[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 152359
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI AUG 15 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM FAY IS CENTERED NEAR 18.6. 70.2W OR ABOUT 35
MILES... 55 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND ABOUT 335 MILES...540 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF GUANTANAMO CUBA. T.S. FAY IS MOVING WEST AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC
AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. T.S. FAY WAS UPGRADED AT
2100 UTC AFTER  NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT FOUND A CLOSED CENTER AT 1500 FT FLIGHT-LEVEL. FAY IS
OVER THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE
THE ENTIRE WIDTH OF HISPANIOLA IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS. T.S. FAY
IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES.  THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. PRESENTLY NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION
IS OVER THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN
67W-71W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 15N-20N
BETWEEN 66W-72W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E TROPICAL ATLC IS ALONG 25W S OF 15N
MOVING W 15 KT. A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE IS NOTED
ON MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 21W-23W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 21W-27W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC IS ALONG 49W/50W S OF
20N MOVING W 15 KT. A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED ON THE WAVE AXIS
NEAR 15N50W. A WELL DEFINED INVERTED-V LOW CLOUD PATTERN IS ALSO
NOTED. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
15N-18N BETWEEN 47W-50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FURTHER N FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 44W-47W.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 15N16W 6N34W 15N50W 9N61W. BESIDES
THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 27W-31W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 31W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A STATIONARY FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS FROM S GEORGIA TO CENTRAL
TEXAS. PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY IS PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION OVER THE N GULF OF MEXICO N OF 26N.  MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER IS OVER THE S GULF S OF 25N EXCEPT FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 18N-20N
BETWEEN 90W-92W. 5-10 KT SLY SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER N TEXAS NEAR 27N106W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING E TO
CENTRAL FLORIDA. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE
GULF N OF 21N. EXPECT CONTINUED FRONTAL ACTIVITY TO PRODUCE
CONVECTION OVER THE N GULF STATES N OF 26N DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ALSO EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
T.S. FAY IS TRAVERSING HISPANIOLA. SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...
MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADEWINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE
BASIN. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF N
COLOMBIA FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 75W-77W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS MOSTLY INLAND OVER PANAMA AND
COSTA RICA FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 76W-86W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR HISPANIOLA AT 22N70W.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN BETWEEN E OF 80W.
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER S AMERICA AND OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 65W-75W. EXPECT... CONVECTION OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO THE TROPICAL
WAVE. ALSO EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND
CENTRAL AMERICA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DOMINATE 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 37N33W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA NEAR 23N80W. PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY IS PRODUCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 28N AND W OF 75W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 25N54W.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 32N42W. AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH IS OVER THE TROPICAL E ATLANTIC NEAR 22N35W. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 29N17W. EXPECT THE TROPICAL
WAVES AND T.S. FAY TO BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER PRODUCERS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA



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