TO 9N54W. SCATTERED STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 48W AND 50W.
THE WAVE IS MOVING WEST 15 KT.

...THE ITCZ...
16N17W 6N35W 15N51W 8N61W. THE ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 15N16W
6N34W 15N50W 9N61W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA. THE EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA IS FEELING THE EFFECTS OF
CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CYCLONIC
CENTER NEAR 20N82W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN MEXICO WEST
OF 92W...IN AREAS OF WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW JUST WEST OF GUATEMALA
IN MEXICO...BETWEEN THE WESTERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND
100W...AND FROM 20N TO 28N BETWEEN 100W AND 110W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TROPICAL STORM FAY IS SPREADING STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO SOUTHEASTERN
HAITI. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST NEAR 25N...ACROSS WESTERN CUBA ALONG
80W/81W...TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 20N82W TO
NORTHERN COASTAL HONDURAS ALONG 86W...TO A CYCLONIC CENTER IN
WESTERN EL SALVADOR

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM ONE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 34N39W TO 32N45W TO 28N52W TO A SECOND
CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 24N54W TO 17N59W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. A SURFACE RIDGE
PASSES THROUGH 33N48W TO 30N60W 28N71W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
NEAR 29N19W JUST WEST OF THE CANARY ISLANDS TO A SMALLER
CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 21N23W TO ANOTHER SMALL CYCLONIC CENTER
NEAR 18N31W TO 12N42W.

$$
MT




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